NBA PREVIEWS:

New Jersey @ Orlando

The Magic beat the Suns last game in a late comeback and it was the second consecutive game they did that, as they beat the Sixers in the same way. However they committed 23 turnovers against the Suns and this is a huge number for a top team. Today they will face the Nets who are coming from a disheartening loss at home against the Celtics. Somehow the Nets are playing better lately, as they are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games and they have revenge after being spanked by 84-101 in the only game against Orlando this season. Although the Magic have some matchup advantages in this game, I remember that they will play @ Boston and @ Detroit after tonight?s game and they may overlook the Nets tonight.


Atlanta @ Charlotte

The Bobcats are playing their best basketball of the season right now and they have won their last 4 games. They made an impressive performance last game against the Bulls even though they were in a bad spot (after a long road trip), they still played good defense and shared the ball. They will play tonight against the Hawks, who are coming from a loss in New York against the Knicks. The Knicks deserved to win because they played harder then the Hawks, maybe it was a wake up call for the Hawks, as they really need to bring more effort to the court if they want to win on the road. For this game, the Bobcats have triple revenge, as they lost all the previous 3 matchups against the Hawks and usually this is a great spot to back the Bobcats, as they are playing great lately and playing at home while having revenge is always the spot we want to make a play, however there is the question of the matchup and this issue favors clearly the Hawks. I think that the Bobcats are the little poor version of the Hawks' team and maybe that's why they are 0-3 against them this season.


Miami @ Toronto

The Raptors need badly to win if they want to make a late push into the playoff hunt. They lost all their three games in the last road trip although those matches were against good teams (Phoenix, Dallas and Houston) and now return home in a bad mood. Today they will face Miami who is coming from a big home win against the Suns. Dwayne Wade is playing as well as we have ever seen and the Heat may have a shot to grab the home court advantage in the playoffs. However since the trade between them and the Raptors (Jermaine O'Neal and Moon) the Heat are yet to win consecutive games, as they are 4-4 in those games. I expect a great effort from the Raptors tonight, but down the stretch can they hold a red hot Dwayne Wade? Note that the Raptors are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a home underdog of 0.5-4.5.


Cleveland @ Boston

In the Celtics' 115-111 win Wednesday night, the Nets scored more points in regulation than any other Boston opponent this season. The Celtics have surrendered 99 or more points in four of the last six games. And their defense will receive an even tougher test when they host the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight. The Celtics are having some problems to fare well without Garnett. They are 2-2 L4 games and their defense isn't playing at their usual high note. This is perfectly normal taking in account if we get that the actual best defensive player of the year is been out. The Cavs meanwhile bounced back from a humiliating defeat suffered in Houston and won the last 4 games. This can be a statement game for them however they are yet to defeat the Celtics and the Magic on the road. The weirdest thing of this series is that the home team won the last 14 games! Having such spread in here it is the same to guess who will win tonight.


Milwaukee @ Chicago

These two teams are fighting for the last spot of the Eastern conference playoff picture, so we might consider this game as a big game. Note that this game is the final game of the series and the Bulls are leading 2-1, so a possible Bulls win today would give them the advantage in a tiebreaker scenario. The Bucks lost consecutive games and the although they lost by 22 points against the Cavs last game, it was a normal loss considering the way the Cavs are playing at home, so naturally I expect a better performance by them tonight, as the Bulls aren't a consistent team right now. They were spanked on the road in Charlotte, but bounced back against the Warriors in their last game, but then again, can they be consistent in consecutive games? Remember that they are 9-19 ATS after playing a home game this season!


Phoenix @ Houston

The Rockets lost their last game in Utah against the Jazz, but they were extremely competitive, despite playing on a brutal spot (double back to back games and playing in Utah). Now they want to make a bounce back and play at home is the right place for them to bounce back, as they have won their last 10 games in the Toyota Center. Today they will face the Suns who are coming from back to back losses in Florida against Orlando and Miami. It's fun to watch these Suns playing but while they can't make some defensive stops down the stretch, it will be extremely hard for them to win on the road. They have a terrible record against teams with winning records: 8-21 ATS!  


Denver @ Utah

The Nuggets bounced back with style yesterday by spanking the Blazers and gained some ground in the fight for the Division. For today the challenge is even bigger, as they will play in Utah against the Jazz a back to back game. The Jazz are the only undefeated team since the all star break and they look impressive. now that they are finally healthy. That's why we have such large spread in here for them. This game is somehow similar of the Jazz's last game, as their opponent is playing in worst conditions than the Jazz are. The last time these two teams meet each other, the Nuggets spanked the Jazz by 20 points at home, now it's payback time for Utah, however for the Nuggets, Carmelo Anthony had a monster game last night after his suspension and he looks to be at his best level right now.

FREE PICK:

Minnesota Timberwolves @  Los Angeles Lakers

  In this game the Lakers are heavily favored against Minnesota. Honestly I don't think that in a game with a big spread, the value is always on the dog. No way! If I think that one team will win by 20 points or more why in the hell wouldn't I bet on them if they are favored by just 15 points? The big issue is to analyze the value and a -3 points line can have the same value as a -15 points line, it only depends from what you expect both teams to do.

So, I believe the Lakers has all the conditions for a blowout against the struggling Wolves tonight. Lately the Lakers were a tired team, after all playing 9 games in 15 days is a brutal schedule and the Lakers felt that, as in their last 3 games, they lost in Phoenix and Denver and defeated the Grizzlies by just 10 points, in an "ugly win". For this game, the scenario is completely different, not only because they had 2 days off to rest, as they also had a much needed day off last Wednesday:

"I think we gained some ground by having a day off," Jackson said before the Lakers play host to the lackluster Minnesota Timberwolves tonight. "It's always good for these guys. They came in eager to work."

Note that the Lakers after playing at home and while having at least two days off, they are 5-2 ATS at home and 4-0 ATS L4 games in that situation. The great news for us is that we have a Lakers team exclusively focused on this game. Do you realize that the Lakers' next game will just be next Monday? A possible lookahead situation for them is virtually impossible, as they will have time to prepare the next game. The Lakers look to complete a sweep tonight against Minnesota and in their last game, they had some problems to win, as they only won by 3 points: 111-108. They allowed 108(!) points and Minnesota shot 50% from the field. After the game, Coach Phil Jackson called the Lakers' defense "pathetic." So I expect a better effort from the Lakers tonight.

Meanwhile the Wolves are a completely lost team without Al Jefferson. They are 1-9 L10 games, but the most important thing is that they can't even compete at home! They lost by 17, 20, 11 and 14 points in their last 4 home games and without their only reliable scorer, they struggled to score. Facing a rested and focused team of the Lakers tonight on the road will be too much for them. I think that the Lakers will be in full control of the game and 15 points is an accessible line for them. Take the Lakers in here.

Regular Play on Los Angeles Lakers (-15)

I'm coming from another winning day (the 7th in the last 8 days) and for today I have already updated one play on the card. Possibly this will be a large card so I'll release a free pick later... more to come. 

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