Hello Pregame Community,

 

We have a big card for tonight,the daily package contains 4 plays: 3 sides and one total

 

NBA Previews:

 

Atlanta @ Orlando

Interesting home-home series in here with Orlando and Atlanta, Orlando got their revenge done defeating Atlanta on the road, remember that they previous lost at home in the season opener, the key for this game is to know if Atlanta can repeat the upset and why not? They are 12-3 ATS as underdogs this season and just look to what Stan Van Gundy said after the Wednesday's game: "Tonight, they missed," Van Gundy said. "I don't anticipate they'll do that two nights in a row. When they play us Friday, it could be a tough night." Joe Johnson had an off night with just 5-17 FG so likely he will bounce back tonight, note also that Orlando won the last 10 home games and they are 15-3 SU at home this season.

 

Charlotte @ Philadelphia

The Bobcats had a major letdown against the Cavs losing by 30 points after upsetting the reigning champs Boston Celtics at home. Larry Brown has very critic after that lopsided loss: "Some players our players play against, maybe they don't think they have a chance. Maybe when you don't think you can win, you don't have any chance to win." You can argue that Brown isn't the right coach for this team but at least this team has some identity; they were 3-10 ATS on the road after a loss of more than 10 points last season and this season with Larry Brown they are 4-0 ATS in the same trend! The Sixers are playing at their best; they beat on the road the red hot Bucks and Elton Brand have to adjust to this team and not the reverse. This is a revenge game for the Sixers as they lost ugly in Charlotte and I expect a good effort from both teams in here.

 

Boston @ Cleveland

"We know it is not just another game,"; "It's our turn. It's payback time." These were the comments that some Cavaliers' players said about this game and of course we expect a great effort from the home team. The spread is -4 points to the Cavs and although the Celtics are 12-3 ATS as underdogs since the last season the fact is that the Cavs looks too stronger right now. They are 18-0 at home this season, they want their revenge after losing to the Celtics on the Playoffs and in the season opener and I remember that the home team is 10-0 SU in the last matchups between these teams. The Celtics are 2-6 L8 games and obviously they aren't playing well lately on both floors of the court, last game the Rockets limiting them to two field goals over the final 8:34 and scoring the final 5 points as Boston's best shooters - Ray Allen and Paul Pierce - were off the mark. This will be likely a ballgame as I can't see any teams to gain a huge advantage during the game, the key is that the Cavs have Lebron James and the Celtics can't finish off anybody lately.

 

Houston @ Oklahoma

The Rockets finally snapped their slump and they won in Boston being 10 points underdogs, the key was their defense as they limited the Celtics to just 11 points on the fourth quarter, remember that in the previous two games Atlanta and Philadelphia scored more than 100 points and well above 55% FG! Tonight they will face the lowly Thunder who is coming from a terrible loss on the road in Minnesota. The Thunder looked like a competitive team covering 8 of the last 9 games and then they had a terrible letdown losing by 42 points! Of course I expect them to perform better today but who a young team will react after a 42 points loss? Remember the 13-5 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.   

 

LA Clippers @ New Orleans

 The Hornets suffered in Utah the worst loss (90-116) of the season, they trailed as much as 33 points and they were outrebounded in an amazing fashion: 26-55! The team simply ran out of gas after their big win in LA against the Lakers the day before, of course I expect a bounce back tonight. Meanwhile The Clippers lost yesterday 84-106 in San Antonio, this was the ninth consecutive loss and playing back to back games against a fired up team could be problematic for the Clippers and the 14.5 points is a decent price for this game.

Washington @ Chicago

 The Bulls finally won one game, they defeated the lowly Kings at home and they are 2-6 L8 games, the key for that win was clearly the return of Drew Gooden. With Gooden , the Bulls outrebounded one opponent for the first time in 4 games and Gooden had 10 rebounds coming from the bench. Tonight the Bulls will play against the Wizards who lost at home last game against Toronto, just look to the offensive outcome of the Wizards in the last games: 85, 83, 80, 80 and 93 points! The good news is that the team is defending better lately; they are 6-2 ATS L8 games and then can do some damage tonight.

 

Memphis @ Toronto

The Raptors are probable playing their best basketball of the season so far, this is surprisingly as the team are playing without Jose Calderon and Jermaine O'Neal, with the absence of O'Neal, Andrea Bargnani is playing major minutes, in fact he has started at center the last five games and averaged 21.8 points over that span. He was 8-of-9 from the field and 4-of-5 from 3-point range Wednesday. Today they will face the struggling Grizzlies who after a big win at home against Dallas suffered back to back losses against Minnesota and the Nets. Rookie Marc Gasol since Milicic's injury has averaged 15 points, 8.4 rebounds and 1.6 blocks in the past seven games bringing some toughness in the paint for the Grizzlies, the problem is that this isn't enough; note that they are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.

 

New Jersey Nets @ Milwaukee

The Bucks after a great phase are again the same old inconsistent team, in the last 3 games they lost at Charlotte 92-102, then they had a phony win against Toronto 107-97 (they made a 10-0 run finishing off the Raptors) and they lost home against the Sixers allowing them to shot 51.4 % FG and 50% 3pts. Meanwhile the Nets even without Devin Harris managed to win consecutive home games against Sacramento and Memphis, they covered the last 4 games and Devin Harris is questionable for tonight. The Nets are 12-4 ATS as away dogs and they can bite tonight but I expect also a bounce back from Milwaukee.

 

Detroit @ Denver

 This is an emotional game as Billups and Iverson will meet their former teams, naturally for Billups there's more emotional as he spent more time in Detroit and he was the leadership of that team, saying that I think that this game will be an interesting game. Rasheed Wallace is probable for this game and Richard Hamilton is doubtful, at the same time Carmelo Anthony is out and Denver didn't needed him to easily cruise past Miami in the last game. The Nuggets are in a home cooking situation as they won the last 3 games and they will play the next 4 games in Pepsi Center, meanwhile Detroit is 7-1 L8 games and their last 5 games were decided by 8 or fewer points. Note: Denver is 12-1 when Billups scores at least 20 points

 

Sacramento @ Miami

Sacramento is home dog in this game and automatically they have some value taking in account that Miami is 0-3 ATS as away favorite this season, but the Kings are such a disappointing team, although they ended the road trip in a 3-1 ATS mark the fact is that they could win all the 4 games and they didn't take advantage in any, usually teams who plays for the first time at home after a road trip comes flat and this could be the case, I like Miami to win in here as Dwayne Wade likely will control the game down the stretch but Miami favorite on the road? No thanks!

 

Indiana @ Lakers

The Pacers bounced back from a lopsided loss in Denver and defeated Phoenix 113-110 in a thriller game, tonight they will face the Lakers in a revenge game for the Lakers as the Pacers won in Indiana 118-117. That's the major factor for such huge spread line (14.5), of course the Lakers are a potent team especially at home but they don't have the depth that they have a couple of weeks ago, remember that Odom, Farmar and Walton are out due to injuries. The Lakers will win this game but I think the 14.5 points are a fair price.

Dallas @ Phoenix 

This is the last big game of the day and Dallas is carrying some momentum, they defeated last night the Knicks even with Dirk Nowitzki limited due to a flu, he had only 10 points for a 3-13 FG performance, meanwhile the Suns are getting used to disheartening losses, they lost in the Christmas day against the Spurs in a late trey of Roger Mason Jr. and in the last game Danny Granger did the same thing. The Suns are just 1-4 ATS L5 games and Shaquille O'Neal is questionable for tonight, I understand that the Suns are looking to bounce back tonight but I wouldn't be surprised if Dallas wins in here, they are playing better basketball.

 

FREE PICK:

 

  @ 

   BOSTON                    CLEVELAND

 

This will be a great game for sure, but if this was a couple of weeks ago surely the Celtics wouldn't be 4 points dogs for this game. They are really struggling right now, a 2-6 record in the last 8 games speaks by itself, but it's important to find out the main reason for this unexpected struggle.

In my opinion it is clearly the offense the main reason for this struggle and I will explain why. Well, they are the second worst team of the league in Turnovers with a dismal number of 15.8 TO/game and if this team can't shoot well, they are in trouble. This is happening lately as the Celtics just had 42.6 % FG on the last 3 games and if we don't include the wins against the lowly teams of Washington and Sacramento, Boston averaged 88.0 ppg in the last 8 games, look, they scored 88 points against the Knicks (season low allowed for the Knicks), I think that I don't need to tell more about this fact.

So, how will this team score against Cleveland tonight? We are talking about the best defensive team of the league with just 89.1 ppg and 42.0 % FG allowed. I expect a huge effort from them tonight. I remember that this is a huge revenge game to the Cavs, not only for the elimination from the postseason last year, but also for the defeat suffered in the season opener.

Just look at some statements of the Cavaliers players:

"We know it is not just another game," James said after practice on Thursday. "We're looking forward to the challenge."

"They got us up there," Cavs guard Mo Williams said. "It's our turn. It's payback time."

Cleveland had a nice and safe win last game against the Bobcats and they are 27-12 Under after a blowout win by 15 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Although this game looks like tailed for a Cavaliers win I won't back them. I expect a great answer from Boston tonight, this team in the past already showed that they are an impressive dog, do you remember the name of the team that ended the historical winning streak from the Rockets in the last season? It was Boston!

Boston will once again show who their defense is great, in fact the Under is 9-2 in Celtics last 11 games as a road underdog, look to what their captain Paul Pierce said from the recent struggles:

"Right now, our defense is not getting the job done," Pierce said. "That's one of the first things we talk about. That's the type of team we are, and when we don't defend, it doesn't allow us to get out and run the break. We're not causing turnovers like we want to. You can defend us in the half-court and get us into a slowdown game, which we can play. But our goal is go out there and shut things down. We are allowing too much dribble penetration. I told the guys we need to get our defensive swagger back. It's been broke these last 10 or 12 days. We know what we're capable of - it's just about going back to the basics and doing what we do.

I think that the Cavs will have their offensive struggles as well, remember that Ilgauskas is still out and with Ben Wallace and Andy Varejao the Cavs are a powerful rebounding team but they lack a threat down the post as "big Z" represents for them.

Finally I'll present a huge trend that tell us the under is a great bet for this game: when the total line is between 180 and 189.5 points - in a game involving two good defensive teams (41.5-43.5% FG Allowed), in a game involving two good rebounding teams (+3 to +5.5 reb/game) the Under cashed 46-18 since 1996, so I'm taking the under in here.

REGULAR PLAY ON UNDER 184

 

 

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Good Luck