NBA Eastern Conference Preview

 

Southeast Division

Orlando - 47.5
Miami - 37.5
Washington - 37.5
Atlanta - 36.5
Charlotte - 36.5

This seems to be the weakest division on the East, even though 3 teams of this division have qualified to the Playoffs last season: Orlando, Washington and Atlanta. Orlando finished last season with a 50-32 record and it doesn't seem hard for them to break the 50 wins barrier once again this season. Curiously the Magic had more wins on the road last season than at home (27-14 vs 25-16) and just Boston had a better record on the road than them last season. Orlando clearly dominated their division rivals, going 12-4 in divisional games last season and their favoritism will continue this season. Their goal of getting better at home this season should be easy to achieve and at the same time, Howard will become an even tougher matchup for their opponents.

The other four teams should remain very close in the standings during the whole season. Miami is in rebuilding mode, with a new coach and even though they have a lot of talented players, their roster seems to be disproportional, without a true big man to play at the center position. Wade seems to be back at 100% and with him, the Heat won't be that competitive team that struggled in the final minutes of the game anymore. Beasley can also be a good second solution in the offense. The Bobcats is a little bit like Miami. Rebuilding team with a new coach, however there weren't any big chances on the roster and the challenge of Larry Brown will be to put the team playing good defense, just like he loves to do on his teams. Washington is a team which is already being massacred by injuries and they will be without Arenas during the first months of the season. Eddie Jordan has already proved that he can make some miracles and they will need to continue happening this season.

• Prediction: Orlando Magic Over 47.5 Wins

Central Division

Detroit - 50.5
Cleveland - 47.5
Chicago - 40.5
Indiana - 34.5
Milwaukee - 30.5

Detroit's line is 50 wins and that's nothing more to them than to repeat what they have done since the 2001-2002 season: 50 or more wins in the regular season! That won't be hard to achieve once again, after all the team is basically the same. Even though they have a new coach, Michael Curry knows the Pistons extremely well and he was an assistant of Flip Saunders, so the 50 wins barrier is an achievable goal for them this season.

The Cavs disappointed last season, especially on the regular season. The team finished with a 45-37 record and 7-9 in divisional games, which is surprising as just Detroit was a strong team during the season. Now with some changes, the Cavs may perform better this season, but I think 47 wins is a fair number and I don't see any value on their future wins line.

The Bucks and the Bulls are in a similar situation for this season. They are coming from terrible seasons, they have a new coach and they have done some changes to make their teams stronger. In these conditions, the teams become unpredictable and their seasons will depend from how well the players will adapt to the system of their new coaches. The Bulls finished last season with a 33-49 record and their line for this season is 40,5 wins, which is basically the same to ask if the Bulls will go to the Playoffs this season or not. Honestly both things can happen, as we are talking about a team with a disproportional roster: too many guards and a frontcourt which lacks quality, in comparison to the other top teams in the East. In Milwaukee, the situation is different and besides having a more experienced coach than Del Negro, the team seems to have a more solid roster for every position and the chemistry between the players and the adaptation to a new system seems to be the main obstacles they need him to break this season. The 30 wins doesn't seem hard to be achieved, but as they are basically a whole new team, I'm not going to take risks with them.

The Pacers are a curious team. They are keeping the same coach and the same system, but at the same time they have some changes on their roster. Their line for the regular season is 35 wins, which is basically asking them if they will do better or not than last season. However, if a team wants to play in a run and gun system, they better have at least one good playmaker and a powerful big man, who can score easily in the transitions. The Suns had success playing with that style, as they had Nash and Stoudemire. And who has Indiana for these two tasks? T.J. Ford and Nesterovic? Typically a run and gun team has problems against good defensive teams, with a powerful frontcourt. That's why they went 0-4 vs Detroit, 0-3 vs Boston and 0-4 vs Cleveland last season. I think those struggles should return this season, with things getting even more serious for them, as the Sixers and Toronto are stronger this season. On the other side, the Pacers took advantage very well last season of the struggles of Miami, Knicks, Nets and Bucks and went 12-4 against them. However, that won't happen again, as these teams will be more competitive this season. The schedule of the team in January will be brutal for them: they will go on a road trip into the West of 5 games in 8 days, just to comeback home and face Detroit and Toronto in a row. So, I think it will be extremely hard for them to do better than last season, so my bet is Indiana to about 30 wins maximum this season.

• Prediction: Indiana Pacers Under 35.5 Wins

Atlantic Division

Boston - 53.5
Philadelphia - 48.5
Toronto - 47.5
Knicks - 31.5
NJ Nets - 27.5

This division is in theory the strongest division of the East this season, with three teams which should reach the Playoffs and have a lot more wins than losses in the regular season: Boston, Philadelphia and Toronto. Honestly, even though the Sixers and the Raptors are stronger this season, the difference between the Celtics and these two teams is much bigger than the 5 wins the bookies are telling us (Boston 53.5 wins - Sixers 48.5).

Boston finished last season's regular season with a 66-16 record and even though, it will be hard for them to repeat such performance this season, the bookies have put their line for this season 13 wins below from their last season's record! Boston knows how to handle the pressure, even though they had done nothing two seasons ago, they were one of the favorites to win the league last season and not only they had no problems in handling the pressure, the team kept winning even without Garnett and Allen on the field. The winning dynamic of the team is huge and it won't go away this season.

The Sixers have potential to do better than the 40-42 record they had last season and with the addition of Elton Brand, the Sixers have become one of the main contenders to win the East. The sportsbooks are offering a line of 48.5 wins for them, which is a fair number, as they will have a lot of competition on their division and we don't know how they will handle the pressure of having to win.

The Knicks and the Nets will be the underdog teams on this division. The Knicks are capable of everything and D'Antoni's system uses to work very well on the regular season. Their line is at 32 wins, which is nothing else than do better than the Knicks with Isiah Thomas did two seasons ago and please don't tell me that's impossible to do. The Nets are a totally different case. They are the weakest team on this division, which will have 3 teams in the Playoffs and when that happens, there is always a team which finishes the season with a terrible record. For example, last season in the Northwest division with Utah, Denver and Portland with positive records, Minnesota and Seattle finished the season with just 22 and 20 wins. Also in the Southwest division, Memphis had 22 wins. With the Nets thinking already in the future, I wouldn't be surprised if the team starts thinking on the draft lottery at a certain part of the team, in order to have a better chance of getting the top pick next season.

Toronto is considered by the bookies to be at the same level of Cleveland this season, with a line of 47.5 wins. And 47 wins was exactly the number of wins the team had two seasons ago, when they won the division. However, everybody besides the Raptors, all teams on this division struggled during that season. Boston finished with 24-58 record, the Knicks with 33-49, the Sixers with 35-47 and the Nets with a 41-41 record. The Raptors finished that season with a 11-5 record in divisional games and there is no way that will happen this season. Boston will always have more than 50 wins this season, the Sixers will have a positive record and unless the Knicks and the Nets have less than 20 wins each this season (unlikely), Toronto won't be able to score nothing close to 50 wins this season. As I've written on the team preview, the roster isn't deep and especially Jermaine O'Neal doesn't have a good backup. I am an optimistic person by Nature, but the chances of JO playing the 82 games of the season is close to 0 and at the moment I'm writing this, I saw that O'Neal already got injured on a preseason game. 48 wins for this team? No way! The line is too high.

• Prediction: Boston Celtics Over 53.5 Wins
• Prediction: Toronto Raptors Under 47.5 Wins
• Prediction: New Jersey Nets Under 27.5 Wins

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