quite a week in store for golf fans. PINEHURST #2 is restored to an old style look that has no rough and no water hazards, quite a unique style of golf in majors. course isnt hiding itself, its right there in front of you, and its up to the player to execute the shots at hand. you look at the last 2 US OPEN champs that won on this course (CAMPBELL & STEWART) and the other players that came up short those years, all of the players had some pretty solid years going into that US OPEN week as well, as playing well after. while CAMPBELL came out of qualifiers, 05 was his best year in his career. STEWART was just building and building, and 99 US OPEN was another piece, unfortunately for golf, we werent able to see more of STEWART.
will keep this writeup short, but many conflicting things this week to cap were how the new pga season would affect the top class of the field and their form, the no rough/waste area system this week, and most importantly the weather.
the new schedule my feeling is that while most players normally plan their season around the MASTERS, i personally think most said, ya its nice to go and plan for the MASTERS, but look at whats ahead the next 4months after the US OPEN. if i can be ready for the US OPEN and after, you can really make a name for yourself. so, my feeling while im struggling to think this week could be it, youre going to start to see the top of the OWGR players start to really pick up their games and be ready if and when the time comes, this week could be it for someone at the top of the OWGR, but i feel like this week could be still slightly leaned to the FIELD, due to the top of OWGR may not be quite in top form. this time last year, most players were well in the middle of their seasons. right now, it feels like its SEPT and were only in 2nd wk of JUNE.
simply for the waste areas this week, its going to take a lot of luck, even with the widened fairways, players crumbled last year @ MERION on the weekend, granted much narrower fairways and rough extremely thick, but the pressure of it all will make youre driving distance control even harder, and while again fairways may be wider, you have got to really have the shot pictured in your head and then have to execute to avoid having to be lucky with the lie you draw if you were to miss the fairway. CAMPBELL and STEWART were top10 in fairways hit. of course hitting the fairways isnt the only important thing, your shot after will be just as important, hell EVERY SHOT LIKE ALWAYS WILL BE IMPORTANT, but this week, after the tee game, your 2nd shot into some of these greens will again, have to have just the right amount of distance control. AGAIN, with this being a US OPEN, its that much harder, and you wont be perfect of course, so being in control of your emotions and game while setting yourself up for the next shot is what makes a US OPEN champion.
to then lead to my final point, like always, WEATHER will be a huge factor this week. if there wasnt any rain this week, id have a hard time seeing the winner being better than +5. the length of this course, while being mostly hard pan all throughout, to then add all random waste areas around the shaven tight hard pan fairways would just be brutal if there wasnt any moisture. HOWEVER, there is good chance there should be some rain this week to give the players some relief. even without rough, having to control your ball from these tight fairways could be a tough thing for these players to gauge how much spin theyll get once their ball lands on the greens. even having a good break and not having a bad lie in the waste area for your 2nd shot wont be an easy task to gauge how much your ball will spin back. so weather will play an important role on the firmness of the fairways and the greens.
all those 3 angles to me, has me leaning to the field. should be a wide open week, 1 last thing to go with my bet of winning score being over 278.5, is that last year, perception going into MERION is that with all the heavy rain and course being so short, that the players would beat it up. i was hearing -10 and better winning scores, books had it -10 o/u. i was shaking my head the whole time, but i wussed out. this week, with it now being 278.5, STEWART won with -2, CAMPBELL E. course has had other alterations made it to other than the waste areas, even the hardest hole in 05 had more yds added to it, and knowing the USGA, they arent going to make it easier for the players, sure the fairways are wider, but again, without any moisture this course would just be impossible. this course has the size of a WHISTLING STRAITS(tho par72) while being as tightly and hard packed as a SHINNECOCK HILLS GC. WS held the 10 PGA, SHINNECOCK the 04 US OPEN.
again, a unique style golf course, and should create alot of drama late like US OPENs normally do.
WITH ALL OF THAT SAID, finally, here are my plays. see if i can get my season back in the right direction.
US OPEN(-7.39u)
35/1 J. FURYK(.5u) -- to win L (t12)
40/1 H. MATSUYAMA(.5u) -- to win L (t35)
50/1 J. WALKER(.5u) -- to win L (t9)
50/1 S. STRICKER(.5u) -- to win L (t21)
100/1 J. SENDEN(.5u) -- to win L (mc)
3.2/1 J. FURYK(.5u) -- top10 L
3.5/1 H. MATSUYAMA(.5u) -- top10 L
3.8/1 J. WALKER(.5u) -- top10 W *partial
4.35/1 S. STRICKER(.5u) -- top10 L
5.9/1 J. SENDEN(.5u) -- top10 L
stricker(-125) / snedeker(1u) -- tour mu *bovada L (t21 - t9)
senden(-109) / todd(.5u) -- tour mu L (mc - t17)
els(-122) / lowry(.5u) -- tour mu W (t35 - mc)
winning score over(-150) 278.5(2u) L (KAYMER 271)
YTD = (40) +.31u