The third and final installment of my Oscar handicapping.
#1) Oscar loves the favorites
#2) Oscar loves to share the wealth
#3 Oscar loves to copy
OK, maybe copy is the wrong word. What I actually mean is that a good indicator of who will win the Academy Award can be found in researching who received the top prize in the other major award ceremonies.
For any film to have any chance at the Oscar they need to have already received a win from one of the other award organizations. Here is a list of the winners of the TOP awards this season:
BAFTA (British version of Academy Awards):
Picture: The Artist
Director: Michael Hazanivicius (The Artist)
Actor: Jean Dujardin (The Artist)
Actress: Meryll Streep (The Iron Lady)
Sup. Actor: Christopher Plummer (Beginners)
Sup. Actress: Octavia Spencer (The Help)
Original Screenplay: The Artist
Adapted Screenplay: Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Animated Film: Rango
Original Music: The Artist
Cinematography: The Artist
Editing: Senna
Production Design: Hugo
Costume Design: The Artist
Sound: Hugo
Make Up: The Iron Lady
Visual Effects: Harry Potter
Golden Globes:
Pictures: The Decendants (drama), The Artist (musical/comedy)
Director: Martin Scorsese (Hugo)
Actors: George Clooney (drama), Jean Dujardin (comedy/musical)
Actresses: Meryl Streep (drama), Michelle Williams (comedy/drama)
Sup. Actor: Christopher Plummer (Beginners)
Sup. Actress: Octavia Spencer (The Help)
Screenplay: Midnight in Paris
Original Score: The Artist
Animated Film: Adventures of Tintin
SAG Awards (Screen Actors Guild):
Actor: Jean Dujardin (The Artist)
Actress: Viola Davis (The Help)
Sup. Actor: Christopher Plummer
Sup. Actress: Octavia Spencer
DGA Award (Director's Guild of America):
Michael Hazanivicius (The Artist)
ACE Award (American Cinema Editors):
The Decendants (drama)
The Artist (comedy/musical)
ASC Award (American Society of Cinematographers):
Emmanuel Lubezki (The Tree of Life)
Bottom line. EVERY film that receives an award this Sunday will have already won one of these awards in their respective categories. So we can rule out anyone not on this list.
***Most interesting stat to me is the DGA winner has gone on to win the Oscar for Best Director 58 of 64 times (90.6%).