WTA - French Open - Ekaterina Makarova (+16500)
Let me just start by saying, we will probably lose this bet. I bet you could’ve guessed that from the odds. That doesn’t mean this isn’t one of the more bizarre futures lines that I’ve ever seen. Think about this. There are only 8 ladies in the world ranked above Emak but there are 23 with better French odds. Why is that? Well, all I can figure is that there is this general belief around the tour that Emak doesn’t really like playing on clay. I have heard this from a few tennis folks over the last couple of years but my research says that it’s really unfounded. I think we all know her favorite surface would be a hard one but to say she doesn’t like the dirt is ignoring her results.
Right off the top, Emak is 76-58(56.7%) in her career on clay. She knows how to win on the stuff. One thing I will say, her clay court season is short, usually just 2 warm-up tournaments before the French. She hasn’t played a clay tourney after the French since 2009. I think this is what is misinterpreted as a dislike of clay. I just don’t see it that way and I don’t think she does either. A look deeper shows that Emak is 15-8 on clay since 2011 vs. players outside the T20 so she usually wins the matches that she’s supposed to. Another thing that I think a lot of people overlook is how well she has done the L3 years at the French in doubles. Teamed with fellow Russian, Elena Vesnina, she has posted a 10-2 record including winning the title in 2013. Let me repeat that. Emak is a 2013 French Open Ladies Doubles Champion. Does that sound like a player who doesn’t like playing on clay?
Emak has a .500 or better H2H record against 9 of the 23 ladies with better odds. I look at a Kuznetsova at 40/1 and think that Emak certainly has just as good of a chance at winning the 2015 French as she does. Even players like Stosur at 80/1 and Safarova at 100/1 just don’t deserve this respect over Emak. I will gladly take this 165/1, feeling confident that she will get us to the round of 16 and with a favorable draw, the quarterfinals. At that point, anything can happen!