Couldn't let the Pros have all the fun!
NO Safety (-800)
The average bettor much prefers to bet a little to win a lot. No American sporting event has a higher percentage of average (i.e., recreational) bettors than the Super Bowl. Upwards of 90% of Nevada action on SB48 is expected to be from non-professionals. The appeal of the big payout allows sportsbooks to offer a deflated price on long shot pros and still attract ample action. The flipside of the deflated payouts is the “No” price is discounted. This concept also applies to no overtime, no successful two-point conversation, and no missed PAT. We may get a little extra value this year because the public is especially anxious to bet on a safety because doing so would have cashed 3 of the last 5 Super Bowls – creating the most positive reinforcement of all – winning money! NFL history tells us laying -800 on No Safety is a positive EV bet, the sharp grinders are doing it, and so am I.