SportingIntellect,
I agree.
There's just nothing I can see to do about it.
If 30 minutes before game time percentages always reacted the same way, then we'd have something to work with. But they don't.
Thankfully enough of the plays remain plays once they become plays.
The best advice I can think of is to wait as long as possible to put in plays that are on the edge of not being plays.