Last years props for anyone interested.. /pregame-forums/f/9/t/1467254.aspx
Will be adding analysis to these.. just trying to get this one out ASAP.
Jamal Adams UNDER 6.5 -160 *WINNER*
- Jamal Adams could arguably be the top prospect in this draft, according to respected former scout and NFL Network analyst Bucky Brooks. Multiple teams need a safety, and Adams is the complete package. He is a hard hitting, run support safety who has 4.33 wheels to go with it. He has versatility, as he can play in the box, or centerfield at free safety. We have multiple chances for Adams to go early in this draft. The 49ers are a possibility. Adams is regarded as a TREMENDOUS leader and tone setter, which is something John Lynch, former NFL Safety, is needing for the 49ers. The 49ers have one of the leagues worst secondary's, as do the Chicago Bears, who have also popularly been mocked to Jamal Adams. The Jags likely will not bite at Adams if he falls past Chicago, but the Titans are another team needing secondary help who could easily take a shot at arguably the drafts best player at pick 5. Pick 6 is where the value of this bet comes into play. Longtime Jets beat writer Rich Cimini has said he can't envision the Jets not taking Adams at 6, if he falls there. The Jets desperately need safety help, after safety Marcus Gilchrist tore his patellar tendon, and their other safety Calvin Pryor has proven to be a bust. But most telling, is Adams meeting with the Jets. Adams told the media after his meeting with the Jets that the meeting was short, because the Jets told him "you are wasting your time. Why are you even here?" . This was said because even the Jets realize there is a slim shot Adams falls to them, and this is the highest compliment you can give a player. If Adams does fall to 6, I view it as a very slim chance the Jets do not take him, giving us value on this UNDER
Deshone Kizer OVER 31.5 -160 *WINNER*
- Kizers draft stock has taken a plunge in recent months. First off, Kizer will very likely need to be the fourth QB taken to make it into the first round. There has been 4 quarterbacks taken in the first round only 2 of the last 12 years, and this is viewed as a weak quarterback class. Rotoworld, one of the best sources of info and analysis for football, had this to say about Kizer. "Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly said QB DeShone Kizer is not yet a finished product and could have used more time in college. Kelly received some criticism over the winter when he said Kizer should have stayed in school, but he was simply saying what he thought, and most NFL personnel seem to agree with the coach's assessment. In a poll of NFL scouts over the weekend, 9-of-16 voted Kizer the likeliest quarterback to bust from this class. Kizer has already laughably compared himself to Tom Brady and Cam Newton in the same breath. Kizer won't hear his name called Thursday night." Kizer is a 21 year old, extremely raw and allegedly very immature quarterback.""He’s not as good as he should be because he’s not committed to the game," one AFC executive said of Kizer. "He’s committed to building a brand. He wants all the things that come with being a starting quarterback but doesn’t want to put in the work." Added one NFC personnel man, "(Selfishness and money are) what drives him. It's all about him. Prima donna. Thin-skinned." In this day and age, you need to play your first round quarterback, and the general consensus is that Kizer is not close to ready to play in the NFL, and is a multi year project. There is no way the Texans take him IMO, because they are desperate for a quarterback to play right now, not in 2-3 years.
Haason Reddick UNDER 17.5 -180 *WINNER*
- Reddick is this drafts highest rising prospect. Reddick blew up the senior bowl, blew up the combine, and possesses elite versatility that so many teams in the NFL value. Respected former scout Daniel Jeremiah has said the buzz has led him to believe Riddick can be a top ten pick. Most respected pundits agree, with some having him going as high as 6 to the Jets. I believe Riddick could go to Cincinnati, Buffalo (McDermott LOVES athletic linebackers, it's a need, and bills beat writers have mocked him there), New Orleans (need for a LB) , Indianapolis (desperate need for an ILB), Baltimore (need for an ILB), and Washington (need for an ILB). Reddick has scheme versatility which is a huge bonus, and will benefit from ruben fosters off the field issues, as well as Conley's, who is another defender who could have went ahead of him.
Ohio State players picked in first round UNDER 3 -350 *PUSH*
- This bet has a TON of juice, but there is still TREMENDOUS value on it. Ohio State has two lock first rounders in Marcus Lattimore and Malik Hooker. Gareon Conley WAS a lock first rounder, until rape allegations have led to Profootballtalk and multiple other insiders saying he has now become a fringe third round prospect, because no team is going to take a risk on him in the first round. Monday will be Conleys first meeting with the police, which obviously hurts any chance he had to clear his name before Thursday. Ohio State have 3-4 second and third round prospects, none who are projected first rounders in almost every single respected NFL draft experts projections. A catastrophic, unlikely scenario is that this pushes with a surprise first rounder coming from OSU other then Lattimore or Hooker. It would be a SHOCKER to see the number at 4.
Kevin King picked 1st -120 VS Juju Smith Schuster *WINNER*
- Juju is a big name, so anyone with access to this prop, take advantage of it. Juju profiles as a possession wideout who is "expected" to be picked before the end of day 2. Late second to early third is a reasonable expectation for Juju (unless the Rams inept franchise takes him at pick 36, which would still surprise me). Kevin King was a tall, lanky corner who fits the needs of multiple teams picking early, such as the Packers, Seahawks, Bears, Rams, Jets, Panthers, Eagles. The expectation is that King will be off the board quick tonight, possibly as early as 33 or 34. The consensus draft projection of these two players is so far off that -120 is GREAT value for King, and a very likely winner.