Lloyd Christmas said:
As usual, people make a judgement on whether something is good or not based on the outcome, not whether or not it was a good investment.
This doesn't have anything to do with taking sides. RJ can probably confirm he and Fezzik are the last two people I'd "stick up for". Correct information being shared is the most important thing.
Agree completely. I view myself as a "neutral" contributor to Pregame, hopefully always adding value for the reader. I will attempt to always make the case for good analysis.
Let's review the statistics around the frequency of OT: from the inception of regular season OT in 1974 to 2003, around 4.5% of regular season games went to OT, more recently from 2007 to 2011, 5.86% went to OT (1280 games), and from 2012 to 2016, 6.48% went to OT (the last 1280 games). Years 2010, 2012 and 2015 had large # of OTs. However using just the last five years, OT was a 1 in 15.4 shot. A capper might even make the case that a game lined -3 and 59 deserved a higher frequency, say even 8%.or 1 in 12.5 (for the last 10 years, only 2 out of 32 playoff games lined between -2.5 and -3.5 have gone to OT).
So we are left with a prop bet that has statistically been +EV over the years. If you believe in black magic or the "due theory" and not probability theory, you should shun this bet. Also, if you arbitrarily like to ignore +EV bets because they involve big favorites, go right ahead. I will say that using even fractional Kelly criterion to size these bets is risky and limiting the amount bet at 2 to 3% of your bankroll is probably wise.
Eliminating bets that are +EV and long-term winners isn't generally wise. I know "long-term" is ill-defined, but if you make enough of these type bets like I have, you will win.