It was a rough season full of ups and downs.. but it was once again a 100% fully documented winning season. Was not near the season I wanted to have, especially because I hit at a great rate on my 3* plays but was awful on all other plays. Not up to my standard since I did hit at 59% for the first two seasons of my capping. Rest assured, I am gonna work my ass off to make sure next season is better then this past one. Anyways, let's finish the year a winner..
2* New England Patriots ML -140 *WINNER*
I really like New England to win this game, and would have fired on it for a 3* if I was not laying so much juice. First off, both teams are obviously fully motivated. But this may be the biggest game of the career of Tom Brady, who often plays his best when he is in "psycho Tom" mode. Brady is obviously super inspired to win his fifth ring, likely validating him as the greatest quarterback of all time, and also giving him the satisfaction of having roger goodell hand him that trophy. It's not a big factor at all, but just something noteworthy.
Tom Brady faced a Dan Quinn led defense in the super bowl two years ago. That defense had far superior talent then this Atlanta team does. All Brady did was throw for almost 400 yards, complete 38 of 50 passes, and throw for 4 touchdowns, including a near perfect fourth quarter. The Falcons defense has overachieved recently due to some excellent coaching and positive game flow. But this week is different. I specifically think the Patriots will be able to expose slot corner Brian Poole against WR Julian Edelman and the rest of the patriots quick footed wideouts. The Falcons allowed a league high amount of catches to opposing running backs this season, and that is why I also expect to see RB Dion Lewis being able to expose the Falcons pass coverage. No team likes to throw to their backs and slot wideouts more then the Patriots, and no team is more game plan specific then the Patriots. The Falcons have plenty of defensive weaknesses that I expect the patriots to expose in this game.
The Falcons offense has been amazing this season, possibly the best offense since the 2007 18-1 Patriots. A ton of the credit goes to offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan, who has developed game plan specific formations and forms of attack for this Falcons offense. The Falcons offense is not talented enough to be considered the best offense of the last decade. It is a combo of great coaching and talent that has made it happen. But the Patriots are one team that has a coaching edge against the Falcons, something that they didn't run into often. Giving Belichick two weeks to prepare for Atlanta is an advantage for the patriots, no doubt about it. He will likely have his team prepared for everything Atlanta throws at them, which will force them to beat New England with talent, not schematically. Atlanta can do that in this game, and will score points, but I have more faith in the New England defense to get a stop then I do the Falcons defense to stop Brady. This patriots defense quietly has one of the leagues best secondaries, with two very good corners in Logan Ryan and Malcolm butler, as well as a very good safety in Devin McCourty. The patriots have allowed one rushing touchdown since week 8, and the team led the NFL in defensive PPG allowed. That is a flawed stat because of the schedule they played, but impressive none the less.
In this game, it's simple. We get the better quarterback, coaching, and defense. Enjoy the game everyone and looking forward to next season!
Prop Reccomendation: Julian Edelman OVER 7.5 Catches -120 *LOSER*
Edelman has caught 8 passes or more in 6 out of 9 games since Gronk permanently left the lineup. The Seahawks, Falcons, and Jags have all recently ran a similar type of defense to what the Falcons currently do. Edelman went against Dan Quinn's defense in the super bowl two years ago and he lit up the Seahawks for 9 catches. This year, with Gronk in the lineup, Edelman had 7 catches against Seattle and the other time Brady went against the Seattle defense, slot wideout Wes Welker had 10 catches. Edelman also went up against Jacksonville last season and finished with 8 catches in a blowout win. Brady loves to throw to wideouts he can trust to get open against zone coverage, and Edelman is that.
Prop Recommendation: Will Tom Brady being drafted in the 6th round be mentioned... YES -260 *WINNER*
Will "Matty Ice" be said during the broadcast .. NO +110 *WINNER*
I am personally betting about three times more on the Brady prop then I am the Ryan prop.. this interview should tell you all you need to know.
https://soundcloud.com/howardstern/sternshowclip_propbets