TLF18 said:
Would you play them at -3 or -3.5?
Obviously I know 2.5 is better... but I don't have an out that will offer me that.
Would you recommend I play the ML or just roll will -3 or -3.5 in hopes that all of you are right and Pitt rolls strong today?
I
I looked at the line history and I don't think anyone was 2.5 when you posted this, so -3 would have been fine.
I have not seen any new data since the EP rules were changed, but historically, -2.5 to -3.5 favs won by 3 around 10% of the time. So even if you believe the game is not a coin flip, and you think out of 100 trials, they cover the 3 50 times, lose 40 times and push 10 times, you go from a 55.5% win percentage to 50% by laying -3.5 as opposed to -3
Unfortunately, most bettors don't understand how much of a difference that makes