GoBirds96 said:
Birds, I followed your stats on this 13 pt teaser and it hit! Excluded the bills but bills would have won also. Are you going to share some top plays again this week??
Yup, see below. Not as many strong plays as last week. Will tread lightly.
I order top plays by the average of the two conditions. Second # is the average.
- I only look at plays over 87% and try to only play 90+.
- I also remove all plays where a particular side is less than 80% regardless of the average. For example 'Hawks getting 13 hits 96.875% of the time. But the Pats have beaten the spread by 13 on 22% of the time.
Ravens + 13
Ravens cover 93% when given 13 and Browns cover by 13 on 3.4%.
And so on and so on.
Ravens +13 94.9%
Broncos +13 91.6%
Ravens, Browns Over 91.6%
Packers +13 90.1%
Giants +13 89.8%
Chargers +13 89.7%
Jets +13 89.6%
Texans +13 89.6%
Eagles, Falcons Over 89.5%
Buccaneers +13 89.3%
Patriots +13 89.2%
Cardinals +13 88.4%
Ravens, Browns Under 88.2%
Bears +13 87.5%
Panthers, Chiefs Over 87.1%
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I didn't check all of these exactly, but off the top of my head the only losers were Packers + 13, Patriots +13 (tough beat there if you played it!), and Bears + 13.
So much for my 90% threshold haha!
Also, might need to change my rule of removing strong plays if the opponent has a high level of variance. That scared me off the Seahawks' sterling 97% hit rate last week. It also comes into play again this week as the Eagles are a high variance team beating the number by 13 a whopping 25% of the time.