You might have to recover this thread to get it, however. We dropped the Bengals and of course our first NFL 3* loss on the Jets - it was bound to happen - we may get some back with other bets.
253 CLE 10.0 (-120) Pinnacle vs 254 WAS |
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Analysis: Sorry, guys - Washington just shouldn't be a double-digit favorite to anyone. Cleveland had over 400 yards of total offense against Miami - they just couldn't finish or make FG's. Cleveland lost to what we now know is a very good Eagles team, at Philadelphia, 29-10. They COULD have beaten Baltimore and blew a huge lead - they SHOULD have beaten Miami. Yes, they suck - but are the really 10 points worse than Washington? The 'Skins were killed by Pittsburgh, lost at home to Dallas - and beat a sh*tty Giants team. They've given up 27 or more points in all three games. Hence, I also like this OVER quite a bit and will wait that one out - I haven't checked weather (too early).
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Jags/Colts: Here's reason #1 I like Jacksonville. The Colts play in a dome and on turf and their offense is all timing/speed (Hilton) and I just don't think it's quite the same on grass, let alone a field that's not usually in the greatest of shape and certainly not up to NFL standards. The line is about a PK at this point, so they're saying the Colts are only three points better on a neutral field - I have to think if this game were in Indianapolis that the Colts would be favored by more than -1, perhaps higher than -3. Jacksonville couldn't quite get it done, but they held Baltimore to three rushing first downs and 23% third down conversion rate, normally good enough to win. The Jags had only ONE first down rushing, but this is the Colts defense - so I do like J'ville here.
Cleveland/Washington: The Redskins have a tendency to play poorly in the games they should win. Now we'll give Kessler an game under his belt, and on the road - so this could be a spot for the Browns here. There is no way, even with the Redskins good win in New York, that they need to be -8 to anyone. Cleveland had over 400 yards of total offense in Miami, but had to settle for FG's more often than not, in fact, they attempted SIX of them and only made three. They could easily have won that game SU in regulation. The Skins allowed 450 yards on the road and still won, thanks in large part to TURNOVERS and 11 NYG penalties for 128 yards. So, Washington's defense isn't good enough to lay a touchdown.
Buffalo/New England: It's true that there's no coach Ryan would rather beat than Bill, but there's probably no coach Bill would rather beat than Ryan, whose job is already in some jeopardy - Bill would like nothing better than to be 4-0 and expedite Ryans' departure. Given that the Patriots have had ten days to prepare - New England or nothing and it doesn't matter who play QB. So Buffalo beat Arizona - New England HAMMERED Arizona so that may well be a product of Arizona being less than we expected rather than Buffalo being good. The Cards threw FOUR interceptions and lost a fumble - so TURNOVERS again. New England won't do that.
Seattle/Jets: I can't take Seattle on the East Coast in an early game in an environment that may be one of the loudest in the NFL these days, outside of Seattle. I do like what Bowles is doing with New York - but those turnovers against the Chiefs are something that's got to change for me to back them again.
Carolina/Atlanta: I do think the Panthers peaked last season and that appears to be coming to fruition, and aside from the W/L record the last decade, the Falcons do have the talent. Their defense will eventually start playing better given that Dan Quinn will start making his mark - so even on short rest I cannot fade the Falcons here. As I said earlier, the Panthers may have peaked and honestly the entire makeup of the team depends on Newtons' attitude, and if he's the whiny Cam much more then they're going nowhere. Some books at least in Vegas have the Panthers -3.5, and barring a meltdown or something Monday night, I'll take the home dog.
Detroit/Chicago: The Lions don't typically win games they're supposed to and the Bears don't typically win games THEY'RE supposed to. The instinct is to fade the Lions, but I'm not so sure they aren't a bit more desperate already. It's interesting that the Lions opened -2 AT Chicago (in Vegas) before the Bears play Sunday night - and the Bear on Sunday are getting some late love. The Lions loss at the Packers was worse than the score indicated, so again, I might have to lean Bears here, and perhaps the over.
Tennessee/Houston: Although I do think Houston is on the right track, several things that happened in the New England game (misuse of timeouts/Lechler having to tell O'Brien to challenge) just have me concerned that backing them might not be the thing to do. Clearly people will be on them with the rest and attributing the NE loss to the "Patriots" but I have to wonder if that's really the case. Tennessee hung tough with the Raiders and only allowed 17 points - Houston with what I might consider TOO MUCH time to ponder just how good they are, or aren't. They opened this game -6.5 which is not unexpected because they'll rarely go over the "7" mark, knowing it'll get bought pretty quickly. I have no immediate lean here, but a close game would not surprise me - a mobile QB such as Mariotta is someone that may give Houston's defense more trouble than, say, Brady would have.
Oakland/Baltimore: Tough travel spot for Oakland having played in Tennessee last week and back to the East Coast (even if they STAY on the East Coast they're out of their routine) - both teams here get road wins, and it's tough to win two straight on the road. They put the number at Ravens -4 and I would very much expect that to come down, so it's Oakland now or wait and see. Baltimore has won, indeed, but they haven't been killing anyone.
Denver/Tampa Bay: This is where the Bucs might find out how far they've come, or not. Even this time of year, the weather plays a factor. We know what Denver's thin air has to offer, but we also know that Tampa Bay will be very hot and humid, and this is Denver's second straight trip East. Denver unexpectedly (to me) went into Cincinnati and beat the Bengals fairly handily. Siemian was VERY good, but the Broncos couldn't run the ball - only 52 yards. So, once again it was for the most part on Denver's defense, simply choking the Bengals offense. I am still waiting for the Siemian regression - the fact that Denver ONLY opened -3 and is already -3 (+100) at Pinnacle is somewhat telling. Either people are higher on the Bucs than I am, or they're ALSO waiting for the regression. Quite likely a game I will stay away from.
Dallas/San Francisco: The 49ers were back to being the 49ers against Seattle, which could make it tough to back them, but by the same token those are the bets that often win. We don't know about Dallas on the road, as typically they've been better on the road - the 49ers were beaten much worse than the final score indicated at Seattle, and Seattle held the ball for 35 minutes. On the upside for the 49ers is that they held Seattle to 3-6 in the Red Zone, which IS telling at some point. They did give up 418 yards, and the key here is that if you go by the "buy low and sell high" theory, the 49ers stock is about as low as it can be right now.
New Orleans/San Diego: The Chargers have now blown two fourth quarter leads this season and that's got to get in your head. The Saints obviously play on Monday - and the Saints are a team I love to fade outdoors on grass - so taking either team might be a stretch. Saints on short rest - but it's early enough in the season to where that could matter less. San Diego simply could not run the ball on the Colts, which is scary, and they held the Colts to only 2-11 on third down conversions. Until it mattered.
Los Angeles/Arizona: The Rams played well at Tampa and Arizona got crushed in Buffalo. I have to wonder if the line will be a bit high based on the "pissed off" factor. It opened at Cardinals 9.5, give or take - and the very late travel back and LONG game in Tampa may well take it's toll on the Rams - this is also probably a game I don't want much of at this point.