Here we go!! Attached are my updated power ratings on every team, last week and THIS week, along with their HFA (a blank HFA indicates use 2.5). During the last 2 years the average NFL home field advantage has been 2.5, not 3, and I will use this for most teams.
To calculate a spread, take the difference between the teams, and adjust for HFA. Note, if your calculated point spread is above 7, it typically requires a small adjustment downward, to reflect the 4th quarter of most of these games being more of a pk'm type situation.
|
6-Sep |
13-Sep |
HFA |
|
|
|
|
Arizona |
5 |
4.5 |
3.5 |
Atlanta |
-1.5 |
-1.5 |
|
Baltimore |
1 |
0.5 |
|
Buffalo |
0 |
-1 |
|
Carolina |
6 |
5.5 |
|
Chicago |
-2.5 |
-2.5 |
2 |
Cincy |
3.5 |
3.5 |
3 |
Cleveland |
-7.5 |
-9.5 |
|
Dallas |
-1.5 |
-2 |
1.5 |
Denver |
0.5 |
1.5 |
|
Detroit |
-2 |
-1 |
|
Green Bay |
5.5 |
5 |
4 |
Houston |
1 |
2 |
|
Indy |
-0.5 |
-1.5 |
|
Jax |
-2 |
-1.5 |
1.5 |
KC |
3 |
2.5 |
3 |
LA |
-2.5 |
-5.5 |
|
Mia |
-1.5 |
0 |
1.5 |
Minny |
0 |
0 |
3.5 |
NEW Eng |
1.5 |
3 |
4 |
New Orl |
-3 |
-3 |
|
NYG |
-1 |
0.5 |
2 |
NYJ |
0 |
-1 |
2 |
Oakland |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
Philly |
-5 |
-3.5 |
2 |
Pit |
5 |
6 |
|
SD |
-1.5 |
-2.5 |
1.5 |
SF |
-7 |
-4.5 |
2 |
Sea |
5.5 |
3.5 |
4 |
Tampa |
0 |
1 |
2 |
Ten |
-3 |
-4 |
2 |
Wash |
-0.5 |
-1.5 |
|
I have the Steelers the top team right now +6, sans Bell. Do you guys agree? Who would YOU make No1?
On the capping front, my NFL early week releases are UP, 3 totals! I am working on MLB Wed, and CFB as I type this! Stay tuned.......
http://bit.ly/1dO56ZY