I liked these games enough to play them a while in advance. Once again, let's have a successful NFL season, and BOL to anyone following on my plays this season!
Reminder, this season I will be doing 1-2-3, not 1-3-3-4-5 like I did the previous two seasons on pregame.
Entering week 1 of this season, my plays on the PREGAME forums are 157-108, Plus 66.05 Units. That unit count includes futures plays, but the record does not account for futures. These are real numbers, documented on the site over the past two years. The record and unit count will once again be recorded and updated every single week this season, as it has been in the past. Anyone who decides to follow on any play this year, I appreciate it and wish you the best of luck all season, no matter who your game is on. Love this forum and the people on it, let's have a great season
3* Minnesota Vikings -2.5 -135 *WINNER*
Will not be laying -135 on big plays often at all. Don't believe in doing it often. I really, really like this play and have had a ton of success on the Vikings in two years on PG, going 7-2 ATS on there games in 2014, and 9-2 in 2015, all documented On the site. First of all, I believe there is line value on Minnesota. I have this game power ranked at Minnesota -4.5, which is what the Packers are laying against Jacksonville in Jacksonville. The Vikings on my rankings are closer to the Packers then the Titans are to the Jags, so in my opinion the Vikings are getting a soft line by only laying 3 on the road to the Titans. The Vikings have been road warriors under Mike Zimmer, because as many experts say, you always have to bring a running game and a defense with you for road games. Last season, the Vikings went 7-1 ATS on the road, with the only loss being a very fluky and weird game, the Vikings first game of the season at another bad team, the 49ers. The Vikings overlooked San Francisco to start the season and got punched in the mouth for it, and don't think for one second that Mike Zimmer will be preaching that to his ball club, which should help avoid the vikings making the same mistake two years in a row. Minnesota has covered 7 straight road games since that game, and went 5-0 SU and ATS in road games where the spread was within 3 points last season after the 49ers game. The Titans have had an awful home field advantage recently, going 2-14 SU at home the last two seasons. I can't see a phase of the game where the Titans matchup well and present problems for Minnesota. The Titans want to run an "exotic smash mouth" offense under new head coach Mike Mularkey, which was a hire I did not like and I believe the Vikings will have a substantial coaching advantage in this game. The Vikings are a smash mouth team, so I don't think the Titans can play that style and beat the Vikings at what they do best. Marcus Mariota struggled a ton against pressure last season.. And the Vikings have a ton of solid pass rushers, and go 5-6 deep at rushing the passer. The Titans also are lacking for many weapons to attack this Minnesota defense. In the end I can see Minnesota winning this game by double digits and think we got a winner this game, and not much can change my opinion from now until Week 1.
1* San Diego Chargers +7.5 -120 *WINNER*
Justin Houston's injury will be felt in this matchup, but even if he does play, which I don't think will happen, I like the Chargers in this matchup. In week 1, over the past 5 seasons I believe something around 65-70% of divisional games have fell within 7 points. Phillip Rivers finally has a supporting cast this season, with the return of Keenan Allen, addition of TrAvis Benjamin, and the return of a few offensive line starters from injury. Alex Smith has never been a QB I like to lay over a touchdown with, especially in a week 1 divisional game against a clearly better QB who's roster has much improved from last season. The Chiefs may be playing without Houston but also a very new secondary, that lost CB Sean Smith in the offseason. Quite frankly I wouldn't be shocked to see Rivers and his chargers win this game, but I will take the 7.5 points in a game that I think should be lined closer to 6 then the 7.5 -120 available at the moment. The Chargers struggled to stop the run last season, but in the passing game, they have a potential star corner Verrett covering Maclin, and the Chiefs other wideouts really can't expose the San Diego corners. The Chargers have mulitple pass catching weapons that can go after the corners opposite Marcus Peters, however.
1* Browns/Eagles UNDER 45 -120 *WINNER*
I really like the Eagles front seven this season, and HATE the Browns defense. But, both of these teams are teams that are slow paced, and the line is not accounting for that enough. So last year, the Chiefs, who had Doug pederson as their OC, had a 46% run ratio, which is 6th in the NFL. The Chiefs only had 51 plays that were designated as deep down the field in the passing game which is bottom 3 in the NFL. They ran an average of 59.69 plays a game on offense which is 2nd to last in the NFL and also ran a play every 29.94 seconds which is 2nd to last in the NFL. Now the bengals last year coordinated by Hue Jackson ran the ball 48.05% of the time which is 5th in the NFL. They also averaged 62.75 plays per game which is 25th in the NFL. So from these statistics, you can see that as the OC, they liked to pound the ball and control the clock. Now as head coaches, both coaches get downgrades in offensive talent (bengals to Browns is obvious). Both coaches even downgraded in QB play going from dalton to RG3 and Alex smith to Bradford and both teams having strong offensive lines and limited outside playmakers, this sets up to be a pound the ball type of game between two poor teams. And as I said earlier, the Eagles have a strong front 7 which should limit the Browns running game and the lack of experience/chemistry between RGIII and his WRs should play a role in this as well
1* Panthers/Broncos UNDER 43 -110 *WINNER*
In this Super Bowl rematch, I am expecting the Panthers to be conservative on offense. In the super bowl, the Panthers KILLED themselves with turnovers, which was the difference between winning and losing. The Panthers know they have a stout defense that won't let Denver go up and down the field on them.. The Panthers also know that the Broncos secondary and pass rush is a mismatch for their offensive line and wideouts. The Panthers will do everything in their power to have max protection and short passes/ running the ball to limit the effect von Miller has on this game. The Broncos are a run first team as well, who added two new offensive tackles in free agency, drafted a full back, and re signed CJ Anderson, making it clear that they intend to be a run first team this season. Last years super bowl total finished at 34 and that was with special teams and turnovers leading to roughly half the points scored in the game, and I am anticipating that leading to a more conservative gameplan then usual from both teams. I'm not a big trend guy but Broncos games in Denver last season went under 43 points 8 out of 10 times, and Panthers games in season openers over the last four seasons have finished at totals of 26,29,34, and 19. Everything points to the under in this game for me. Also, remember that defenses usually are ahead of the offenses at this time of the year, especially a team like Denver who will be playing with a new quarterback. The recipe is there for both teams to have a conservative offensive gameplan and let their stout defenses go to work.
1* Washington Redskins +3.5 -125 *LOSER*
For this game, we have a case of the Steelers being valued at their teams ceiling, instead of the current state of their team. Pittsburgh's is being valued as if they are last years fully intact explosive offense, and early in the season, that may not be the case. First off, the team must adjust to suffering a huge downgrade at WR, losing Martavis Bryant for the entire season. In Big Ben's last 22 games with Martavis Bryant in the lineup, he has averaged 331 yards per game, and has thrown 43 touchdowns. In his last 22 games without Martavis in the lineup, Ben has thrown for 62 less yards per game, and has 8 less touchdowns. The bigger concern for Big Ben is that he has been a different quarterback on the road. In his last 42 home games, Ben has a TD/INT ratio of 2.2 to 0.6, which is outstanding. In his last 42 road games, Ben's TD/INT ratio becomes a very average 1.3 to 0.9. LeVeon Bell is suspended, Deangelo Williams is a very capable backup but he is not Leveon Bell, a game breaking pass catcher and well as runner. Big Ben will be throwing the ball to Antonio Brown, who is the best WR in the NFL, but the rest of his pass catchers (Wheaton, Coates, Rogers, James) have been underwhelming in their short careers and are unproven. The Redskins have a very solid boundary cornerback duo in Josh Norman and Bresaud Breeland, who won't shutdown Antonio Brown, but should be able to not let him break the game open and should do a solid job in the other unproven wideouts. Kirk Cousins was fabulous at home last season, posting a 15-0 TD/INT ratio in his last 7 regular season games. The weakness of the Steelers defense is their secondary, and the Redskins are loaded with pass catchers. Jordan Reed is a matchup nightmare for this secondary, and Desean Jackson, Pierre Garçon, and Jamison crowder give the Redskins plus match ups against the weak Pittsburgh corners. The steelers best defensive player Cameron Heyward is likely questionable for this game, which would be a big blow for the Steelers if he is unable to play. Their is some line value on Pittsburgh laying this many points on the road to start the season, and we fire on Washinngton in the Monday night football season opener!
1* Rams/49ers UNDER 44 -110 *WINNER*
Lots of 44.5 left but I personally have 44. I'm kicking myself for not betting this game earlier in the summer and getting a better line. But in my opinion, this is a really solid total and still has value at this number. Both of these teams were bottom 4 in scoring offense last season and have made no notable offensive personnel additions. Last years matchup between these two teams resulted in point totals of 33 and 35. Now, the big factor that has this total projected to be higher is Chip Kelly. Kelly's offenses play extremely fast, but we have seen in Philly, that when he does not have elite personnel, his offense can struggle at times, especially against solid defenses. I have specifically seen Kelly's offenses struggle when his team can not control the LOS, which should be the case against the Rams. The Rams boast one of the top defensive lines in the NFL, and the 49ers offensive line is very weak aside from left tackle Joe Staley. These two teams arguably have the two worst pass catching corps in the NFL. The 49ers have lost Bruce Ellington and CFL star Eric Rogers in camp to injuries, and trot out the worst pass catching core in the NFL, in Torrey Smith, Quinton Patton, Jeremy Kerley, and Vance McDonald. Blaine Gabbert has been a check down quarterback who struggled mightily against pressure his entire career, which I anticipate being the case in this game. The Rams starting QB Case Keenum is another ability limited game managing quarterback, with a limited amount of weapons to work with. Tavon Austin is a Nice gadget player, but the Rams arguably have the second worst pass catching corps in the league around Keenum. The Rams have a bad offensive line as well, and will lean heavily on superstar running back Todd Gurley. Lots of running is good for the under, and Both teams are run first teams, and have a history of low scoring games with each other. The chip Kelly factor has inflated this total, and we fire on the under!
1* Detroit Lions +3.5 -110 *WINNER*
When fully healthy, The Colts have built a questionable supporting cast around Andrew Luck. When injured, it becomes downright dreadful. Three very impactful Colts are likely going to be missing this game. LG Jake Mewhort is one of the Colts few good offensive lineman, and he is likely out for this game. DE Henry Anderson is the Colts best player in their front 7, and he is out. Vontae Davia is the colts best defensive player, and he is out. Also questionable for the Colts is CB Darius Butler, Free safety Kendall Geathers, LB Sio Moore and DE Kendall Langford. The colts are going to score points but they have a very limited amount of defensive players to stop the Lions. The Lions have a star pass rusher Ezekiel Ansah, solid interior lineman in Haloti Ngata, pro bowl linebacker in DeAndre Levy, very good corner in Darius Slay, and pro bowl safety in Glover Quin, all of whom would be the best player on the colts currently injured defense. The Lions have the weapons to attack this Colts defense. Marvin Jones, Golden Tate, Anquan Boldin, Eric Ebron, and Theo Riddick all have plus matchups in the passing game against this Colts defense. Matthew Stafford was one of the hottest quarterbacks in the league when OC Jim Bob Cooter took over, and that was reflected in the Lions 6-2 record to finish the season (Should have been 7-1 if not for the Rodgers Hail Mary). 65 percent of Frank Gore's running yardage came in between the tackles last season, which was the sixth highest percentage in the league. The Lions allowed only 3.1 YPC in the interior of their defense, which was the second best rate in the league. It's a toss up to me who will win this game so I will gladly take the 3.5 points.