grabbed this from another forum.. this is so true in todays age of sports betting:
"I know many people who will just bet against the public or bet against
public teams and it continues to baffle me as to why. Yes, 5 years ago
and further back than that I am sure there was money to be made this
way, but that isn't the case anymore. Since the Internet was founded
this angle has become weaker and weaker. Bettors have become more
internet savvy and are able to line shop where as just a few years ago
many players had just 1 out and maybe the Local Newspaper to compare
lines. Don Best has become the single most dominating factor in
Sportsbooks' lines, you may have 22 outs and there is a possibility of
at least 15 of them using the exact same line, rarely will you see a
book move off action anymore, they just follow the big boys on screen
no matter what the players are betting. To illustrate my point, I was
in the offices of a rather large Sportsbook on an NFL Sunday and they
were 52 Dimes over on the Favorite -6, Grande, Cris and Pinnacle all
moved from -6 to -5, this BM moved his game from -6(where he was
already $52,000 over) to -5???????? I was in shock to say the least,
but this happens in 90% of the offices offshore. Public money does not
drive the line anymore, Don Best Screen drives the line now, so what
does this mean to us as bettors???? The people who make the line(LVSC
or Keith Glantz) are now concerned with beating the wiseguys when they
send the openers to their clients, not looking for 2 way action
anymore! If they admit it or not, openers are now designed to beat
Billy Walters, Billy Baxter, Pokers players, etc.... they are not
concerned with beating Joe Public, Joe Public cant hurt their clients
bottom line like Billy Walters can. In the past for example if the true
line on Dallas Cowboys was -6, LVSC would send out 7 to thier clients
knowing they would get buried with favorite money on the public team
like the Cowboys, Today, with Don Best and other internet sources for
lines and the abundance of wiseguys, if the true line is Dallas -6, LVSC
will send -6, more concerned with Billy Walters looking to take the
dog +7, then being worried about the Public laying the -6 on the
favorite, getting those extra 1, 1.5, 2pts against Public teams doesn't
happen anymore, you are now losing the value you had in the past
betting against the public.
Some other will argue that the public still loses. Yes, it is true the
Public still loses but not because they hit 35-45%, the public loses
because of poor money management and they lose by making sucker bets
like parlays and teasers without an edge, by simply fading the public
you are not going to guarantee yourself a profit, but sure enough there
are many people out there that simply fade the public year after year
and expect to make money!"