2015 NFL Record
16 – 5 @ 76% for +10.5 Units
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#1: Premium Play $5 - Click Here
#2: Houston Texans +5.5
#3: New York Giants +5
#4: Washington Redskins +3
#5: Cleveland Browns +7
#6: New Orleans Saints -3 -120
#7: Teaser – 6.5 points:
Green Bay Packers -0.5 / Denver Broncos -0.5
Week 4 NFL Breakdowns and Leans:
NYJ vs MIA +1
Early game in London on Sunday morning. There’s two ways to look at this one: Dolphins are a ‘desperate’ team which is in a type of a ‘must win’ game scenario OR the situation in Miami is so toxic that players could be on the verge of quitting on their coach while the pressure to ‘right the ship’ could lead to another poor performance. There are reports out there that Dolphins’ coaching staff will see changes if they lose on Sunday. In addition reports indicate that ‘players are frustrated with play calling on both sides of the ball and don’t like the length and difficulty of practices.’ Here’s what one player had to say: “If we get beat in Europe, (players) are going to throw in the towel. It isn’t the players. We have all the talent in the world”. Wow, now that’s a quote you don’t see very often. Basically the mindset of the players is that the coaching staff is to blame for this poor start and I’m wondering how motivated these guys are to go out there and bash their heads in for the coaches that they flat out dislike.
Outside of ‘motivational angles’, it’s pretty clear which is a better team. The Jets are a superior squad and it’s mostly due to their 2nd ranked D. This is a team that ranks 1st against the run and has three (yes, 3 NOT 2) excellent CB’s in Revis, Cromartie, and Skrine. If the Jets take away the run, and it’s not difficult to image they could as Miami has been atrocious running the ball, then the Dolphins will have a very tough time moving the chains in this one. Their best O-lineman Branden Albert is out once again which will only make things more difficult. Defensively, Miami has been a major disappointment. They rank 27th overall and 30th against the pass, while being tied with SD with only 1 sack on the year. Will this D turn it around all of a sudden? Possibly. But like I’ve mentioned above, how motivated are the players to do so? The Jets will have a healthier Ivory back to pound the ball on the ground (he was active last week but didn’t play) and potentially Decker as well after he logged a limited practice on Friday. You know Brandon Marshall will be motivated to go up against his former team. With Jets coming off a flat performance against the Eagles, I expect a bounce-back in their effort in this game. In my opinion the matchup, situational spot, and potentially even the motivational angle are all in the Jets’ favor here.
Lean: NYJ -1
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JAX @ IND -9
On first glance it seems that Colts are over-valued in this matchup, which they probably are given how poorly they’ve played so far. But then you see how they’ve dominated the Jags over the years: +34, +20, +27, and +20 MOV in the last 4 games. And it doesn’t seem like this Jags team is much better than in years past. Indy is getting Trent Cole and Darius Butler back, which is big for their D. In addition, Mathis is expected to play even more snaps than he did last week. Dwayne Allen practiced on a limited basis so his chances of suiting up are pretty good as well. Of course none of this will matter if Luck sits. There are reports out there that indicate that Luck is “more injured than he and the Colts are letting on.” Supposedly Luck took almost no reps in practice and ended up missing the Friday session altogether. Colts then proceeded to sign Josh Johnson to an active roster as a QB3. I can’t predict the future but all of this seems to be leading to old-man Hasselbeck suiting up on Sunday. If your book still has +9 available, I’d be tempted to lock in Jags at that number. Even if Luck plays, there’s value on Jacksonville there (about a FG).
Lean: JAX +9 (though most books have pulled it while we all await Luck’s status)
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HOU @ ATL -5.5
Here were the closing spreads on the Falcons in their first 3 games: +3 (vs PHI), +2 (@ NYG), +1 (@ DAL). Clearly this trend isn’t holding as the game is not at Pick ‘em (3,2,1,PK), but all kidding aside, this is the first time in 4 games that the Falcons are a favorite. And not just any kind of a ‘favorite’, but a fairly substantial one. The line opened at -4, jumped up to -6.5, and now is dropping a bit again. In this type of a scenario I typically try to make the argument to fade a “hot” team, as there’s potential ‘value’ to bet against them. First, the pre-season line on this game had ATL -1. Now all of a sudden the number is 4.5/5 points higher. Keep in mind that Atlanta trailed at some point in the 4th quarter in all of their games so far this year. That means that this team isn’t likely to blow anyone out, which plays right into Texans’ hands. Houston has one of the worst QB’s in Mallet, so a close game is what they need to be competitive. Running the ball shouldn’t be difficult as ATL ranks 25th in run-D, and if Arian Foster were to come back (feels like he might) then chances of a Houston upset increase even more so. At the very least Houston is getting Duane Brown, their pro-bowl tackle, back for this one. I think overall this will be a tough game for the Falcons. We saw them going up against a depleted Dallas D last week but Houston will present much more of a challenge. Watt and Clowney will pressure Ryan, who has been making a number of terrible throws from my perspective. I know Ryan ranks 6th overall in QBR and has been ‘great’ overall, but if you watch the games closely, he’s making at least 1 or 2 ‘WTF’ types of throws each game. These are throws that have bounced off defenders’ hands and should have been picked off for big plays, but luckily for him weren’t. If Watt and Clowney can pressure him, I believe Ryan will get frazzled and make a few critical mistakes. To make matters worse, I don’t see the run-game helping him out much. Freeman ran really hard last week but this is a small RB (200 lbs) who logged 30 carries against Dallas. With Coleman ruled out for the game, Freeman will once again be asked to carry a heavy load and I just don’t see the same efficiency from him this week, especially against a better run-D. All in all, after a huge comeback on the road against Dallas last week, expect some regression in Atlanta’s performance against Houston. I think it’ll be a tough matchup for them.
Lean: HOU +5.5
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CAR @ TB +3
Interesting spread here as I would have expected the number to be higher. With 85% of the tickets on the Panthers, looks like most people expected the same. I know the Panthers have beaten Jags, Houston, and Saints (with McCown as QB) so their 3-0 record isn’t ‘that’ impressive, but they’ll face off against the Bucs and Jameis Winston, one of the worst QB’s in the league. Panthers rank 4th defensively and 5th against the pass, with CB Josh Norman playing out of his mind. If he’s able to lock up Evans, then Tampa will have a tough time moving the ball offensively. Of course the injury to Charles Johnson (out till week 12) and absence of Kuechly once again, will hurt this Panthers D. Carolina did trade for Jared Allen, so I’m sure he’ll be motivated to play were here. The difference between Winston and Newton is probably the biggest factor in this game, and of course that gives the Panthers a huge edge in this game. The bookmakers are clearly confident in the posted number though, as it hasn’t budged yet, so that’s something to consider.
Lean: CAR -3
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NYG @ BUF -5
Both teams are coming off big wins. Giants will have 10-days to prepare/rest though after winning against Washington on TNF, while Buffalo annihilated the Dolphins on the road. The Bills dominated IND and MIA, two teams that are way worse than we all assumed at first, but got way outplayed by the Pats, a team that is better than we all thought. Giants are somewhere in the middle. They probably should be 3-0 if not for some poor decision-making and lack of execution at the end of games. They’re also much closer to the Patriots in pass-offense rankings (Pats #4 / Giants #9), then either IND (#27) or Miami (#26). I think this will be a tougher matchup for the Bills than most think. Both McCoy and Watkins are out, keeping two of Buffalo’s biggest playmakers out of this one. I know that Karlos Williams is a supposed ‘athletic freak’ but why did he last to round 5 in the NFL draft this year? I know he has character issues (investigated by Tllahassee police in domestic battery case – no charges filed), but even without those reports indicated that he gained weight last year in FSU and lost his job to a freshman. His ‘hot’ start to the year could be a ‘small sample size’ aberration so we’ll see how he handles the full-time role this week. Giants rank 6th defensively against the run through 3 weeks so this is not an easy matchup for him. On the other side, the Bills rank 30th against the run. If Giants can utilize their 3 RB committee to grind out yards, then the pass-game should have more success than expected. Bottom line is that the Bills were PK, -1, and PK in their first 3 games of the year. Now all of a sudden they’re a fairly substantial favorite at home. I expect a close game.
Lean: NYG +5
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OAK @ CHI +3
Holy cow, the Raiders are a road favorite?!? What is going on here? Let’s put a few things into perspective. The Bears have faced GB, ARZ, and SEA, the unquestionable 3 top teams in the NFC so far this year. The fact that they’re 0-3 is not surprising. The fact that they’ve been outscored by 59 combined points does indicate that they’re a bad team. I tried to find a way to back them as a home dog in this spot but that’s really hard to do. Claussen is much worse than Cuter (hurts me to write this), Jeffery is once again out, and the rest of the Bears’ skill position players are pretty mediocre. Jermon Bushrod is also out for the Bears, weakening their O-line. I guess the game-plan will be once again to run Forte into a wall 20+ times in this one. Oakland is a bad defense but they’re not as bad as the Bears, who have traded away Allen this week which should only make them worse. Unlike Chicago, what the Raiders have is actually a pretty good offense. Carr is 9th in QBR on the year and both Latavius Murry and Amari Cooper are better than any playmakers on the Bears’ active roster for this one. In addition, there’s a mismatch in the Special Teams with Oakland ranking 7th while the Bears are 31st. Keep in mind that Del Rio is familiar with Fox as he’s been on his staff in both CAR and DEN. Will that give him a bit of an edge? Possibly. Not easy to back the Raiders as a road favorite but I believe this line is definitely justified. Just keep in mind that Chicago should be expected to play ‘better’ than they have the last few weeks, as the Oakland is not on the same level as GB, ARZ, and SEA.
Lean: OAK -3 (pass at OAK -3.5)
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PHI @ WAS +3
Eagles win one game and they go back to being ‘overvalued’ eh? Let’s look at some stats from that game. Bradford completed 50% of his passes for 4.2 PY/A (pathetic) and a QBR of 26. Eagles rushed for 123 yards on 38 attempts for a 3.2 YPC average. As a team, this Philly team averaged 3.4 YPP (Yards Per Play) and converted 29% on 3rd downs. So how did they win the game? They had a punt return for a TD and defense played out of its mind, forcing 4 TO’s and holding the Jets to only 19 YPPT (Yards Per Point). My point here is that Philly is still the same team we’ve seen the first 2 weeks of the season: horrible offensively and strong on the defensive end. Last week I faded Washington against the Giants with one main factor being my expectation of a drop off in their defensive performance from the previous game, when they dominated STL at home (10 points allowed / 213 yards). Giants scored 32 on Washington in week 3 with 363 yards of offense and 6.7 YPP. Well, I expect a similar drop off in Philly’s defensive performance this time around as it’s very hard to maintain the same HIGH level from game to game. Last year both games were 3-point contests (each team won once) between these two teams so Washington is comfortable playing competitive games against Chip Kelly’s squads. With 10-days to prepare, I like their chances here, especially with a generous spread. (Keep an eye on the weather as this game could potentially move to week 8)
Lean: WAS +3
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KC @ CIN -3.5
While Sean Smith is back for the Chiefs, they’ve lost Phillip Gaines, their slot CB, to an ACL injury. This secondary was horrific last week against Green Bay and I’m not sure they’ll be much better in this matchup. The real issue for the Chiefs is the play of Alex Smith who is quickly showing that his low-TO campaign last year was a fluke, as he’s one of the worst QB’s in the league this season. His 24 QBR is only better than Bradford’s 16 through the first 3 weeks. When you have a weak-armed QB that can’t make downfield throws and facing a defense with shut down cornerbacks (Jones is #2 and Hall is #34 according to PFF) bad things tend to happen. I’ve re-watched that Green Bay game and some of the throws Smith made were simply inexcusable. He played like a ‘deer in the headlights’ something that NFL rookies tend to do, and not a 11-year veteran. Chiefs were 6-point underdogs @ Green Bay last week, and now they’re only 3.5-point underdogs at Cincy on a short week. Seems too low too me against a team that is 13-4 ATS at home in the last 17.
Lean: CIN -3.5
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CLE @ SD -7
Chargers will be without King Dunlap, Orlando Franklin, and Chris Watt as their O-lien is severely depleated. DJ Fluker is questionable so even if he plays he might not be 100%. People often say that good NFL teams are build through their lines, well San Diego’s O-line will be in shambles for this matchup. Even so the spread is still inflated in this game. Cleveland is 27th against the run on D but they should have an easier time in this one. Of course it’s not like SD is much better as they rank 28th against the run. Expect a conservative run-heavy approach from Cleveland in this one. I think both teams will have a hard time moving the ball efficiently on offense and this game could come down to one big play. With San Diego ranking 28th on Special Teams and Cleveland having explosive returners while ranking 2nd overall, this might very well be the difference in this game. Regardless, nothing the Chargers have done so far should allow them to be such a high favorite in this one from my perspective.
Lean: CLE +7
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GB @ SF +7
Wasn’t it only a few years ago when San Fran was beating the Packers consistently in the playoffs with Green Bay failing to adjust? Last time Packers played in San Fran they were 5.5-point underdogs and when the 49ers visited Green Bay in the post-season that year they were listed as a -3 point road favorite. Oh how times have changed. So easy win for the Packers here right? Well, a couple of factors to think about. Historically Kaepernick has given Green Bay’s defense fits, more so with the zone-run plays than anything else. I’m assuming by now the Packers should have some sort of a game-plan to contain him, and keep him inside the pocket. You want an inaccurate QB like Kaepernick to beat you via the pass rather than with his legs. With Clay Matthews playing inside now, I’d expect him to shadow Kaepernick on pass-plays. We’ll see if Green Bay is able to contain him. Second factor to consider is the fact that San Fran ranks 4th in run-offense while Green Bay is dead-last in defending the run. If Hyde and Kaepernick are able to move the chains via the run, then this game should be fairly close. We’ll see if Packers put 8 in the box and force San Fran to throw more often than they’d like. Finally, let’s remember that this is a short week for Green Bay and they travel to the West Coast for this one. After two straight dominant wins at home this could be a ‘classic’ let-down spot. Still, let’s not forget that San Fran is one of the worst teams in the league. They have the 30th ranked D and 29th ranked O, so chances are they won’t be able to stop Rodgers and Co. nor keep up with him offensively. The spread has moved from +8.5 to +7.5 and now to +7 in a number of spots. There might have been ‘value’ on the number above a TD but at -7 it’s tempting to grab the Packers. Those few factors described above that could lead to a competitive game shouldn’t be disregarded though.
Lean: GB -7
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MIN @ DEN -7
I think I mentioned it last week but Denver has the #1 ranked D and the 31st ranked O so far this year. The offense played better last week and it looks like Manning will get his way and play out of the shotgun going forward. That’s a promising thing for this O. The key for Denver is getting CJ Anderson going. He’s been banged up a bit this year and running behind an underwhelming O-line hasn’t helped. Minnesota ranks only 23rd against the run so this could be the game when Denver’s run-O gets going. I think this is going to be a tough game for the Vikings. I know they’re coming off two straight wins but those were at home, and against DET and SD, two teams that look to be very mediocre this year. Remember how the Vikings looked on the road in week 1? Well, on the road in week 4 could be just as bad of a scenario for them. Bridgewater has been pretty ineffective so far and now he’ll be without Charles Johnson. Peterson will be running into a tough run-D, so I think this will be the game that Bridgewater has to win himself. I don’t like his chances. Denver has stud CB’s, excellent pass-rush, and the #1 ranked pass-D. I expect a tough game for Minnesota.
Lean: DEN -7
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STL @ ARZ -7
Arizona looks like the best team in the NFC but let’s remember that they’ve played NO, CHI, and SF, three teams which could easily be the 3 worst teams in the league when it’s all said and one this year. Now the Cardinals will play a divisional opponent, which often leads to a tough close battle. Rams have a top-10 D and ST’s, and will get their stud rookie RB Gurley even more involved this week. Cardinals like to throw the ball deep but might not be able to against this dominant STL D-line. Plus I don’t see Arizona’s run-game being as effective as it was last week even with Mike Iupati making his debut. I want to see this Arizona offense perform against a quality D before I can comfortably lay a TD with them. This one is a pass for me.
PASS
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DAL @ NO -3
Brees is back as is Keenan Lewis and Jairus Byrd. So the Saint’s offense will improve as will their pass-D. Cowboys will still be without Romo, Bryant, Gregory, Hardy, and McClain, as the latter two are expected to rejoin the team next week. Basically you have one team getting ‘better’, while the other one remains in a bad shape with key players injured. I’ll keep it simple: Brees vs Weeden is a huge mismatch and I expect the Saints to break their home losing streak on Sunday.
Lean: NO -3
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