2014 NFL “Regular Season” Record
63 – 54 @ 54% for +3.6 Units
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2014 NFL “Playoff” Record
9 – 2 for @ 82% +6.8 Units
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Future Plays (Completed):
Seattle Seahawks to win the NFC -140 - Won
Future Plays (Pending):
Seattle Seahawks to win the Super Bowl +200 (5Dimes)
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Super Bowl XLIX:
#1: UNDER 48 NE/SEA
#2: UNDER 24 NE/SEA (1st Half)
Last year Denver came into the Super Bowl off a dominant win against New England, a game they led 13-3 at halftime, 20-3 after the 3rd quarter, and 26-10 with half the quarter left to play. They ended up winning 26-16 but outgained NE 507 to 320, averaged 7.1 YPP, and dominated New England in virtually every phase of the game. On the other side, Seattle came off a tough game against the 49ers, a game they trailed 10-3 at the half and trailed 17-13 entering the 4th quarter. Both teams gained 308 yards (never seen that before), with 49ers outgaining Seattle 5.7 to 5.3 YPP. Seattle needed to have a 3-0 turnover-advantage in the game plus a last minute INT in the end-zone by Sherman just to pull out a very close win. The spread in the Super Bowl last year opened at -1.5 Seattle, but quickly it was bet down by the sharps and public alike, eventually closing at +2.5 SEA, a full 4-point swing! We all know how that game turned out.
This year, the narrative is very similar. New England is coming off an absolute trouncing of the Colts, outgaining them almost 2 to 1 (397 to 209 to be exact) in yardage, dominating the time of possession (38 to 22 mins), and virtually running the ball down Indy’s throat as NE’s 40 rushing attempts were a season high. It was as complete a game as we’ve seen in the playoffs. By comparison, Seattle needed a “miracle” (and McCarthy’s conservative game-plan) just to pull out a win at home. Seattle committed 5 turnovers and Russell Wilson played the WORST first 55-minutes of his career, yet somehow they still found a way to win (He was 9 for 23, 108 yards, and 0 TD to 4 INT’s in the first 55 minutes. Then 5 for 6 for 101 yards with 2 TD’s (1 rushing) in the final 5 mins + OT). To no-one’s surprise, the Super Bowl opener of SEA -3 was quickly bet down to PK by the end of the night (started getting bet down in the 2nd half of the IND/NE game). The current line is -1 NE (and even -1.5 and -2 NE at some books), so we are already seeing a 4.5+ point swing. And who knows, as the public keeps proclaiming that “Pats will kill the Seahawks in the Super Bowl”, in two weeks’ time we might see +2.5 SEA again, just like we did last year. The “million dollar” question is, will history repeat itself?
Last year I backed Seattle in the Super Bowl, as I clearly believed they were the slightly better team and loved the fact that I was catching 4.5 points of ‘value’ (from -1.5 opener to +2.5 closing). This year though, I do NOT think they are a better team than the Patriots. I also do NOT think they are a worse team. I actually believe both of these teams are fairly even. Let’s run a few comparisons between last year’s and this year’s Super Bowl opponents to help me confirm this notion.
2014 Super Bowl (2013 NFL Season):
SRS (Simple Rating System)
SEA +13.0 vs DEN +11.4 – advantage SEA +2.4
weighted-DVOA
SEA +44% vs DEN +27% - advantage SEA +17%
Relative Strength Rating
SEA +11.6 vs DEN +11.2 – advantage SEA +0.2
My personal Model
SEA 26.2 – 25.5 DEN – advantage SEA +0.7
Most of the ‘reliable’ metrics that I like to use all had Seattle as a slightly favorite (DVOA actually had them as a ‘heavy’ favorite) in last year’s Super Bowl. Combined that with the ‘value’ we received on the public over-reacting to the AFC/NFC Championship games and it was a fairly easy choice who to back last year. Let’s compare to this year’s metrics. As you are reading them, keep in mind the differences in the numbers for the Seahawks between the two years – Seattle is NOT as good this year as they were in the 2013 season:
2015 Super Bowl (2014 NFL Season):
SRS (Simple Rating System)
SEA +8.4 vs NE +10.3 – advantage NE +1.9
weighted-DVOA
SEA +33% vs NE +31% - advantage SEA +2%
Relative Strength Rating
SEA +8.8 vs NE +9.8 – advantage NE +1.0
My personal Model
NE 22.6 – 22.1 SEA – advantage NE +0.5
As you can see, a number of various indicators show that New England is a slight favorite by about 0.5 / 1 point. Unlike last year, when all the indicators agreed that Seattle was the ‘better’ team (slightly!), this year 3 out of the 4 picking New England (even slightER). Very important to note – barely! My personal model has both teams virtually tied, which confirms to me that the fair line on this game should be at Pick ‘Em, which is exactly where it ended on Sunday night.
The majority of the public will ignore the fact that Seattle played the 3rd best team (Green Bay) in the league in the NFC Championship while New England played the #13 ranked team (Indy) in theirs, or the fact that this same Pats team ACTUALLY got beat by the Packers earlier this season (week 13), or the fact that the Pats needed a huge comeback of their own, against the Ravens (#5 ranked team) in the Divisional Round, a game where the Pats only had an 8% chance of winning at one point in the 2nd half (according to the Advanced NFL Stats model). The public is going to ‘forget’ about all of that, and run to the window to back New England in this Super Bowl just because they watched them obliterate a talent-less Colts team last week (except Luck and Vontae Davis of course!). Well, I won’t be either joining nor fading the public here. In all actuality, I believe that both teams have an equal chance to win this game and there’s really zero value whatsoever in backing one over the other. But there is definitely ‘value’ in this Championship game – take a look at the TOTAL.
If you look at my predicted score again I have it at 22.6 – 22.1, or a total of 44.7 points ~ let’s say 45. The current posted total is at 48, a full FG higher. Typically you just don’t see this kind of ‘value’ in the Super Bowl, so either my model is off, or maybe the bookmakers have purposely shaded this total a bit higher, knowing that the public loves to bet OVERS in big game. (I’d expect a lot of NE/OVER parlays to be placed in this one.) Regardless, I believe we will see a lower scoring game than expected. Here’s why:
I’ve mentioned in the past write-ups in these playoffs, that both NE and SEA are two of the best defensive teams in the post-season. In the 2nd half of the year, Seattle has allowed 10 PPG, 22.9 YPPT-A (Yards per Point Allowed), and an average defensive DVOA of -27%. At the same time, New England has allowed 17 PPG, 20.5 YPPT-A, and an average defensive DVOA of -21% in the 2nd half of the year. For comparison purposes SEA ended the year with the #1 defensive DVOA @ -16%, followed by Buffalo @ -16% (15.6% to be exact), and DET at -14%. Of course those are FULL YEAR numbers, but if we used Seattle’s and New England 2nd halves ONLY, these two teams would rank #1 and #2 defensively and the rest of the league wouldn’t even be close. Both of these teams have made tremendous improvements defensively over the course of the season. Take a look:
Seahawks: -6% 1st half => -27% 2nd half = +21% improvement
Patriots: +7% 1st half => -21% 2nd half = +28% improvement
It’s very easy to see how much each team improved defensively over a course of the season as players were coming off injuries/suspensions (Browner, Wagner, Jones, Maxwell, Chancellor) and the teams jelling as the season went on (Revis – 1st year with Pats, Browner – 1st year with Pats, K. Williams – 1st year with Seattle, Irvin – 1st year as a starter, etc.) I believe the defensive units from the 2nd half of the year is what we’ll see in this Super Bowl, and both units are elite.
Of course having two ‘elite’ defenses does not mean that a game automatically will go UNDER, especially with both offenses being ‘elite’ as well. But I believe that both of these defenses are built to stop the other team’s offensive attack.
When New England has the ball:
Pats have an excellent short-passing attack as well as a solid run-game. That’s a good thing because you beat this Seattle D by having ‘balance’ on offense, keeping their pass-rushers at bay while also attacking their D right up the gut. Seattle D has too much later quickness and is excellent at tackling, thus by simply running screens and slants all day won’t get it done. You have to have “balance” by running AND passing the ball effectively. I expect the Pats to have this exact game-plan, especially early on. A balanced offensive attack like this will be able to grind out yards but I just don’t see many ‘explosive’ plays out of this New England offense. Seattle’s D ranked #1 in preventing explosive plays this season, while Brady ranked as one of the worst in deep throws down the field, both in volume and in success-rate. Neither Blount nor Gray possess breakaway speed and Vereen just doesn’t get utilized enough as a runner. Big, explosive plays will be hard to come by here so I expect the Pats to sustain long drives in order to put up points in this game. In addition, Seattle is one of those few teams that can matchup with Gronk, as they have some of the best coverage linebackers in the league as well as excellent safeties. If they can take away Gronk and close down one side of the field with Sherman, then the Pats could have a pretty difficult time moving the ball consistently.
When Seattle has the ball:
Of course I also believe that New England’s D is a tough matchup for the Seahawks as well. First of all, it starts with Revis, who could probably be expected to shadow Baldwin, Seattle’s best receiver. Or, if New England decides to do what they did against the Colts, and put their slot-corner Arrington on Baldwin with McCourty providing help over the top, they should be just as successful. This approach worked twice against the Colts this year and they limited Indy’s best receiver TY Hilton to 4 catches on 13 targets and 60 total yards through 2 games. Either approach should work as I don’t expect Baldwin to be very effective in this game. That’s a big issue because opposite Baldwin is Jermaine Kearse. Most might remember him for his game winning catch in OT of the NFC Championship. But it’s important to remember him for the fact that ALL 4 of Russell Wilson’s INT’s happened when he was targeting Kearse. Two of them were Kearse’s fault as they bounced off his hands, while the other two were just bad decisions by Wilson. It’s important to note on those two throws where it wasn’t Kearse’s fault, he was completely covered both times, and seemed to struggle getting much separation (except for the last play of the game, which was just really poor coverage by the Packers). My point here is that if Baldwin is smothered by this Pats’ D, where will Wilson go with the ball? Will the Seahawks have enough confidence in Kearse to utilize him consistently in such a high-pressure game? Possibly, but I’d be very wary. In addition, keep in mind that New England has excellent linebackers in Collins and Hightower, and I expect one or both to be used as a ‘spy’ on Wilson when he drops back to pass, the same way that Matthews was last week. It’s just hard to imagine this Seattle offense having much success via the pass. The more realistic game-plan is to utilize the run-game consistently, especially in the first half. Marshawn Lynch is one of the best running backs in the league and I expect the Seahawks to use him often and early in this game. A successful running game will force the Pats to single-cover Baldwin and bring the safeties up, while in addition will open up running lanes for Wilson via the ‘zone read’. But, of course you have to first “establish the run” so to say (I hate this term really but I do think it applies to Seattle’s game-plan in this game) and I would expect Seattle to run the ball often in the first half of this one.
Bottom line is this. Both defenses are well built to stop the opposing team’s offense. I think both offenses will struggle generating big, explosive plays in this one, and will need to grind out long drives to put up points on the board. Additionally, I believe that both teams will start out a bit “safe”. Seahawks can’t afford the repeat of the NFC Championship game, so it’s important to keep the game close, minimize turnovers, and set the tone to this one early. Pats, on the other hand, might have a difficult time being as aggressive as they normally are on offense – they are facing the BEST defense in the league after all. In addition, with two weeks to prepare for Seattle, I doubt New England will be very successful running ‘gimmick’ plays like they have been the last few weeks. These are two very even teams from my perspective and I expect both to play a tight, clean game. If that’s the case, I believe the UNDER has a great shot of hitting here. And even if one, or both teams, open things up in the 2nd half, at the very least I expect a pretty low scoring 1st half.
Enjoy the Super Bowl everyone.
Good Luck!
And Go Hawks! (I have a future play on ‘em ;)
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Super Bowl Prop Bets:
These are fun ‘action’ wagers only as I don’t go crazy with props.
All odds are on 5Dimes.
Each wager Unit = 1/5 th of my typical Unit amount.
#1: NO score 1st 6:30 of the game -115 (2 Units)
Like I’ve mentioned in my analysis, I expect each team to implement a well-balanced offensive game-plan in this one. Therefore, whichever team gains possession first, will run the ball enough times on the first drive to milk some clock. Since I’m expecting a conservative game-plan by each team to start out the game, I think as long as we see an ‘opening possession’ punt, this play should hit. Regardless, with both elite defenses in this one, I see each offense requiring long time-consuming drives in this game. Even if the team with the first possession can sustain one such drive, hopefully they use more than 6.5 minutes prior to the first score.
#2: First score NOT a TD +125 (2 Units)
This one is a bit of a ‘hedge’ against my first prop play, since if there is a long opening kick-off or one big play on the first drive, the offensive team could be in a FG-range quickly. Hopefully the opposing D can then prevent the offense from reaching the end-zone, thus resulting in a FG attempt.
#3: Points scored 2nd Half + OT -0.5 -125 (3 Units)
Basically I’m predicting that the 2nd half of the Super Bowl will be higher scoring than the first half. Again, just goes along with my analysis for both teams starting out a bit slower than expected, and opening things up in the 2nd half. In addition, here’s how the 1st halves vs 2nd halves of all the Super Bowls in the 2000’s compared:
2014: 22 pts 1st / 29 pts 2nd (+7)
2013: 27 pts 1st / 38 pts 2nd (+11)
2012: 19 pts 1st / 19 pts 2nd (0)
2011: 31 pts 1st / 25 pts 2nd (-6)
2010: 16 pts 1st / 32 pts 2nd (+16)
2009: 24 pts 1st / 26 pts 2nd (+2)
2008: 10 pts 1st / 21 pts 2nd (+11)
2007: 30 pts 1st / 16 pts 2nd (-14)
2006: 10 pts 1st / 21 pts 2nd (+11)
2005: 14 pts 1st / 31 pts 2nd (+17)
2004: 24 pts 1st / 37 pts 2nd (+13)
2003: 23 pts 1st / 46 pts 2nd (+23)
2002: 17 pts 1st / 20 pts 2nd (+3)
2001: 10 pts 1st / 31 pts 2nd (+21)
2000: 9 pts 1st / 30 pts 2nd (+21)
As you can see from this data, out of 15 Super Bowls in the years 2000 – 2014, 12 of them had higher scoring 2nd halves. That’s 80% of the last 15 Super Bowls with an average margin of +9.1 points more scored in the 2nd half than the 1st. So 80% success-rate roughly translates to -400 odds. The posted odds of -125 translates to a 56% success-rate. Seems like solid ‘value’ to me.
#4: L. Blount NO TD scored -130 (2 Units)
LeGarrette Blount is coming off a phenomenal game where he registered almost 150 yards on the ground and scored 3 TD’s. Of course he is NOT playing the Colts this week. In Blount’s 2 career playoff games against the Colts, he’s registered a total of 7 TD’s. In his other 74 career games (including playoffs), Blount has scored 25 TD’s, or roughly 1 TD for every 3 games played, which of course translates to 33% TD-odds. Well, at -130 for the “NO TD”, that implies that he’ll score a TD 43% of the time (1 – 57%) in this matchup, which is substantially higher than Blount’s career odds of 33%. Besides, Seattle is one of the premier defenses in the league and is on a whole another level from the Colts D. I’ll grab the value here, and believe that this Seattle D will be able to take Blount out of the equation.
#5: Player to score 1st TD – Luke Willson +1800 (1 Unit)
New England ranks 30th defending TE’s this year. With Revis shadowing Baldwin and Seattle being careful on relying on Kearse too much in this one, I think Willson could be a bigger part of the game-plan in this game. The fact that Willson’s odds of +1800 are close to Baldwin’s +1400 and Kearse’s +1700, tells me that the bookmakers believe he has just as good of a chance as the other two guys. Of course Lynch @ +550 is the favorite but I’m sure NE will sell out to contain him in the red-zone.
#6: Player to score 1st TD – Shane Vereen +1700 (1 Unit)
Typically if I’m going to make a play on a long-shot to score the 1st TD, I like to take another player from the opposite team. This way you have ‘action’ regardless of which team enters the red-zone first. As far as Vereen is concerned, I believe he’ll be a big part of New England’s game-plan. Seattle will try to take away Gronk and of course Sherman will neutralize his side of the field. That should leave the short-middle fairly open for a guy like Vereen to operate in. Vereen has scored at least one TD in 4 of the 16 regular season games facing MIA (twice), NYJ, and DEN. These opponents rank 18th, 11th, and 3rd in defensive efficiency against the run. Seattle ranks 2nd in this metric. I expect NE to have balance to a degree as overall I think they’ll utilize Vereen plenty in this game, both running the ball, but more so in the pass-game. At the posted odds, he’s the 5th most likely Patriot to score the 1st TD of the game (after Gronk, Blount, Edelman, and LaFell). I’ll take a shot with him.
Good Luck