Speaking with some good people this morning at Sports Insights, there are two trends that make me lean towards Baltimore, certainly ATS.
1) NFL Playoff Favorites have gone 9-9 ATS with exactly 12 days between games, but are just 9-26 ATS with 13 or 14 days between games.
Now with that said, I'm not going to back some of these numbers unless I can find a fundamental trend that helps solidify its case. Now with this trend in particular, it is my opinion (which I voiced this morning) that those numbers might be skewed somewhat, knowing that the prominent fundamental reason for this trend is that the favorite comes out rusty. My argument is that some of those numbers involved teams who locked up playoff spots much earlier than week 17, i.e. the Colts with Peyton Manning. Teams that lock up playoffs with #1 or #2 seeds by going 14-1, 13-2 and have rested starters much longer than the 13-14 days listed. This stat shows a team trend (meaning only accounting for the time off between week 17 and the divisional round) but we could have had players rested for 21 day or even more!
If we look at the 4 match ups we have next week, every one of those teams played their starters in week 17 (with the exception of DEN & NE who rested their guys in the 2nd half) ...moreover the NFC as a conference had something to actually play for all the way through the end of the season, so it's my opinion that we shouldn't put a ton of stock into this...if we had one of those 14-1 type teams resting guys 2-3 weeks out, I would consider this....
2) Since 2003, 5 and 6 seeds that made it through Wildcard Weekend are 15-5 ATS in the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs.
This stat I like, but I still feel it has some of the fundamental flaws that would not make me follow it blindly.
All that said, out of the 4 match ups this coming weekend, BAL probably has the best chance to win outright. A lot of people are saying the Cowboys, and I understand all that, but I just feel GB at home is just going to be too much for this team....and also when all the noise is about how NE "should" be scared that they drew BAL in this match up, makes me actually lean towards NE at this point.
Also remember that the spread is only mattered 13% of the time during the divisional round of the playoffs (since 1978 & only in one WC game last weekend BTW) so if you do like some of these underdogs, don't be afraid to hedge some of your wagers on the ML.
At this point IMO, the only spread I feel that will come into play this weekend is CAR@SEA. It's going to be a much closer game than most people think.