The problem with bookmakers is that they use the same standardized strategy to create lines, such as giving the home team 3 points in every game and making a line to balance action. The problem with handicappers who decide what games to bet on is that they too use mostly standardized approaches to all the games instead of looking at each individual game on a unique basis.
I'm the first to say that I love underdogs in the NFL, especially ones over a touchdown. However, last night's game was a unique situation.
- Yes San Diego has had recent success against the Broncos, winning at Denver last year. However, Denver beat them by 7 and 8 points, including a touchdown victory at home in the playoffs.
- Denver is a different team this year than last year. Manning has several more games under his belt with his receiving group, and a better receiving group than last year by adding Emmanuel Sanders.
- The Broncos were red hot and clicking on all cylinders by beating and dominating two very good defenses in Arizona and San Francisco. What indication was there that made San Diego a good play here by assuming they could slow down Denver when those other teams could not?
- San Diego's starting cornerbacks were out for this game!
- Short week, making it harder for a quality coach like Mike McCoy to game plan as much as in a normal week, especially since they had to travel. These short weeks are extra tough for the traveling team.
- San Diego was also coming off of a tough divisional game, while Denver got to rest their players in the 4th quarter last Sunday.
The important thing to note is to not just say oh well I like underdogs in the NFL and underdogs are plays that sharp money and steam money usually take so let's jump onboard San Diego. I'm not saying to jump onboard donkey plays like the Patriots -10 against the Jets of two weeks ago. I'm saying take an intelligent approach to the game and figure out the underlying story. There are reasons why Denver covered last night and reasons why the Jets and Rams covered last week.
Thanks,
Evan