Vegas, NFL, and the Value Game
I read an article last summer about handicapping the NFL. Fritz Schlottman detailed in The Huddle, several popular methods, all of which took a lot of time to use and didn't necessarily guarantee a profit. He then outlined a method that can best be described as the "Idiots Guide to Winning Your NFL Bets." I'll post a link to the original article below, but the gist of the article said, "If each week you blindly bet the six best teams to cover the spread, you will win in excess of 65.21% of your bets. However, if each week you blindly bet against the four worst teams getting points, you will win in excess of 70.5% of your bets."
This article was written in 2004 and only detailed the 2003-2004 seasons. Obviously, this was a time when the lines weren't as sharp, but I checked the 2009-2013 seasons** and the numbers stayed true to the original premise and in every case you would show a profit well above the 52.5% +/- needed to be profitable. However, none of the years I checked showed such a huge win percentage, but there were several over 60% win.
The one big question that will come up is, "What if I'm wrong about when picking the four best or the four worst teams?" No worries, as the four worst teams SU are not always the four worst teams ATS and in most years some of the worst teams have decent ATS records and some of the best teams have crappy ATS records too. Example: this year Oakland is 0-6 SU, but 3-3 ATS, and New England is 5-2 SU and 3-4 ATS. I've been monitoring this closely this year as I'm interested in how bettors bet or ignore different value in the marketplace. Obviously, the lines makers take full advantage of public perception and make them pay a premium when betting big public favorites. But the big realization is the lines makers give the worst teams too much credit too. Fans and sharps alike refuse to believe that the bottom of the barrel is really as bad as they appear to be. It's the NFL after all, on any given Sunday…blah, blah, blah! And each year we have several big dog/favorite upsets to falsely bolster that opinion. Last year Arizona upset New England at New England and Dallas just bonked the Seahawks. But it's wrong and adhering to it will cost you money. And if you're in love with your middle-of-the-road team, the books have a special way to deal with you too.
In the table below, I listed the seven worst teams SU this year and the nine best teams SU. I wanted to use eight, but I wanted to use W/L records that were equal for the outliers. The reason I added more than four teams is to show that even if you're wrong about the four worst or best, you still have a good chance of hitting four of the eight. And even if you picked numbers 5 through 8 you'd still show a profit.
2014-2015 Seven Worst Teams SU
Team |
SU |
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ATS |
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Oakland |
0-6 |
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3-3 |
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Tampa Bay |
1-5 |
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2-4 |
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Jacksonville |
1-5 |
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2-5 |
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NY Jets |
1-5 |
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1-5-1 |
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Washington |
2-5 |
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2-5 |
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Minnesota |
2-5 |
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3-4 |
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St. Louis |
2-4 |
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2-4 |
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Total |
9-35 or 20.45 win % |
Total |
15-30 or 33% win % |
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2014-2015 Nine Best Teams SU
Team |
SU |
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ATS |
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Dallas |
6-1 |
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5-2 |
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Philadelphia |
5-1 |
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4-2 |
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Denver |
5-1 |
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3-3 |
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Arizona |
5-1 |
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4-2 |
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Green Bay |
5-2 |
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4-2-1 |
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New England |
5-2 |
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3-4 |
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Baltimore |
5-2 |
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4-2-1 |
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Indianapolis |
5-2 |
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6-1 |
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San Diego |
5-2 |
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5-2 |
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Total |
46-14 or 77% win |
Total |
38-20 or 66% win |
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As it turns out so far this year, if you bet blindly on the favorites and against the worst teams, you'd be hitting about 66% winners. You can figure out the variations for yourself, but the numbers show profitability.
I am not suggesting anyone follow this method blindly. What I do suggest is that you do the research and verify the numbers yourself for the last 5 years. It might take an hour or two to do and you can use the Team Ranking link below to get you there. In the process you will uncover valuable information that you can use to judge the method for yourself. You'll also get clued into the fact that not all great teams are winners ATS and not all bad teams should be avoided. What was valuable last week just might be worthless this week. Flexibility is a handicappers best friend.
** Regarding the 2009-2013 seasons, I used the best 8 teams and the 8 worst teams to verify the results. Obviously, it's impossible to retroactively pick the worst and best because I already know the results, so using the SU records of the 8 teams gave me a fair cross-section.
To read the original article: http://www.thehuddle.com/classics/04_fs_handff_p1.php
To verify past SU and ATS numbers: http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/trends/ats_trends/
As always, this is just my opinion and I recommend you do the work for yourself before following anyone's betting advice or theories. Gambling should be fun. Winning makes it even more fun. Good luck going forward.
Week 8 thru week 17 results ATS - using Scores and Odds closing lines
KWC and LukeV posted their best and worst so the table below will track the win/loss ATS record through the end of the regular season.
Scotty's Picks
4 Best & 4 Worst |
Week 8 |
Week 9 |
Week 10 |
Week 11 |
Week 12 |
Week 13 |
Week 14 |
Week 15 |
Week 16 |
Week 17 |
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Denver |
W |
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Indianapolis |
L |
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San Diego |
L |
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San Francisco |
bye |
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Oakland |
L |
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Jacksonville |
L |
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NY Jets |
L |
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Tampa Bay |
L |
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5-2 |
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KWC's Picks
4 Best & 4 Worst |
Week 8 |
Week 9 |
Week 10 |
Week 11 |
Week 12 |
Week 13 |
Week 14 |
Week 15 |
Week 16 |
Week 17 |
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Denver |
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Dallas |
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Indianapolis |
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San Diego |
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Oakland |
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Jacksonville |
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Tampa Bay |
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NY Jets |
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LukeV's Picks
4 Best & 4 Worst |
Week 8 |
Week 9 |
Week 10 |
Week 11 |
Week 12 |
Week 13 |
Week 14 |
Week 15 |
Week 16 |
Week 17 |
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Denver |
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Indianapolis |
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Green Bay |
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San Francisco |
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Oakland |
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Jacksonville |
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NY Jets |
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Tampa Bay |
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