Toofdoc said:
Bob
Do you have any opinion on why so many people did so well this year? Is this an anomaly or just the norm with the expanded number of entries?
Thanks for all your work
Toof
Several things to note: 1) the # of entrants is up significantly, 36%, from last year which had an abnormally bad overall W/L record just under 50%. 2) this year the overall W/L is up to a record level, 51.73% 3) usage of stale lines by the good handicappers has risen this year (haven't quantified this, so just a gut feel).
I have modeled the Supercontest for several years, and before Week 1, I projected a first place 70% win rate (59.5 points) and an overall win rate of 50.8%. Obviously these will be exceeded.
At 1400 or more entries, the top prize winner and other leaders will tend to have a much better win% than the days of 250-350 entrants, that is due mostly to the large size of the field. Variance accounts for most of the rest, but it is possible that the population of good cappers has increased relative to the "dead money". It may be some years before we see 3 entrants at 70% or more and another 4 at more than 68% going into Week 17.