NFL Week 10 - 215 Buffalo Bills @ 216 New England Patriots
Projected Line: New England by 17 points
Most of the recent games between these two teams have ended with the Patriots crushing the Bills on a very high scoring game and today's game should be no exception. Even though he's not having a MVP kind of season, Tom Brady is still having a super solid season with a 16/3 TD/INT ratio, while being in the top 10 in all of the major quarterback stats in the game, including completions percentage, yards per pass attempt, quarterback rating, third down conversion and red zone efficiency. After a couple of injuries, his offensive line is now back at a decent level and they should have no problems in crushing the Bills defense, which is specially bad in the clutch moments by being ranked dead last in the league in third down conversion allowed and red zone efficiency allowed. If the Patriots have an offensive edge over Buffalo on their passing game, that also happens with their running game, which is being a very pleasant surprise this season and they should be able to crush the Bills run defense, which is the worst run defense I've ever seen by allowing a ridiculous 5.7 rushing yards per carry! New England scored 52 points in Buffalo back in week 4 and I wouldn't be surprised if they get near to this number once again today, even though they will be without their TE Aaron Hernandez for today's game.
Buffalo's offense has been very inconsistent this season and I can't expect great things from Ryan Fitzpatrick today. He's being an average quarterback and even though the Patriots have indeed a poor pass defense, they aren't as bad as they were last season, while Ryan Fitzpatrick isn't able to keep throwing big passes throughout the whole game, something that his team would need today to be able to keep up with New England's fast paced and super efficient offense. Buffalo has indeed a good running game, with Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller forming an excellent duo of running backs, however New England is #2 on the league on rushing yards allowed per carry with just 3.5 yards and they should be able to limit Buffalo's offensive production today. I believe the Bills will score a decent number of points today, the problem is that New England is going to put another ridiculous number of points on them. New England is coming from a bye week, they have a very good spot for today and so, I expect a clear double digits points win for them today. I'll be taking the Patriots in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 216 New England Patriots (-13,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Final Score: Buffalo 31 New England 37
NFL Week 10 - 219 San Diego Chargers @ 220 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Projected Line: Tampa Bay by 6 points
Both teams are coming from wins last week, however I have absolutely no doubt that Tampa Bay is on a better moment than San Diego right now. The Bucs offense is carrying a lot of momentum and they are #1 in the league on yards per play! Josh Freeman is having a career season and he has currently a 16/5 TD/INT ratio, while being #3 in yards per pass attempt, #9 in QB rating and #4 in red zone efficiency! He has a problem with his completion percentage, but he compensates that with some excellent big plays, where he keeps finding his receivers. If Tampa Bay was dangerous just with their passing game, they only got much more dangerous with the explosion of rookie RB Doug Martin, who has rushed for 386 yards on his last two games! The offensive line is also working very well, even with Carl Nicks out for the season, and Tampa Bay has definitely one of the best offenses in football right now. San Diego has a good run defense and an average pass defense, but considering the momentum the Bucs offense is currently carrying, I wouldn't be surprised if Doug Martin runs over the Chargers today, while San Diego struggles to stop the Bucs' passing game as well. Also note that San Diego is #31 in red zone efficiency allowed, while Tampa Bay is #4 in red zone efficiency, so the Bucs will have a good matchup to take advantage of the opportunities that they will surely have to score touchdowns.
If Tampa Bay's offense is currently amazing, the same can't be said about their secondary. However, I just don't trust Philip Rivers right now. He may have completed 18 of his 20 passes last week against Kansas City, but one of his two missed passes resulted in an easy interception on a terrible pass by Rivers. He's just being an average quarterback this season (#6 in completion percentage, #21 in yards per pass attempt, #13 in QB rating, #14 in third downs and #18 in red zone efficiency), while having a poor 12/10 TD/INT ratio. Tampa Bay has already intercepted the opposing quarterback 13 times this season, so don't be surprised if they also intercept Rivers today. The Chargers have an average running game to support their passing game, but Tampa Bay is #1 on run defense with 3.4 rushing yards allowed per carry and therefore, I don't expect Ryan Matthews and his teammates to have a positive game today.
Tampa Bay is carrying a lot of momentum right now, while San Diego was lucky to have faced Kansas City last week, in order to stop their losing streak because the truth is that the Chargers aren't playing well right now. I believe the Bucs will have a big offensive game today, while San Diego will struggle on offense, so I'll be taking Tampa Bay for another win today.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 220 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bookmaker
Final Score: San Diego 24 Tampa Bay 34
NFL Week 10 - 221 Denver Broncos @ 222 Carolina Panthers
Projected Line: 43 points
I expect this game to be a surprisingly low scoring game. I know Peyton Manning is having a ridiculously good season, however he will be facing a very good defense today. Unlike what happened on Denver's last two games, where they faced the two poor pass defenses of New Orleans and Cincinnati, the Panthers are definitely improving on defense, after a very poor start of the season. They completely stopped RGIII last week and they have allowed just 16 points to Seattle, 19 points to Dallas, 23 points to Chicago and 13 points to Washington on their last four games. Not bad for a lowly team with a 2-6 record! The main reasons for the Panthers' good defensive performance are their pass rush who is working really well and a very good red zone defense, as they are #6 in the league in red zone efficiency allowed. I know Denver has a good offensive line and they are #2 in red zone efficiency, however I believe this is a letdown spot for Denver's offense, after a tough comeback win at Cincinnati last week and Carolina is certainly very motivated to play against Peyton Manning today.
The problem for the Panthers is that their offense keeps being a mess. Cam Newton is having a very disappointing sophomore season and even though he is #2 in yards per pass attempt, he is also #29 in completion percentage, #28 in QB rating and #20 in third down conversion, while posting a very poor 6/8 TD/INT ratio. The Panthers' offensive line is just average and it's expected that the Broncos' good pass rush put Newton in a lot of pressure today. Denver has been quite good in not allowing big passing plays to their opponents this season (#6 in yards per pass attempt), so I expect them to clearly limit Carolina's passing game today. The Panthers have a decent running game, but also in here Denver has a good run defense by being #6 in the league in rushing yards allowed per carry with just 3.7 yards. Therefore, I expect Denver to have a good defensive game and limit the Panthers to a low offensive production today.
As I expect Carolina to not allow Peyton Manning to have another huge game and the Broncos to clearly stop the Panthers' offense, I believe the totals line is just too high for the kind of game we will have in here. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under on this contest.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 221/222 Under 47 @ -105 / 1.95 on Bovada
Final Score: Denver 36 Carolina 14
NFL Week 10 - 227 Atlanta Falcons @ 228 New Orleans Saints
Projected Line: 57 points
The story for this game is quite simple: two great offenses + two poor defenses = shootout! After a poor start of the season, Drew Brees and the rest of the Saints offense is now back at a very good level. Drew Brees has already a good 22/8 TD/INT ratio, while being #8 in QB rating, #6 in third down conversion and #1 in red zone efficiency! Atlanta's pass defense has been surviving with their takeaways (already 10 interceptions), as they are just #21 in completion percentage, #22 in yards allowed per pass attempt, #11 in quarterback rating allowed, #22 in third down conversion allowed and #22 in red zone efficiency allowed. Atlanta's pass rush has been average and they shouldn't put a lot of pressure on Drew Brees, who should have no problems in having a good game today. The Saints' running game also reappeared last week against Philadelphia and I expect them to give a good help to the Saints passing game, as Atlanta's run defense is quite poor by being #30 in the league with 4.9 rushing yards allowed per carry!
The problem for New Orleans is that Atlanta will also pound their very poor defense. Matt Ryan is having a very good season, he is working extremely well with Julio Jones, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez, Michael Turner is also playing a bit better and Atlanta should have absolutely no problem in pounding the worst pass defense in the league and the second worst run defense in the league! Therefore, I expect this game to be a super high scoring game, with the winner scoring over 30 points and the loser being very close from that mark as well. So, even considering the high totals line, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 227/228 Over 53,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Final Score: Atlanta 27 New Orleans 31
NFL Week 10 - 229 Detroit Lions @ 230 Minnesota Vikings
Projected Line: Detroit by 6 points
Even though both teams have a similar record, it's clear that Detroit is on the rise, while Minnesota is regressing very quickly, after a very good start of the season. Matthew Stafford struggled early on the season, but he has regained his confidence back and he is now playing at a decent level. The main proof that his confidence is back is the fact that he has been especially good in the clutch moments of the games by being #9 in third down conversion and #8 in red zone efficiency. Minnesota's pass defense doesn't scare anybody by being #20 in completion percentage allowed, #8 in yards allowed per pass attempt, #23 in QB rating allowed, #28 in third down conversion allowed and #18 in red zone efficiency allowed. Their opponents have also a combined of 14/4 TD/INT against them, so I really believe that Matthew Stafford will have a good game today, especially when the Lions' offensive line has been playing well and they should be able to handle the Vikings good pass rush. Mikel Leshoure will have a tough opponent today in the Vikings run defense, but he is in decent form and he should be also able to provide some support to his team's offense.
But the main problem for the Vikings is Christian Ponder's slump. After a decent start of the season, Ponder has been a complete mess lately, with a complete inability of throwing a big pass, something that has put him in #29 in the league in yards per pass attempt. He has just thrown 63 passing yards against Seattle last week and that was the second time in three games that he just couldn't throw the football, as he had just 58 passing yards against Arizona three weeks ago. With Percy Harvin doubtful for today, I seriously doubt things will change today. With the passing game simply not working, it's up to Adrian Peterson to carry the offense on his own. He has been amazing over the last few weeks, but he can't just do everything on his own and Detroit's run defense isn't terrible, so they should be able to somewhat limit the damage Peterson will do today. It's also important to note that Peterson is coming from a huge game in Seattle and he has missed a practice Thursday due to illness.
I believe Minnesota is regressing big time and with their defense being just average and their passing game being a mess, I just don't see how they can be competitive against a Lions team that is carrying momentum right now and they look ready to get revenge over their divisional rivals, after losing at home with Minnesota back in week 4. I expect a comfortable win for Detroit today and so, I'll be taking them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 229 Detroit Lions (-2,5) @ -115 / 1.87 on 5Dimes
Final Score: Detroit 24 Minnesota 34
2-Team 6pts Teaser:
NFL Week 10 - 223 Tennessee Titans @ 224 Miami Dolphins
NFL Week 10 - 225 Oakland Raiders @ 226 Baltimore Ravens
A very strong wind is expected in today's game between Miami and Tennessee, so don't be surprised if the Titans keep doing what they were doing the whole time last week against Chicago: turning over the football. Jake Locker returns today to the field after being out for a month of a half due to a shoulder injury and he will immediately face one of the best defenses in football, who is coming from a poor showing in Indianapolis and so, they will look to bounce back today. Chris Johnson will also face one of the best run defenses in the league, so I really expect Miami to limit Tennessee's offense to a low efficiency level today. On the other hand, Ryan Tannehill is working very well with Brian Hartline and they should be able to expose the Titans' terrible secondary today. Tennessee's run defense is also quite poor, so Daniel Thomas and Reggie Bush have also a good opportunity to have a good game today. I expect Miami to shutdown the Titans offense today, while the Dolphins should be able to have a decent offensive game against Tennessee's poor defense, so I believe the Dolphins will easily win this game.
Even with their defense crushed with injuries, Baltimore should have no problems in winning this game. Joe Flacco isn't having a wonderful season, but Oakland's pass defense is also quite poor, so I wouldn't be surprised if Flacco actually has a good game today. Ray Rice should also be able to pound the Raiders' struggling run defense, who got completely ran over by Doug Martin last week. On the other hand, both Darren McFadden and Mike Goodson are out for today, so Oakland will have a running game efficiency close to zero today. Therefore, Carson Palmer will have to throw a lot today and he generally takes a lot of risks and that's a recipe for disaster when you face a Ravens defense that has just allowed six TD passes to their opponents this season. Baltimore should have no problems in winning this home game against the Raiders and so, I'll take them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 224 Miami Dolphins pk x 226 Baltimore Ravens (-1,5) @ -120 / 1.83 on Bookmaker
Final Score: TEN 37 MIA 3 / OAK 20 BAL 55
NFL Week 10 - 237 Houston Texans @ 238 Chicago Bears
Projected Line: 36 points | Houston by 3 points
This is one of the biggest games of the season so far, as both teams currently carry a 7-1 record. However, I believe Houston is a much more solid team than the Bears and they will show that tonight with a very important win for them. Matt Schaub is having a very solid season with 12/4 TD/INT ratio, while being #12 in completion percentage, #6 in yards per pass attempt, #7 in QB rating, #5 in third down conversion and #10 in red zone efficiency. The Texans offensive line have also been quite good this season and they should be able to control the Bears good pass rush today. Chicago has been very impressive on defense today, however note that they really depend on takeaways to stop their opponents from scoring and helping a quite average offensive unit to put points on the scoreboard. Matt Schaub is having a very solid season, he is quite experienced and I don't believe he will fall in the same traps that other much poorer and inexperienced fell against the Bears in previous weeks. Even though Chicago is 7-1 right now, the only team they defeated that currently has a positive record was Indianapolis and back in week 1, in Andrew Luck's NFL debut! Houston runs a very conservative offense by running the football a lot and they should be able to avoid turnovers today, with Matt Schaub having an unimpressive but solid performance, while Arian Foster will pound the football with decent effectiveness against an average Bears run defense that is #22 on the league in rushing yards allowed per carry.
With the Texans not turning over the football, the Bears' offense will heavily struggle in creating scoring opportunities against probably the best defense in football right now. Jay Cutler is having an average season with a 12/8 TD/INT ratio, while being #23 in completions percentage, #19 in yards per pass attempt, #18 in quarterback rating, #15 in third downs conversion and #23 in red zone efficiency. Now against Houston's great pass defense (#1 in completion percentage allowed, #4 in yards allowed per pass attempt, #3 in QB rating allowed, #1 in third down conversion allowed and #7 in red zone efficiency allowed), I really expect Jay Cutler to struggle today, especially when the Texans' great pass rush will put a lot of pressure on the Bears quite poor offensive line. Chicago's running game is quite decent as well with Matt Forte and Michael Bush, but also in here Houston defends quite well by being #9 in the league in rushing yards allowed per carry.
On a game that will be played under rain and a lot of wind, I expect Houston to be able to outplay Chicago due to the fact they have a better quarterback, a much better offensive line to protect their quarterback from the opposing quality pass rush and also a better run defense. I believe this game will turn into a very physical game, with both teams using the running game a lot, with Houston prevailing on a low scoring contest. Therefore, I'll be taking both the Texans and the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 237/238 Under 40 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 237 Houston Texans (+1.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Final Score: Houston 13 Chicago 6
NBA - 501 Orlando Magic @ 502 Brooklyn Nets
Projected Line: 187 points
This is the second game between these two teams in just three days, with Brooklyn having crushed Orlando by 107-68 last Friday! The Magic were a mess defensively and they weren't better on offense. They didn't go to the free throw line, they had a ridiculously amount of poor shots and they had a lot of turnovers. They will pass the ball to Glen Davis, Brooklyn would double team him and then, the Magic wouldn't just be able to rotate the ball. Jameer Nelson's absence is really making them struggle.
Brooklyn is being terrible on defending on the inside by being just #25 on post up defense, while they also can't stop the cuts from their opponents (#26). But they aren't getting exposed on that against Orlando, as the Magic don't have a good player that can pound them on the inside. Well, they have Glen Davis, but the Nets can easily double team team. Without Jameer Nelson and Hedo Turkoglu, Orlando is terrible on pick and rolls and with the Nets being #1 on pick and roll defense, nothing is working for the Magic offensively on this matchup. That's why they scored 68 points last Friday.
Of course Orlando will come to this game with more aggressiveness and they won't have just 8 free throw attempts this time. However, they won't be able to be competitive via their offense, so they will need to put a lot of effort on their defense. Brooklyn dominated the rebounds with 15 offensive rebounds and 6-8 FG on offensive rebound shots last Friday, however the Nets offense is still a work in progress and even though they had such an easy game last Friday, the truth is that they only had 21 assists for an assists rate of just 51.22%! They scored a lot of points because they shot extremely well from the outside with 2-2 FG from 10-15 feet, 8-18 FG from 16-23 feet and 9-23 3pts. With Orlando having a bigger defensive effort today and with Brooklyn not having a great ball movement, I expect the Nets to struggle more on offense today.
I believe Orlando will be making a good defensive effort today, while they can't really do anything on offense against the Nets, so I expect a low scoring game in here. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under on this contest.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501/502 Under 191 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
Final Score: Orlando 74 Brooklyn 82
NBA - 503 Atlanta Hawks @ 504 Los Angeles Clippers
Projected Line: 201 points | LA Clippers by 3 points
Atlanta is 2-2 right now, but they are coming from three competitive games against good teams: Oklahoma City, Indiana and Miami. The fact that they were competitive even with a lot of changes on their roster is a sign of good coaching. The Hawks are coming from a home loss against Miami, where they managed to have a mini comeback during the 4th quarter, but when they tied the game, they immediately two free throws and an alley hoop layup that could have tied them in the score once again. Jeff Teague continues being very assertive in both passing and shooting with 7-8 FG, 11 assists and 2 turnovers. Atlanta has a good ball movement that allows them to create good looks on the outside, with both Kyle Korver and Anthony Morrow taking advantage of that, while they are also being quite good on their pick and roll game with Al Horford and the guards.
The Hawks have deadly shooters and they are extremely effective on transition. They will have a Clippers defense that has been struggling exactly where the Hawks offense is performing well, as the Clippers are just #20 on transition defense, #20 on post ups and #18 in pick and roll ball handler. These are exactly the three areas where Atlanta has been impressive early on. The Clippers did a good job on defense over the last two games, but it was due to pure bad shooting from their opponents, with Portland shooting 8-20 FG from 16-23 feet and 7-20 3pts, while San Antonio shot 5-14 FG and 8-23 FG from these areas as well.
On the other side, the Clippers offense is playing very well. Del Negro's decision of pushing up the pace is working well, as the Clippers are not only #1 in the league in fast break points per game with 19.7 ppg, as they are also quite effective by being #6 in PPP (points per possession). Note that Atlanta adopted the same style this season and they are #2 in fast break points with 18.0 ppg and #4 in PPP! Just like the Clippers, Atlanta is a bad transition defensive team by allowing 1.26 PPP (#24)! That's one of the reasons why I like the over in here, as a lot of easy points will be scored today.
But the Clippers have been great on offense in other areas as well. Chris Paul is dominating on the pick and rolls, with the Clippers being #2 in the league in this area, while they are also hitting well from the outside by being in the top 10 in 10-15 feet, 16-23 feet and 3pts shooting! Both benches have depth and they are good offensively. Atlanta has some good offensive players in Devin Harris, Anthony Morrow and Louis Williams, while the Clippers have Eric Bledsoe and Jamal Crawford coming off the bench as well.
Atlanta is a very underrated team right now. Nobody talks about them, but the team has already shown that they can be competitive, as they won at Oklahoma City and they were tied in the last minute against Miami. I expect the Hawks to surprise the Clippers today, on a high scoring game, and therefore, I'll be taking both Atlanta and the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503/504 Over 195 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503 Atlanta Hawks (+6,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
Final Score: Atlanta 76 LA Clippers 89
NBA - 507 Cleveland Cavaliers @ 508 Oklahoma City Thunder
Projected Line: 198 points
We took the Under on a Triple Dime Play in Cleveland's last game, as I expected the Cavaliers to have to a good defensive bounce back in that game. The truth is that they had that bounce back during the first quarter, as they held the Suns to 31.6% FG, while forcing eight opponents. The problem is that everything was so easy for them on offense (14-22 63,6% FG) that they ended the 1st quarter with a 37-16 lead. As Cleveland is a young team, they quickly lost their defensive focus and they paid the price for that, as after scoring just 16 points in the 1st quarter, Phoenix scored 33, 27 and 31 points in the remaining quarters!
"It was easy in the first quarter," a grim coach Byron Scott said after the Cavs dropped to 2-4 overall, 1-3 on this six game trip that will continue Sunday at Oklahoma City and Tuesday at Brooklyn. "Our guys defensively were aggressive and focused. From that point on, it just seemed like the more the game went on, the less focused we got, the more mistakes we started to make. That's on both ends of the floor."
Kyrie Irving had no energy in the second half and Cleveland's imploded offensively. They will struggle tonight on offense in Oklahoma City, as the Thunder lost at home against the Cavaliers last season and so, they won't take this game lightly. Oklahoma City isn't a top 5 defensive team in pick and rolls, but they are near the top 10 and while Russell Westbrook will chase Kyrie Irving, Thabo Sefolosha will do the same to Dion Waiters.
I believe Cleveland will be more focused on defense tonight and not by just 12 minutes, like it happened on their last game in Phoenix. Oklahoma City's offense is still quite inconsistent this season and I believe they won't have a huge game tonight. Serge Ibaka had an awesome game against Detroit, but I don't believe he can duplicate the 6-7 FG from 16-23 feet that he shot in that game.
I expect Oklahoma City to put a lot of problems to Cleveland's offense tonight, while the Cavs will also show good effort on defense, therefore I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507/508 Under 203 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Final Score: Cleveland 91 Oklahoma City 106