Phoenix +2.5 at Brooklyn
Pick: Brooklyn -2.5
Yes, the Brooklyn Nets are off an ugly loss to Charlotte, 115-91, but let’s not lose sight here. The Nets have been playing pretty decent basketball.
"We've been beaten a couple of times….Sometimes you get beat in close games, sometimes you get beat in blowouts. It would be a theme if we turn around and lose seven or eight in a row. If that's the theme then we can talk about it." a somewhat Lionel Hollins said afterwards (vs. Charlotte)
If there's any positive to getting blown out, it's that you can give your key players some extra rest before the next game. No Net played over 27 minutes so everyone should be rested and ready to give a better effort tonight.
Since the all-star break they are 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS, more importantly they are beating market expectations vs. Western Conferences opponents, 5-1 ATS (i.e., Golden State, Houston Dallas, Denver, LA Lakers). Moreover, the long-term trend is very favorable. The Nets are 5-3 vs. Pacific Division opponents entering tonight’s game, including a 3-0 mark at home (wins over GSW, LAC and SAC). The Nets have won seven consecutive home games vs. Pacific Division opponents, with their last loss coming on 11/27/13 to the Lakers.
Table 1: Brooklyn last 7 games
Last 7 | Season
|
Results
|
Date
|
VS
|
Score
|
Line
|
ATS Mar
|
O/U
|
BK FG
|
Opp FG
|
Reb
|
|
|
03/04/15
|
CHAR
|
L 91 - 115
|
L -5.5
|
-29.5
|
O 194.5
|
35/88
|
42/85
|
38-49
|
|
|
03/02/15
|
GS
|
W 110 - 108
|
W 5.5
|
7.5
|
O 209
|
44/89
|
42/90
|
38-50
|
|
|
02/28/15
|
@DAL
|
W 104 - 94
|
W 8
|
18.0
|
U 201
|
40/77
|
35/82
|
48-37
|
|
|
02/27/15
|
@HOU
|
L 98 - 102
|
W 8
|
4.0
|
U 208.5
|
38/85
|
39/84
|
44-41
|
|
|
02/25/15
|
@NO
|
L 96 - 102
|
L -2.5
|
-8.5
|
O 193.5
|
39/92
|
38/74
|
37-43
|
|
|
02/23/15
|
@DEN
|
W 110 - 82
|
W -2.5
|
25.5
|
U 205.5
|
43/92
|
31/94
|
57-49
|
|
|
02/20/15
|
@LAL
|
W 114 - 105
|
W -3
|
6.0
|
O 194.5
|
42/89
|
41/89
|
46-46
|
|
|
Nets head coach Lionel Hollins commented on this team’s performance and changes after the all-star recently:
“It’s everything (offering his theory on why his team has flexed some offensive muscle since the All-Star break)…. It’s the way we’re playing. We’re also getting points in the paint. The court’s open, we’re getting penetration, we’re getting post-up….It’s kind of style as well, and the pace is a little bit quicker, but our turnovers are down and our rebounds are up, our point spread is up. I think our point spread is about seven-something since the All-Star break…..rebounding is better, our turnovers are down, our points in the paint are better, our points per game is better, our shooting percentage is better, the opponent shooting percentage is worse, their 3-point shooting percentage is worse, because we’re able to keep the ball out of the paint more,” Hollins said.
With Kevin Garnett out of the picture, it would appear that leadership roles are becoming more wide-spread
“We’re all doing it…. Nobody is going to be as vocal as KG was. But, you don’t always need a vocal leader like that. I’m not saying it’s a bad thing. Just saying, if you got enough guys leading by example and speaking up, when you need it, it fills a void,” Deron Williams said
Hollins agreed.
“The whole team has stepped up…I think they’re doing it as a unit, which is the way you would like to see it. I see a lot of guys step up.” the coach said.
Now compare and contrast that with what’s happening with the Phoenix Suns. After a blowout loss in Miami on last Monday, Jeff Hornacek the team’s head coach, sounded off on the team’s toughness:
“We have to find out who on this team is going to be tough,” Suns coach Jeff Hornacek said. “In terms of going after balls, we are soft going after everything. Teams just take the ball out of our hands. Maybe they grab your arm but you have to be tougher than that. I don’t know what it is but, when teams get physical, we look like a high school team. We have to get tougher and we have to find tougher guys who are going to battle. I get tired of watching us not go after balls. There is nothing worse to me than being soft and not going after a ball…..In the second half, we showed some fight. We waited three quarters of getting pushed in the back before we decided to do anything about it.”
Don’t let that 105-100 win at Orlando last Wednesday re-assure you that things with Phoenix are ok (because they are not). Let’s look into that Orlando box score just a little:
Table 2: Phoenix at Orlando Box score
Phoenix at Orlando
Final
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
T
|
Odds
|
Bet Final
|
PHO
|
22
|
21
|
34
|
28
|
105
|
-4.5
|
Cover: +0.5
|
ORL
|
25
|
27
|
17
|
31
|
100
|
202
|
Over: 205
|
-
Phoenix only outplayed Orlando in the 3rd quarter, outside of that one quarter Phoenix was -12 in three quarters of basketball.
-
Orlando was +18 in points in the paint (54 to 36)
-
Orlando was +8 in rebounds (42 to 34)
-
Orlando was more successful from the field (47.1% vs. 46.8%)
-
Phoenix went to the free-throw line 27 times, connecting on 23 free throws.
Put together, Orlando had one bad quarter of play and just took bad fouls. Aside from that, Phoenix was entirely outplayed. Now let’s look at the other Phoenix games since the All-star:
Table 3: Phoenix last 8 games
Last 8| Season
|
Results
|
Date
|
VS
|
Score
|
Line
|
ATS Mar
|
O/U
|
PHO FG
|
Opp FG
|
Reb
|
|
|
03/04/15
|
@ORL
|
W 105 - 100
|
W -4.5
|
0.5
|
O 202
|
37/79
|
41/87
|
34-42
|
|
|
03/02/15
|
@MIA
|
L 98 - 115
|
L 1.5
|
-15.5
|
O 206
|
33/78
|
43/82
|
43-45
|
|
|
02/28/15
|
SA
|
L 74 - 101
|
L -2
|
-29.0
|
U 207
|
25/84
|
41/92
|
42-56
|
|
|
02/26/15
|
OKC
|
W 117 - 113 (OT)
|
W 5
|
9.0
|
O 216.5
|
48/97
|
39/101
|
52-50
|
|
|
02/25/15
|
@DEN
|
W 110 - 96
|
W -6
|
8.0
|
U 214
|
39/91
|
31/81
|
65-40
|
|
|
02/23/15
|
BOS
|
L 110 - 115
|
L -8
|
-13.0
|
O 211.5
|
44/97
|
39/89
|
50-42
|
|
|
02/21/15
|
@CHI
|
L 107 - 112
|
W 8
|
3.0
|
O 204.5
|
47/88
|
43/89
|
36-47
|
|
|
02/20/15
|
@MIN
|
L 109 - 111
|
L 1.5
|
-0.5
|
O 207
|
40/89
|
40/86
|
48-51
|
|
|
-
Orlando win: see comments above
-
Oklahoma City win: No Kevin Durant, and once again, Phoenix only had one good quarter, the 1st. In the other 3, there were outscored +10.
-
Denver win: Denver was simply not playing under former Head Coach Brian Shaw
-
In 3 of their 4 ATS loss, the Suns failed to meet market expectations by 57 points.
The Suns won the first meeting back in November 112-104, but we need to discount that victory a little here. The Suns are looking pretty different these days. They traded their big 2014 free agent acquisition Isaiah Thomas at the deadline and brought back Brandon Knight. Also, Goran Dragic forced his way out of town and is now in Miami.
In that game Brooklyn put up 63 first half points marking the most points the Nets have scored in any first half this season. The Nets led Phoenix by as many as 19 points before a second half Suns rally sealed the game’s fate. The Nets shot 70.6% from the field in the first half, which marked the best FG % the Nets have shot in a half this season. It was also just the second time since 2003 that the Nets have shot 70.0% or better from the field in a first half (the Nets shot 73.0% in the first half vs. Cleveland on 4/3/13).
In the last five games the Nets and Suns have played in New Jersey/Brooklyn, the games have been decided by an average of 14.6 ppg, with four of the five games decided by double digits (Nets are 2-3 in those games). In the last five games the Nets and Suns have played in Phoenix, the games have been decided by an average of 5.6 ppg, with all five of those games decided by single digits (Nets are 3-2 in those games).
Tonight’s price of -2.5 also brings in another long-term favorable trend on the Nets; the Nets success in close games. The Nets improved to 7-1 this season in games decided by three or fewer points with their 110-108 win over GSW on 3/2. The Nets were 8-3 in such games last season. Since the start of the 2013-14 season, the Nets have the best winning % (79.8%) in the NBA in games decided by three or fewer points. In 2014-15, the Nets are tied for the best winning % in games decided by three or fewer points (min. three games decided by three or fewer points). BKN and CHI are 7-1 (.875 winning %).
March is becoming a special time for the Nets in Brooklyn. They were 9-0 at home last year. And now they have started a 2015 run, even beating the Warriors. At this price I believe we are getting some great value on Brooklyn.
Give Brooklyn -2.5.