For the past week and a half, I have been laughably bad. I've been terrible on basketball all season and I want to know why. So I'm going to post my thought process and maybe you guys can help me figure out what I've been doing wrong.
Suns -2.5 catches my eye. I feel like the Suns are the better team as they are a team rising in the West while the Pistons are 1-5 in their last 6 games and just let the Magic beat them by 14 in Auburn Hills. I'd be comfortable with laying 2.5 points in this one.
Then I start with the trends. These favor Phoenix in this one. The most noticeable one would be the fact that Detroit has lost ATS 11 straight times at home, by a margin of 7.41 ppg. The Suns are 64-36-4 ATS as a road favorite after a road game going back to 2004. While it was a completely different team in 2004, the Suns are 12-0 SU and 10-1 ATS in this situation just going back to the 2011 season.
How do these teams match up? I feel like Phoenix has a big backcourt edge and Detroit would have the frontcourt edge. However, I feel like Phoenix's edge is bigger. Markeiff Morris and Alex Len are playing pretty good ball right now and I feel like they can handle their own if it comes down to it. As far as the Pistons backcourt, I see Kentavious Caldwell-Pope who is averaging .95 points per shot ranking him dead last among all shooting guards. I feel like this will be a shootout and I don't believe Detroit can hang. Detroit ranks last in FG% allowed when they are at home giving up 47.2%. They just gave up 51.2% to the Magic last game. The Suns have won 22 straight games when they shoot 50% or better.
Both of these teams have had the same amount of rest. Phoenix is on a road trip, but because of the trend I gave earlier, I don't think this is a bad spot for them. When I look at injuries, I have no concerns. In fact, Suns get a small boost because P.J. Tucker is coming back off of suspension. So if anything, I give PHO the advantage there.
I really feel like Phoenix will take care of Detroit tonight, so when the score ends up being 108-90 Detroit, I'm going to be asking what I did wrong. So what are the flaws in my betting logic? What angles do I miss? What factors have I failed to take into account?
Thanks in Advance!