edwardshowers said:
I also had a question about happened with the Goodfella play here:
/pregamepros/picks/archive.aspx?id=169043
GF notes in the writeup that this was a game where a bunch of the Spurs guys got ruled out. As far as I can tell, the timeline was something like (all times Pacific):
12:30pm: Pinnacle takes game off the board
12:31pm: Pinnacle back up moves to -5 -123
12:32pm: Pinnacle back OTB
12:33pm: Pinnacle to -8
12:34pm: CRIS to -7
12:34pm: CRIS to -8
12:37pm: Goodfella puts play into system at -5
This happened before the system switched over, so I'm not sure which book he actually referenced, but I cannot imagine -5 would be considered 'widely available' in this scenario when it was three full points worse than Pinnacle and CRIS?
edwardshowers said:
How about this Goodfella MLB play:
/pregamepros/picks/archive.aspx?id=161929
Timeline:
7/27
12:00pm: Atlanta is -160 at Sportsbook.ag, -153 at Pinnacle
12:38pm: Overnight pitching change announced for San Diego (J. Lane for I. Kennedy)
12:38pm: Game is taken OTB at Sportsbook.ag and Pinnacle (and everywhere else)
7/28
6:58am: Pinnacle re-opens, with new pitchers, at Atlanta -183/+168
7:00am: Pinnacle moves to -185/+170
7:05am: Goodfella releases Atlanta -160, citing Sportsbook.ag
8:20am: Sportsbook.ag re-opens, with new pitchers, at -220/+185
edwardshowers said:
Claim: Systematic use of “out-of-date or nonexistent betting line”
Here we have an "MLB Dominator 3*" which, once again, is using a line that is literally 19 hours stale, from before a pitching change was announced.
/pregamepros/picks/archive.aspx?id=161019
7/1
11:30am: Game is listed at BAL -140 at Greek/BOL, with N. Tepesch the listed pitcher for TEX
12:17pm: Overnight Pitching Change, M. Mikolas replaces N. Tepesch
Game is OTB at Pin/CRIS/Greek/BOL for the rest of the day
7/2
7:06am: CRIS re-opens at BAL -170
7:08am: BOL re-opens at BAL -165 (The Greek and Pinnacle both still OTB)
7:10am: Goodfella puts a 3* play into the system at BAL -140.
This is the *exact same thing* that Goodfella did in the situation I quoted above. These are both not real lines, and he released both of these plays within five minutes of Pin/CRIS posting a new line, significantly higher than the old line with opponent's previous pitcher.
[/quote]
I see that the odds used on these plays (among others) have been changed, although these results were not affected. Doesn't this seem like an incremental solution to a larger problem (with the accuracy of the pick archive in general, and with Goodfella's lines in particular)? I only had time to look at the line history for a very small sampling of plays, so there are inevitably many more issues similar to these. Thanks.