Point Blank – May 25, 2017
The Celtics will bring energy, but what about defense?…On the aftermath of an unusual day at Chase Field…
It looks like unless something unexpected happens in Boston this evening it will be “game on” for Cavs/Warriors in the markets before Thursday comes to an end, and there is already some Golden State -7.5 and 225 floating around out there for Game #1 next Thursday. But while the Celtics will be hard-pressed to send the series back to Ohio for another game, the pointspread is another matter entirely. There is work to do in this one.
CLEVELAND/BOSTON – I have no concerns about the Celtics playing hard, but even without Isaiah Thomas the defense is troubling
There has been a pattern of teams down 0-3 and facing a home elimination game to come up empty in the playoffs over the past decade, and there is a logic to that. Down 0-3 professionals pretty much know the score, and having been at the grind since training camp started back in October, often prefer to begin their vacation, rather than win a game that only means having to travel again to play the superior team on the road.
I bring that example up for this game because Boston comes close to fitting the theoretical model – the Celtics knowing that the serious would be almost impossible to win, and success tonight means having to extend back to Cleveland. But I believe this group will play hard because Brad Stevens has cautioned all season long that they were a work in progress, and attempting to build something, cautioning against the expectations that usually come with being a #1 seed. This is a valuable opportunity in that process, and also with an added bullet point – they were beaten so horrifically in Game #1/#2 on this court that atoning for those embarrassments to the home fans may become a genuine factor (from Avery Bradley – “We owe our fans a better performance, and we know that.”)
So will I bite off a piece of a quality team with a very good coach taking +10 at home (10.5 can still be found in Nevada this morning)? Yes, so pencil #508 Boston onto the ticket. But in terms of volume it is only pencil, not pen, because watching the game flow when the Cavaliers have the ball may be painful.
Item: About that Boston Defense
One of the notions brought up in making a Game #4 handicap here on Tuesday was how difficult it was to sort through Sunday’s Celtics win because I literally did not see a moment of it, relying on the play-by-play charts and various statistical breakdowns, along with post-game analysis from various media sources, and folks that regularly contribute to this forum. Eventually the key was that in the first game played without Isaiah Thomas the pace was only a 92.6, a full possession slower than any team in the NBA played this season, and that was enough to get over the hump for a Tuesday Under ticket.
But now there is the opportunity to use the two games played in Cleveland off of each other in terms of getting a better understanding of Sunday, and this is where it gets a bit scary – was the Boston defense really any better on Sunday night or was it: 1. The Cavaliers settling for far too many 3-point attempts after having an early run of success (they knocked down 14-22 in building a 66-51 halftime lead); and 2. Was LeBron James really under the weather (from Richard Jefferson - "I know he won't talk about it, so I'll give my big guy a shot. Deron Williams missed shootaround this morning, because he had like a little bug—just really lethargic, had no energy—and I think that's what 'Bron had"), which explained why he was so passive (only 13 FG attempts and six rebounds in 45:03, with as many turnovers as assists)?
In terms of the Boston defense having shored up the interior, Tuesday brought a resounding no, and the answer came from an unlikely source in that particular regard – Kyrie Irving. This becomes an important lesson in sports handicapping in terms of not accepting things at first glance, because had I not seen that game either, and only read that Irving exploded for 42 points in 41:27, I would have assumed it was a display of shot-making. It wasn’t. At a time in which the series had a genuine chance to turn, the Cavaliers trailing by 10 in the second quarter and James heading to the bench with his fourth foul, it was the smallest player in the Cleveland starting lineup that reminded the others of those Boston defensive weaknesses in the paint.
James left the game with 6:46 left in the first half, the Celtics leading 43-33. Just 18:46 later, at the end of the third quarter, it was 89-80 Cleveland, 56 points having been scored in that span. That pace is the equivalent of a team scoring 143 points for a full game. Let’s take a look at the key behind how it happened, from the official play-by-play charts -
4:43 (2) Irving 2’ Driving Layup
4:08 (2) Irving Miss 1’ Driving Layup
2:09 (2) Irving 1’ Driving Layup
10:39 (3) Irving 2’ Driving Layup
4:48 (3) Irving 1’ Driving Layup
2:34 (3) Irving 1’ Driving Layup
1:49 (3) Irving 1’ Running Layup
1:30 (3) Irving Alley Oop Layup
0:34 (3) Irving 1’ Driving Layup
Irving got to the basket nine times in that stretch, making eight of the shot attempts. Now let’s look at the Cleveland team aspect of those last two games –
Paint FG Pts 3-Pt
Game #3 12-19 24 39
Game #4 29-40 58 22
The question from Sunday was whether the Cavaliers were prevented from doing what had been working in the first two games, the Boston defense being better without Thomas, or if they voluntarily went away from it. The perspective is a little different now – as noted here in an early-series analysis, James was taking the ball to the basket as though the Boston defenders weren’t even there, and this was more of the same, though Irving taking the first lead. How concerted was that focus? In the second half Cleveland had 23 shots in the paint, making 18, while only offering up 10 3-pointers. As for LeBron, he took as many two-point shots in Tuesday’s fourth quarter (9), as he did across 45:03 of Sunday evening.
Hence the problem tonight in terms of setting the stake amount – I believe Boston will bring a strong effort, but the Celtics rim protection is so lacking that I cannot reach too deeply into the pocket. There is another alternative, of course, which would be Boston Team Total Over, which would rely on the offense into a still questionable Cleveland defense, but there is a value problem with that. Both Game #3 and Game #4 played to the same 92.6 pace, which shows the likely flow for a non-Thomas game (for perspective, the slowest in the regular season was Utah at 93.6), perhaps even a tick slower now on this court. So the best pure value comes from taking the +10.
Item: Following up with the Arizona bullpen (and while we’re at it, how in the hell do you grade Jose Quintana’s Wednesday)
There was already going to be some interesting charting coming out of Chase Field yesterday, Troy Lovullo turning it into a patchwork affair in which his bullpen would handle the entire load, and it played out well because the Arizona offense put enough runs on the board for an 8-6 win. Now comes the followup, as the Diamondbacks head to Milwaukee with fatigue ratings across that bullpen, Randall Delgado unavailable this evening, and Jorge De La Rosa, J.J. Hoover and Fernando Rodney all having not only pitched back-to-back games, but also adding a plane ride to the mix.
It is a particular issue because Robbie Ray’s control (4.9 BB/9) will continue to be problematic in terms of him working deeply into games. Ray has only finished the seventh inning once all season, a bit of a “gimmee” in which he had a 5-0 lead vs. the Padres in Petco before throwing his first pitch (and it was 7-0 in the second). Across six starts he has only churned through 53 frames, an almost identical pace to the 174.1 in 32 outings for 2016. Ray does have a market following because of the sizzle of his strikeouts, back-to-back seasons of topping 11.0 K/9, but isn’t well-rounded enough to turn that stuff into quality run prevention yet.
Those pro-Ray market elements are out there again this morning, money to both Arizona and Under, and it has opened up opportunity, with 9 dropping to 8.5 in Milwaukee, a key number to open up, so call it #960 Brewers/Diamondbacks Over (8:10 Eastern). Ryan Braun will be back in the Milwaukee lineup after getting Wednesday off, and there just isn’t much to like from either Zach Davies (both ERA and FIP rate him a run worse than league average), or an unimposing Brewers bullpen.
The flip side coming out of Wednesday’s game in Phoenix is trying to grade Quintana. His command was good, 53 of 76 pitches in the strike zone, with seven strikeouts and no walks (he did hit a batter), his second-best K% of the season, and his best BB%. A 10.5 SWS% was Quintana’s third best of 2017. Yet he got tagged for eight runs in just 4.1 innings, a single-game 16.61 ERA, because of the nine runners that reached base, only one didn’t score.
To show the difficulty of piecing a game like that together, look at the range across the various measurements –
ERA 16.61
FIP 3.50
xFIP 1.68
SIERA 2.15
How is that for a jumble?
In terms of the overall bottom line this game will carry a lot of weight in the early season, dropping Quintana to 2-6/4.82, and that may open some opportunity if the markets downgrade him too far in the immediate future.
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