Point Blank – May 17, 2017
On Cavs/Celtics and Rest vs. Rhythm…On the challenge of pricing Ervin Santana…The M-E-T-S are still a M-E-S-S
One of the running themes across this NBA campaign was that it brought more totally useless game results than any professional sport season in memory, but fittingly that did not end in the playoffs – now there is the task of deciding if there is anything at all from Spurs/Warriors Game #2 that belongs in the data-base. There just isn’t much there that matters going forward, assuming the returns of Leonard and Iguodala for Saturday, which means Game #3 brings some unique handicapping aspects, which I will get to here tomorrow.
For now it is time to delve into another unique setting, a most unusual opener in the Eastern Conference Finals tonight that brings a major disparity in recent playing time for the teams. The markets have already made their expected statement, pushing the Cavaliers from -3 to -4, but did they get it right?
CLEVELAND/BOSTON #1 – So where does this fall on the Rest vs. Rhythm meter?
The general set-up here is one that we come across often in this endeavor – unusual settings provide major challenges in making good power ratings, but they also offer opportunity because the rest of the marketplace has to go through the same exercise.
One of the notions shared late in the Monday thread was that in discussions with a veteran oddsmaker there was back and forth about just how much needed to be shaded towards the Cavaliers because of the public perception of “Fresh vs. Tired”. He felt that the genuine power rating was in the range of Cleveland -1.5 or -2, and used a second-out of -3 given the setting. That is where most sports books opened late Monday night, but by mid-day on Tuesday -4 had become the going rate. As many expected, the markets were ready to go to the Cavaliers right from the start given the perception of that setting, and even after adjusting for that they wrote Cleveland tickets.
So why was the discussion so interesting? Because this time the assumptions behind the setting have some twists. Will Cleveland be physically fresh? Absolutely, the Cavaliers not having played since May 7. But might there also be a case that the layoff was a bit too long, to the point of creating a little rust, especially given that it was the second time they have been off for at least a week since the playoffs began? And this marks the third time since early April that LeBron James and Kyrie Irving have gone more than a week without playing, a game Kevin Love at least being on the court for a late-season loss at Miami that prevented it from being three cycles for him as well.
Here is how Irving laid it out earlier in the week - "We're not necessarily shooting the ball, we're just running through plays, some guys get a little bit antsy and mad and they want to go to the basket and finish plays. Just get everything firing again because you miss the contact, you miss getting hit and being able to be there for your teammate and get hype and go in transition. Just the little nuances that make this game so beautiful and competitive and you love it. When you're not playing it, as of right now, you try to do anything to keep you sharp."
Is it a given that the Cavaliers come out and play hard? Yes. But is it a given that they play well? That is a tougher question to answer.
The flip side is also unique this time. For a team go come off of a grueling seven-game playoff series, and only have one day to prepare for the next round, has been a disaster in the past. It is so difficult to re-energize the bodies, and there is also the lack of preparation time that means so very much – after a long stretch of focusing in on one particular opponent, shifting gears in the game plans is not easy. But is it a bit different with Boston this time?
As noted here a few times during the Wizards/Celtics series there was the unusual flow of having Games #4, #5 and #7 all coming with multiple days off, so consider this lay-out – Boston has only left home once since May 8, and this will be the fifth game in 13 days, fourth in 10, and second in five. That is not nearly as dire as I have seen in the past for these settings.
Do the Celtics call for a reduction in their rating off of the Washington series? Yes, there will be some residual fatigue, and there is also the difficulty of shifting those game plan gears, although that is negated a bit by having played the Cavaliers twice on this court since the All Star break, which brings some familiarity. Much as the Cleveland time off may not be quite as valuable as the markets are perceiving, the negatives for Boston may also not be to the usual degree.
My own adjustments, while admittedly tenuous, have this game in a no-man’s-land for now, one of those Lay -2/Take +6 settings, and the Total is similar. It means there will likely be nothing coming out of pocket pre-tipoff, but the early stages may be fascinating in terms of setting up In-Running opportunities.
Item: I have no clue how to grade Ervin Santana right now
This won’t be a new topic, since Santana’s strong opening to the 2017 has been a topic here before, but it is worth bringing up again because he is now past the 50 innings mark, and the numbers are simply remarkable. When the Twins right-hander takes the mound vs. the Rockies tonight he sports a 6-1/1.50 bottom line that has him in the running to start the All-Star game, and be in the Cy Young hunt.
But there is a problem, and the problem is that Santana turned 34 in December, and really isn’t doing anything all that new with the baseball. Let’s start the conundrum by looking at his run allowance as it has exactly played out, contrasted by three of the better pitching metrics out there -
ERA FIP xFIP SIERA
2015 4.00 4.17 4.42 4.43
2016 3.38 3.81 4.21 4.29
2017 1.50 4.17 4.49 4.58
Note not just the gap, but also the consistency across the other numbers, and the fact that in all three of the non-ERA categories Santana is actually tracked as pitching a bit worse than in 2016, when he was 7-11/3.38. He is sitting on a career-high 10.4 BB%, the second worst K-BB% of his career, and his lowest SWS% since 2012.
What Santana has been able to do is play pinball with contact, the ball continually being hit to the right places, and while there is absolutely a skill element as part of that, the ability to induce weak contact, he has taken it out of what would usually be considered the parameters of baseball. That is Part I, and to see how extreme it has been take a look, of the 79 pitchers that have worked at least 40 IP so far -
2017 BABIP
MLB .291
1. Santana .128
2. Straily .181
3. Keuchel .215
4. Lynn .217
5. Hellickson .218
Let’s also add something important to the equation – the Twins defense has been playing well, with a BABIP allowed of .269, so that does factor in. Still, you can see how much of an outlier Santana has been. Let’s look at recent full-season leaders in the category –
2012 Weaver .241
2013 Fernandez .240
2014 Cueto .238
2015 Estrada .216
2016 Estrada .234
You can get some insight for Marco Estrada a take here about a year ago, when he was labelled the “Poor Man’s Catfish Hunter”, but the key takeaway for now is that this category has a basement - there is only so low the numbers can hold up over time because of such things as weak ground balls that find a hole, and broken-bat bloops that drop into the outfield for hits. Even throwing very good pitches can only reduce this so far.
And for Part II another key category, the rate of base-runners that Santana has stranded -
2017 LOB%
MLB 73.0
1. Santana 98.4
2. Gonzalez 91.4
3. Nolasco 90.7
4. Vargas 88.7
5. Keuchel 88.2
In five of his seven starts he has stranded every runner that has reached.
I would like to place a good rating on Santana because one of the things that often happens with the psychology of pitchers is that success breeds success; guys on a roll build their confidence levels to where they hit the edges of the strike zone with far more regularity. The problem with Santana is that he has stretched the outcome pendulums to a point I have never seen before to open a season, and it is difficult to determine just how much impact this is having.
In the Sights, Wednesday MLB…
On Friday one of the sub-headlines at the top of the page was “The M-E-T-S are a M-E-S-S”, and nothing much has changed – they are 0-5 on this road trip, getting out-scored by 17 runs, and that is with the opposition having had 15 fewer outs to work with at the plate. In the first two games of this series the Diamondbacks have out-hit them 20-9, despite not batting in the 9th in either game, and at a reasonable price point it will be #952 Arizona (3:40 Eastern) in play, this one holding value up to -130. There is nothing wrong with making your ticket on the First Half should you find a lower price point, but since full game offers lower vig I won’t mind the prospect of a late Fernando Rodney sweat, since the current New York bullpen is nothing special.
Matt Harvey has been written about so many times here this season that I don’t want to be redundant, but the gist is that while his physical health has brought the return of good readings from his fastball on the radar guns, his command of all other pitches is dismal, with both BB/9 and BB% nearly double his career rate. And as noted prior to bucking him at Milwaukee, word is getting out – the Brewers rarely offered at anything other than fastballs, which lead to a single game O-Swing% of 22.6. At this stage ERA calls Harvey 5.63, FIP 6.48, xFIP 4.96 and SIERA 5.14, but that is not the way the markets are pricing him. Harvey’s K% being at a career low also doesn’t help with the defense behind him, especially on the left side of the infield.
I am seeing better things from Patrick Corbin than his 3-4/4.17 shows, one particularly bad outing at Coors Field, which is not a disgrace, having a lot of early-season impact on the bottom line. Corbin lost his command in 2016, but his BB% is back to where it should be, and you can see the confidence returning to his slider -
Fastball Slider
2016 63.5% 26.5%
2017 57.8% 32.4%
Corbin has delivered four straight solid games from this mound, three wins and a no-decision, the latter being in a game in which he did not allow a run over six innings. With the Mets lacking right-handed punch in the heart of their order, he can continue that success.
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