Point Blank – May 12, 2017

Will the Celtics repeat their Wall on Wall…Pops passed a great challenge, but now faces an even greater one…The M-E-T-S are more like a M-E-S-S right now

The number of clunkers thrown at us in the second round of this year’s NBA playoffs may rival any cycle I will see the remainder of my lifetime, and it was over extra early in Houston last night, the gassed-out Rockets from the end of Game #5 being pretty the same group that took the floor for the Game #6 tipoff. There wasn’t much in the tank for them physically, and even less from the standpoint of basketball consciousness.

Perhaps the most remarkable of the no-show aspects was James Harden – over his final 42:26 of court time in the series, including those key end-game moments in San Antonio on Tuesday, he was 2-15 from the field with eight turnovers. But to fully measure Harden's performance would need to go beyond those numbers because the leadership that Houston needed from him was simply not there. Meanwhile kudos to Gregg Popovich for having his team calm and prepared, a clean game plan without Kawhi Leonard that was the fruit of a team that plays with a sense of purpose just about every time they take the court, regardless of the circumstances. That discipline and focus was in full evidence, but now the Spurs go from having overcome a major challenge to having to take on an even greater one, which I will get to in a moment.

With multiple topics on the way the jukebox is plugged in, as will be the case on Friday’s throughout the summer, focusing on some extended live performances that will help you to glide through. Since there is a running theme of “The Wall” this week, something James Harden seemed to run into, something the Wizards will be relying on, and something that the Celtics put up to thwart on Wednesday, let’s go to Roger Waters, live from Madison Square Garden in 2012 -

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BOSTON/WASHINGTON – Will the Celtics repeat their “Wall” on Wall?

The Celtics played some awfully good basketball to break Game #5 open early vs. the Wizards on Wednesday, and as is almost always the case when momentum appears to turn there is a deep dive to see if it may have been the result of some tactical maneuvers by the coaches. That particularly matters in a series in which I believe one coach has an edge over the other, which I give to Brad Stevens over Scott Brooks. But for as good as Boston was in the early stages of the game, there is a legit question as to whether much of that, is sustainable.

After struggling to guard when it was starters vs. starters through the first four games, which was a feature point here on Wednesday, the Celtics defense was much better, coming up with eight blocked shots and seven steals, as part of Washington shooting just 38.5 percent. That can certainly give the appearance that they figured something out, and in truth they did a solid job of preventing John Wall from finishing at the rim.

Wall was only 5-14 on his two-point shot attempts, with just four assists across his 32:18 of court time. But we have to be a little careful with some of this – half of the eight blocked shots came from the Boston reserves, as did all seven of the steals. While the quick glance would give credit to the defense of the starters, outside of three blocked shots by Al Horford, the other four players combined for one block and did not have a steal. Was the defense really that much better, or were the Wizards just missing their shots?

Regardless of which direction those misses are credited, it led to a rather shocking 15-0 edge for the Celtics in fast break points in the first quarter. That is a remarkable count given that Boston only had six opportunities, but all of those shots were made, including a trio of 3-point attempts. That helped to break it open early, but it was not something that held up – for the full game fast break points were only 19-14. There was some good basketball there, but also some hot dice.

And also before crediting too much of this to Boston adjustments in the starter vs. starter settings, I have to go one more time to the chart of infamy that is the Washington bench cast, that group having another truly rough go of it on Wednesday when we look at the Net PP100 counts –

                          Min            Net
Bogdanovic      22:42         -24.1
Oubre              19:59         -11.3
Jennings          14:55         -47.2
Mahimni           13:56         -46.0

Zoiks, that is awful stuff. But I don’t expect that group to be showcased much tonight, and it is part of what leads to where I believe is some opportunity.

The Wizards defended the Celtics well at home In Games #3/#4, holding them to an average of 95.5 points. With the starting cast not playing heavy minutes on Wednesday, because they never got back into the hunt after the early outburst, the legs should be there for a good defensive showing tonight. My takeaway from Game #5 was not so much that Boston adjusted well, but that some things simply fell into place at a most opportune rate, including that 16-33 from 3-point range that is unlikely to be repeated. That will get me into play with #711 Boston Team Total Under (8:00 Eastern), which is available at 105.5 in the early Friday trading, and holds value at 105 or better.

SAN ANTONIO/GOLDEN STATE – For as much as I love Pops this one may not last long (“Green with envy” is a key storyline)

I have always believed that being a fan at times was a big part of being able to navigate the pointspread waters over the decades – if one can bring an appreciation of sport to the desk each morning it does make a difference in the long run, creating some added energies. And it is no secret to regular readers here that Gregg Popovich is my favorite coach in professional sports, and in truth one of my favorite people regardless of occupation (read his non-basketball musings carefully and you will see why – he is about as straight of a shooter as there is, especially because he consistently takes careful aim before firing).

Having said that, for as brilliantly as he has navigated the X’s and O’s through the years, this is a damn tough matchup for him. The markets have already reflected this in making the Warriors -10.5 for Sunday’s Game #1, and the series price likely to settle out in the -1200 range. So will I look to back Pops and his tactical acumen to keep his team in the game? Not for the opener.

I am going to take an early stand with what I believe will be a key story line in this series – the Spurs are going to have a difficult time generating a steady offensive flow. Some of this is the loss of Tony Parker, which puts more pressure and game minutes on the shoulders of Patty Mills, and that is problematic – Mills will have to spend so much time focusing on his defense of Steph Curry that it really is an overload. But the bigger issue may be Kawhi Leonard, because Leonard is going to run into the toughest matchup cycle he could face, a combination of Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala.

In this instance it isn’t just a matter of Leonard scoring, but also of the offense needing to run through him in order to create for others. Green will make that difficult at the start of games, with Iguodala getting the call for some stretches as well, and while Green’s mercurial ego often  gets him into trouble, consider what this spotlight may do in a positive way for him – in back-to-back seasons he has been edged out by Leonard as the NBA Defensive POY, and now this series brings a showcase opportunity for him to bring that chip on his shoulder, literally being “Green with envy”.

I will be waiting for the board to settle for Game #1, and if I find something that brings opportunity I will paste it back into this spot, while also updating in the comments thread as well.

Item: About those Miami defensive ratings

Back on Tuesday I began detailing the defensive numbers from the early stages of the 2017 MLB season, and it was a bit of a surprise to see the Marlins sitting atop the list. Be careful with those numbers this weekend – the infield is a mess.

Over the past week Aeiny Hechavarria, Martin Prado and Miguel Rojas have all gone on the DL, while J.T. Riddle was not able to play on Wednesday because of an injured finger. It forced Don Mattingly to move Dee Gordon over to shortstop, where he had not played since 2013, and to give a start at 2B to journeyman Steve Lombardozzi, who had not played in the Major Leagues since 2015, and that for only 10 at-bats with the Pirates. How awkward was it? Lombardozzi had to be pulled from a minor league game being played in Tacoma on Tuesday evening, and rushed to the airport to get a red-eye to Miami.

This is something to follow carefully through the weekend, and in particular tonight – Jose Urena does not miss many bats (11.6 K% and 7.7 SWS%), and will need some good glove work behind him if he is going to be successful, that early 1-0/1.69 opening to his season not a proper measurement of his skills. There will be some close scrutiny given to this matchup over the course of the day, although finding a way to back the slumping Braves in any form will not be easy.

Coming up on Saturday Morning

Charting the Miami defense closely will be regular poster “pappahoops” and his crew at MatchupCenter, and there will be a special bonus from them beginning this weekend. With my summer cycle having me far off of the communications grid on Saturdays, pappahoops will be checking in those mornings with a “Matchup Center Game of the Day”, showcasing where some of Baseball’s edges can be found across the many meaningful categories that are out there. The games will be posted in the running thread when they are ready to go, along with the key details that make each matchup worthy of a deeper dive.

Those guys are doing some outstanding work, not just in bringing better stats to the table, but in making them easier to work with, and they are also open to suggestion, so if you want to go in and kick the tires around it can be an asset in the long-term development.

In the Sights, Friday MLB…

For as bad as things are for Mattingly in Miami, he has nothing on Terry Collins, who takes the field in Milwaukee this weekend with a DL that includes Noah Syndergaard, Yoenis Cespedes, Jeurys Familia, Lucas Duda, David Wright, Travis D’Arnaud and Steve Matz, while Asdrubal Cabrera (wrist) and Michael Conforto (hamstring) are question marks. And with some serious doubts about Matt Harvey’s ability to pitch well tonight it will be #906 Milwaukee (8:10 Eastern) going into pocket, the Brewers available as low as -102 available in the early trading, and value holding up to -110.

Harvey has been a discussion point here multiple times already this season because of the challenge of pricing him, and the markets are still showing respect for his past, despite a 2-2/5.14 in which the ERA does not lie – FIP calling it 5.76. The details are rather simple – while Harvey is back at full health in terms of the way the radar guns are reading his fastball, he is a long way from having the command that made him so special in his early career, BB% counts of 4.5 in 2013 and 4.9 in 2015 (he missed 2014). Harvey has not been close to getting his breaking pitches where he wants them, and that means sitting on career-worsts in some key categories by significant margins -

                 Career       2017
K%             24.3          13.5
BB%           5.9             8.8
SWS%       10.1            7.4
O-Swing%  33.5          28.0

Several of these are connected. Harvey is missing so badly with his breaking pitches that batters are able to recognize them far more easily than in the past, and are swinging less often at anything out of the strike zone.

Over time Harvey may pull things back together but I do not believe this is the ideal setting for that – it will be 10 days since he last started, and in back-to-back games vs. a mediocre Atlanta offense prior to that he had more than twice as many walks (8) as strikeouts (3). Layoffs tend to not help pitchers struggling with their command, and given that this layoff came because of self-inflicted wounds to his own psyche, it will be a challenge for Harvey to pitch well. Even if he does have better stuff his stamina will be an issue, bringing the Mets bullpen into play sans Familia.

There isn’t anything special about Matt Garza at this stage, over 1,600 MLB innings under his belt, but he brings some craft to the mound and his stuff is good enough to trust in this price range. There has been plenty of life showing through his first three starts, a SWS% rate that would be his best since 2013, and a BB% that is a career-best, and while his long-term prognosis is nothing special the markets are fully aware of that, which enables this ticket.

In the Sights, Saturday MLB…

Neither the pitching nor the defense will be anything special in Miami this evening, which makes it difficult for either offense to get shut down. So with merelygetting both the Braves and Marlins to four runs each guaranteeing a win, it will be #952 Miami/Atlanta Over (7:10 Eastern) going into pocket, with 8.5 available across the board in the early trading. One team has to be held to three or less for this ticket to lose, and even if that happens we can still cash if the other side has a break-out.

The problems with the Marlins infield were noted as one of the lead topics for this edition, and that will not help the struggling Edinson Volquez, working for the first time in 12 days after an issue with his right thumb. There isn’t much to like from his arsenal, with the consistency of ERA at 4.71, FIP 4.88, xFIP 4.57 and SIERA 4.97 accurately reflecting his downward career arc – for the second season in a row all categories are more than a half run above league average, and his BB% and GB% are both at career lows. Even if Volquez brings his best stuff he is not likely to eat many innings, and a bullpen geared towards getting contact outs (tied for #25 in K%) does not get aided by the subpar infield defense behind them.

The reputation of Julio Teheran helps to keep this price point down, but at this stage there may be some cause for concern. His average fastball is down nearly a full mph from 2016, and Teheran is off of his career norms across the board -

                K%   BB% GB% SWS%
Career    20.8   6.7    37.1   10.4
2017       16.9  11.2   31.7    9.2

The Marlins read him extremely well in 2016, 13 runs on 22 hits, with four home runs, over 17.1 IP, and much like Volquez even if Teheran brings his best stuff he is not likely to work deep into the game, averaging just 5.2 IPS to this stage. That brings a subpar Braves bullpen into play, and the opportunity for a crooked inning in the latter stages as well. Both offenses generated double-figure hits last night, including four different players hitting a HR, and there should be plenty of opportunities to generate runs in this one.

In the Sights, Sunday NBA…

With the game-day markets lowering Golden State to -9.5, with the Total heading to 211.5, the fist good 212 has hit the board, that opens up a door that I believe works here - #501 San Antonio Team Total Under (3:30 Eastern), with 100.5 having become available.

This series has a chance to become more of a grinder than the market anticipation, and Pops will certainly prefer that, doing what he can to get a slow tempo so that his defense can get back and get set, rather than having the Warriors attack in the open court. But I believe the Spurs have an issue on offense, as noted in the lead the fact that Kawhi Leonard has to run up against a defense that is as well set to slow him down as any in the league, and it isn’t just a matter of his points production, but the fact that without Tony Parker so much of the offense has to run through him.

Golden State’s defense has been dynamic through the first two rounds, not only leading all playoff teams by a wide margin in allowing 96.9 PP100 (no one else lower than 101.5), but also rating #1 in DREB% at 82.1 as well. I think we are going to see a lot of San Antonio possessions going deep into the shot clock and ending with low-percentage shots, and the Warriors doing a good job of cleaning the boards off of the misses.

In the Sights, Sunday MLB…

I don’t believe either Jeremy Hellickson or Gio Gonzalez are anywhere near what their base bottom lines for 2017 show, and Game #1 in Washingotn brings an awkward setting for the bullpens, a night-to-day affair after 10 relievers combined to throw 153 pitches on Saturday. So that will get me to #904 Washington/Philadelphia Over (1:35 Eastern), with 8.5 commonly available in the early trading.

The Hellickson story has been told here before in cashing a Cubs Run Line ticket against him, but Gonzalez comes close to matching him in terms of 2017 good fortunate – he has managed a 3-1/2.64 despite being at a career-low rate in K% and GB%, and his second-worst in BB% and SWS%. So let’s set some perspective by looking at what a big chunk of the marketplace sees, compared to the realities of some key pitching metrics –

                  W/L   ERA   FIP   xFIP  SIERA
Hellickson  4-1    3.49  5.33   5.42   5.30
Gonzalez   3-1    2.64  4.98   4.77   4.84

Those are significant gaps. The Nationals read Hellickson well in Philadelphia earlier in the week, forcing him out to 21.0 PPI, and a quick second look won’t help a guy with good control, but simply limited stuff (K% sitting at a dangerously low 10.7, dead last of the 123 pitchers that have worked at least 30 innings).

There is naturally some concern over lineups for a setting like this one, but since there is a gap between games, and both teams are off tomorrow, we may see the key cogs play in both. I am going to go ahead and get locked in at 8.5, since there appears to be some Over money in the marketplace.

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