Point Blank – May 9, 2017
It’s time to talk 2017 MLB Defense…Did Rockets/Spurs Game #4 cloud how much Nene means…
It won’t be long on Tuesday before the first complaint comes in from someone across the counter, with an extended run of betting patterns in the NBA playoffs holding up. Despite the fact that the oddsmakers are genuinely adjusting, a couple of scenarios continue to ring the bell for bettors, home teams down 2-0 to cash in the First Half of game #3, and teams ahead 3-0 to not only get the close-out in Game #4, but to exceed the projected margin.
Of course those that earn their keep on the other side of the counter are supposed to relish sequences like these in the long run – when bettors believe there is a magic formula it keeps them coming to the windows, even when the setting is as muddled as Rockets/Spurs tonight. Have there been any real foundations laid in a 2-2 series in which none of the games have been competitive at crunch time, and the home court advantage has registered as meaningless? And now today I will throw an extra wild card into the mix…
HOUSTON/SAN ANTONIO – Might Nene matter more than most folks think
The Rockets drubbed the Spurs on Sunday with Nene playing only 1:43 before suffering a torn left abductor, which will keep him out for the remainder of the playoffs. The fact that the final count was 125-104 would not lead many to believe his impact is all that big of a deal, merely being a reserve cog in the Houston rotation. But what if he matters more than that, especially in this matchup? There may be a lot going on here.
When was the last time a team adjusted their starting lineup because a reserve was injured? It isn’t often, but that is what we are likely to see from Mike D’Antoni tonight, starting Eric Gordon instead of Ryan Anderson. And this tells of where the problem is – unless D’Antoni wants to drop down to Montrezl Harrell, who only has 18 minutes of court time in the playoffs, the entire #4/#5 rotation comes down to Clint Capela and Ryan Anderson. Yes, Trevor Ariza can play the #4 a bit, and that may be his starting role tonight, but the best Houston defense comes when Ariza can guard Kawhi Leonard. Now it may be Patrick Beverley opening against Leonard, and while Beverley is a terrific defender for his position, guarding Leonard isn’t his position.
The loss of a key rotation piece is a big part of this, but there is also the fact that Nene had been playing extremely well in the post-season. If we look at production per 36 minutes, which comes close to the time that most starters put in, it has been 20.1 points and 9.4 rebounds, converting at 70.6 percent of his FG attempts. Yes, most of those are layups or dunks out of pick-and-rolls, but it is his ability to set quality picks that is such a big part of this offense.
Let’s go to Gregg Popovich on that front - “In the OKC series people who are just fans and not really basketball buffs might not notice (Nene) as much as someone else. But his aggressiveness, his scoring, his defense and just his activity were really important in that series.”
Let’s talk about defense, because that is where the problem lies. Not only is Anderson not suited to guard the paint area, there is the natural notion that the Rockets now don’t have many fouls to give away either. How good has Nene been defensively? This is far from being a perfect measurement, which I will get to in a moment, but let’s look at the PP100 defensive counts when the key Rockets have been on the floor, the first table for the full playoffs, and the second for this series -
Min PP100 Min PP100
Nene 161 97.4 51 94.3
Harden 327 103.2 140 104.5
Beverley 251 103.3 113 102.1
Williams 225 105.4 83 108.2
Ariza 335 106.1 144 108.2
Anderson 274 107.4 131 108.6
Gordon 284 108.4 118 112.3
Capela 218 108.9 107 107.3
Some of this must be taken with a grain of salt because Nene got many of his minutes vs. the opposing reserves, and in particular the Oklahoma City series is a bit cloudy. As noted here a few times, the Thunder lost much of their offensive efficiency off the bench because they couldn’t keep Enes Kanter on the court, there being no way to hide him defensively against the Rockets schemes. That is why I also isolated the San Antonio series. What about all games during the regular season?
2017 "D" PP100
Nene 102.8
Gordon 103.0
Anderson 105.8
Capela 105.9
Beverley 106.0
Ariza 107.1
Harden 107.3
Williams 108.5
Apply some of the same rotation caveats, but still allow for an appreciation. Nene brought a lot of energy, which led to effective individual defense, but also spelled Capela/Anderson, so that they could go harder when they were on the floor.
While the Totals have been as difficult to gauge as the sides based on the uneven game flows, three of the first four in the series have played Over despite a complete lack of scramble points – there have only been 16 points scored over the final minute of the four games combined. I believe this flow is set up well for the offenses, a smaller and quicker Houston starting lineup being both harder for the Spurs to guard, but also easier to score against, and the lack of Houston fouls to give inside meaning some matador moments for that defense. And if the game does stay close there may finally be some late-scrambling, which both teams are adept at. That will lead to some #708 San Antonio/Houston Over (8:00 Eastern) going to pocket at 214 or less, and a welcome sign in the early Tuesday trading is that one prominent shop is showing a 213.5.
Item: It is time to talk MLB Defense, today the Good
Defense is not only so very important to MLB outcomes, but in particular it matters to the handicapper – it is one of those areas in which the marketplace still does not place a great emphasis, largely because the numbers are so difficult to work with. It is a struggle to glean much at all from the traditional box score each day, and while there are a variety of various “Zone” ratings that are getting out there they are difficult to trust – they rely on human judgment, and it is in seeing the disagreements across the various sources that those charts are kept largely in The Drawer for now (though they are intriguing enough to take the occasional peek).
There is one non-sexy measurement that we can trust, PADE, or Park Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. There isn’t anything dynamic about it, but that is where the trust comes from. It simply measures how well each defense is turning batted balls into outs, and factors the ratio based on what the historical norms are for each ballpark. So let’s take a look at the best of 2017 so far, and also their 2016 rating -
1. MARLINS (#15)
2. REDS (#5)
3. WHITE SOX (#14)
4. PHILLIES (#23)
5. RAYS (#9)
There are some major surprises in play, especially given the significant improvements for a few of them. Some of that can be explained through baseball logic a bit – each of these five teams finished at least 15 games out contention in their divisions in 2016, and team defense is one category that can slump in the latter stages of a losing campaign. Batters and pitchers still go for their measurable stats, but defenders can be a half step slow without statistical punishment.
But even this statistic needs to be taken with a grain of salt; it is easier to get to fly balls and turn them into outs than ground balls. The Marlins, Phillies and White Sox carry an * because they are also #5, #2 and #6 respectively in having fielded the fewest ground balls. Let’s compare to 2016, and you can see where some of these “improvements” have come from -
2016 2017
MARLINS 41.8 45.0
WHITE SOX 42.9 44.1
PHILLIES 41.1 43.1
Meanwhile Cincinnati and Tampa Bay were good in 2016, and remain there. I am going to get into more detail on Defense throughout the week, including taking a look at those teams at the bottom and why they are there, but for now it takes us to Chase Field tonight to get specific…
In the Sights, Tuesday MLB…
The roof will be open for a pleasant evening in Phoenix tonight, something that the hitters love this late into May, and something that may not work out well for Justin Verlander and the Tigers. I’ll make it #980 Arizona Team Total Over (9:40 Eastern), with the “4” that was the target available in the early trading.
Let’s go to defense first, and the ugly #25 that Detroit rates in PADE. There is a real problem there, because the Tigers are #1 in MLB for fewest ground-balls faced, just 36.5 percent, and compare that to the 41.1 of the Phillies at #2 and you can see how wide the gap is. That should favor the Detroit numbers in the outs-generated category, which makes you wonder just how bad this defense may really be. As for Verlander, what is alarming is that there is a major decline in his stuff before we even get to the defense at all.
Verlander staged a solid comeback season in 2016, a 16-9/3.04 over 227.2 IP, and while that was great to see from someone at the age of 33, it also marked the 9th time in 10 seasons he had topped 200 innings. Now he is nowhere near that performance level, and the drops are significant when we go to those early-season rate stats that I like to focus on –
K% BB% GB% SWS%
2016 28.1 6.3 33.7 12.0
2017 22.6 11.0 27.2 7.6
The latter three categories are all at career worsts, as is an O-Swing% of 27.9, which is down from the 34.3 of 2016. Verlander carries quite a legacy in the marketplace, which helps us to buy at this price point, but the 2017 version is simply not what there used to be. And behind him there are the continuing headaches for Brad Ausmus to patch through the late innings. Francisco Rodriguez may be close to done after 933 career regular-season appearances, and the overall Detroit bullpen is dead last in both ERA and FIP.
The Diamondbacks have only been held under four runs four times through their first 17 home games; the combination of Verlander, a bad bullpen and a bad defense don’t make it likely to happen tonight.
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