Point Blank – May 3, 2017
Are the Spurs big guys simply too old…Were the Raptors a step slow in Game #1 because of physical energy, or is it mental in this building…On why the starting pitchers might get beat-down in Beantown…
The drama that was missing from the NBA’s second round games on Monday got turned around in a major way last night, Washington/Boston putting on quite a show, Isaiah Thomas having a closing stretch for the ages (from the start of the fourth quarter on he scored 29 points, vs. 30 from all Wizards combined), while Utah/Golden State took the pointspread climax to the final shot, a missed triple by James McAdoo that literally had tens of millions ($$$) waiting in the balance. If you had Celtics/Jazz you weren’t right, but increased your net worth; if you had Wizards/Warriors you weren’t wrong, but will have anguish doing the figures this morning.
Time now to head to the Wednesday board, and the flow throughout the playoffs will remain “The Game Inside the Game”, looking at one key aspect of each setting that will go a long way towards deciding the scoreboard outcome.
TORONTO/CLEVELAND – Were the Raptors a step slow in Game #1 because of physical energy, or mental energy?
This was the season in which I believed that Toronto could offer a legitimate challenge to Cleveland, the Cavaliers having vulnerabilities in terms of defense and rebounding, and in particular depth in the front-court, and the Raptors bringing enough bodies to attack aggressively. So what happened in Game #1? It was Cleveland that was the aggressor, and Toronto that appeared to be timid.
That raises a genuine question heading to Wednesday. In one aspect losing a series opener does not have to be a major psychological block to the Raptors – they have now dropped 11 in a row. But is there an issue when they step on this court, where the four playoff games the last two seasons have been dropped by an average count of 114-89? It is one thing for a team to bring better physical energy, with the Cavs having an edge in freshness in the opener, but will the Toronto mental energy be where it needs to?
Let’s start with Dwane Casey on that front - “We didn’t play with the force we needed to. They were well-rested, flying around - almost like a half a step quicker than we were all night…We just gotta play that next gear, whoever is on the floor.” And Serge Ibaka – “It’s not like we gave everything we had. We didn’t. It’s different when you know you’ve given everything and you still lose. They played their best basketball and we didn’t give nothing, actually.”
There are tactical things that Toronto needs to do, but for the handicapper to anticipate adaptations to the game plan means relying on the foundation of the team bringing the fight. One of the keys on the court is attacking the double-teams that the Cleveland defense used on DeMar DeRozan. In setting up the series on Monday the focus was on the Cavalier back-court, which faces a major challenge in this series because the one-on-one defensive matchups are difficult. So credit Tyronn Lue for throwing the first punch, right from the get-go, and double-teaming DeRozan almost every time he touched the ball on the offensive end.
The outcome? You can look at it a lot of different ways, but first and foremost was a rather shocking -32 in the 34:56 DeRozan was on the floor. DeRozan made 7-16 shots and 5-5 FTs, but note that during the regular season he averaged 21.2 field goal attempts, and 8.9 free throw tries, for every 36:00 of court time. Not only did the Cleveland defense curtail those rates significantly, but DeRozan had twice as many turnovers (four) as assists (two).
This worked in two different ways for the Cavaliers – not only did it make DeRozan and the Toronto offense less efficient in general; it also made them less aggressive. Far too many times when DeRozan passed out of a double-team it led to a long jump shot, instead of the other Raptors attacking the basket. Back to Casey – “There are some different things we can do, and we have to do. Know where the rotations are coming from and where the double-teams are coming from. It wasn’t a surprise, but we can do a better job of attacking to get better looks.”
The Raptors can do a better job, but will they? Can they turn the game flow around and become the aggressors, which Indiana was able to do for long stretches of the opening series vs. Cleveland, with only limited personnel? It is not easy to project the mindset going in because of the lack of success in this building, but it will be something I will look for in terms of In-Running – should the balance of power in terms of aggression show a change in the early stages, there may be some Toronto going to pocket.
HOUSTON/SAN ANTONIO – What does Pops do with his front-court (Aldridge/Lee/Gasol are over 100 years old)
While waiting until after tipoff before being involved in tonight’s opener, the nightcap may go to pocket much earlier in the day, with #733 Houston (9:35 Eastern) in play again. The +5.5 that is out there is good enough, but given the nature of the marketplace, and the reputation of Gregg Popovich and the Spurs, there may be the opportunity to grab a +6.
This one was a challenge for some oddsmakers I had communicated with, both in terms of their internal power ratings off of Game #1, and also public perception. Yet there will end up literally being no adjustment at all from what I already thought was a bad line for the opener. I respect Pops as much as any coach in any sport, and while his ability to make adjustments is exemplary, he faces headaches here that are not easy to solve.
One of the keys to San Antonio being able to adjust is having a savvy veteran corps. The logic behind that needs no explanation. But in this instance, the savvy that Pau Gasol brings from being 36 years old, David Lee 34 and LaMarcus Aldridge 31, with Aldridge a bit older than that in terms of physical reality because of health issues, may be a net minus because their physical limitations can be exploited in this matchup.
A key to stopping Houston is that a defense has to have the flexibility of their #4 and #5 positions getting out to guard the perimeter, since the Rockets will repeatedly put them in pick-and-roll situations. The Spurs elderly trio up front simply had a horrific time, whether it be rotating to the shooters, or staying with the screener if he broke to the basket, the latter being how Clint Capela had such an efficient offensive game (20 points in 24:42 on 8-10 shooting, most of them dunks or layups).
How bad was it for those three key cogs in terms of defense on Monday? Let’s compare it to their regular season, when the Spurs were the best defensive team in the NBA, using PP100 as the guide –
Game #1 Season
Aldridge 122.3 103.0
Gasol 117.9 104.0
Lee 116.4 99.2
Where are the answers? It could be more playing time for Dewayne Dedmon, but his lack of experience does not help all that much vs. the Houston schemes. It could be using Kawhi Leonard at the #4 spot and going with a smaller lineup, but one of the defensive keys for San Antonio is to occasionally use Leonard on James Harden, and that is tougher to do from the #4.
There are no easy answers here. The Spurs will play better tonight, and bring a sense of professionalism to the proceedings. They may play well enough to win the game. But I believe -5.5 is the wrong price point for the balance of power and the matchups between these teams, so it will be another Houston ticket.
About Last Night, and Matt Harvey
One of the Tuesday lead topics here was how to grade Harvey’s poor showing vs. Atlanta on Thursday, when he got moved up a day and was unprepared, having had a lifting session in the weight room the previous day. While that game still may not offer much statistical value because of the uniqueness, it certainly fit in with the way he performed against those some Braves last night. In facing 51 batters over the two games Harvey only came up with three strikeouts, while issuing eight walks and hitting one batter.
It now sets a truly ugly perspective in terms of career arc, with 2014 missing from the tables because of injury –
K/9 BB/9 SWS%
2013 9.6 1.6 12.6
2015 8.9 1.8 11.6
2016 7.4 2.4 10.1
2017 5.1 3.3 7.4
Yet here is the odd takeaway from last night – Harvey’s average fast-ball was 95.0, his single-game high for the season. But the rest of the repertoire was not there. His take - "Today was the best I've felt in a long time. The ball was coming out better than it had for a few years. I just have to locate. It's fine tuning that. The velocity was there the whole time and I was able to repeat things the right way."
And from Terry Collins - "What made him so good was great stuff and great command. Right now, the stuff is coming back, but the command isn't there. It's real inconsistent. He's throwing hard, but he has to get the off-speed stuff over. Otherwise, hitters are going to sit on the fastball. He's getting too much of the plate."
Grading Harvey is a challenge. There are a lot of guys that can throw 95 mph without having command of much else, and they don’t last long. So while the reading on the radar guns may indicate that he is healthy, until the other pitches show that they can work he will remain vulnerable.
Kevin Gausman knows how that feels, which takes us to Fenway tonight…
In the Sights, Wednesday MLB…
I believe we can approach Orioles/Red Sox from two different directions in calling for runs this evening, so that will put #968 Boston/Baltimore Over (7:05 Eastern) into pocket, with “9” available at even money in the early Wednesday trading, and value good to -110. In this instance two offenses that I believe will improve off of their early-season showing get looks at starters they have already seen plenty of, and I expect some good swings.
Gausman still carries a positive reputation after being the #4 pick in the 2012 draft, but he has yet to live up to it, a career 24-33/4.19 over 483 innings. But the 2017 Gausman is a far cry from even those numbers, so let’s go to the key early-season Rate Stats again -
K% BB% GB% SWS%
Career 21.2 7.0 43.3 10.2
2016 23.0 6.2 44.1 10.8
2017 13.6 11.6 42.9 9.1
There has been a consistency with ground balls but dominance and command are way off, far fewer pitches reaching the strike zone, and when they do they are being hit. The Red Sox roughed him up at Camden Yards last Sunday, five runs over 5.1 IP that included three homers, and Gausman got tagged for two more HRs at Yankee Stadium in the follow-up.
Meanwhile the Drew Pomeranz story has been written here often, a low-velocity left-hander that can be vulnerable in Fenway, and here is how the numbers break down since the start of the 2016 season –
ERA HR/9
Fenway 5.68 2.4
Others 2.74 0.7
Pomeranz also gets an advantage over hitters in many games from his unique style, and he did handcuff the Orioles here on April 11 in his season debut. But on the second look at Camden the hitters waited him out to a 19.1 PPI, and now the third crack at that knuckle-curve in three weeks should mean a greater comfort level in the batters box.
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