Point Blank – April 25, 2017
Seriously, what if Joe Johnson just can’t be stopped (on things I never thought I would be saying in the 2017 Playoffs)…It may only be a mild storm, with no real Thunder, in Houston...You might want to root for Dylan Covey, but the realities may be harsh...
Golden State became the second team to advance past the first round of the 2017 NBA playoffs on Monday, doing it in a fashion that does not call for all that much mystery the rest of the way – the gap between the Warriors and the rest of the league on my power ratings is the highest at this time of the proceedings than any for at least the past decade (I did not take the time to look back any further).
But while the winner may be a foregone conclusion, the plot twists among the rest will continue to bring some opportunities for the shrewd handicapper. The Raptors just got a blowout win in which the DeRozan/Lowry duo only scored 28.8 percent of the team points. And as we head to the Tuesday board, sorting through more of those emerging twists becomes a significant part of the process. Let’s get to work.
MEMPHIS/SAN ANTONIO – About that #1/Point Guard & #5/Center thing again (Kawhi Leonard owns this series and it is still only 2-2)…
It is difficult to imagine a player having a much better series than Kawhi Leonard has for the Spurs in this matchup. Of course, that is what should be happening when one of the league’s best players is going against an opponent that doesn’t have anyone that can even come close to guarding him – with Tony Allen out, David Fizdale simply has no options.
Leonard has sliced the Memphis defense up to the tune of 130 points in 147 minutes (that would be 42.4 per-48), on 40-69 form the field and 40-40 at the FT line, for an almost absurd 75.1 True Shooting Percentage. Yet with all of that this is a only 2-2 series, and it does make the switch back to San Antonio for Game #5 a fascinating setting, because for all of the wiles that Gregg Popovich possesses, this is not easy X’s and O’s basketball for San Antonio.
As noted in the Weekend Edition leading up to Game #4, while the sport has indeed evolved through the years to a more perimeter-oriented flow, once upon a time if a team simply won at the #1 and the #5 positions, they were a big leg up towards winning games. It really wasn’t until the Michael Jordan Bulls that any team was able to consistently defy the formula, but you can do that with Hall of Fame players at the #2 and #3 positions. San Antonio only has a potential HOF guy at one of them.
The Spurs won’t win the #5 vs. Marc Gasol, although Pops can rotate various players and keep the matchup close now that Dwayne Dedmon will be available again. But there just isn’t much he can draw up at the #1, and while that point has been made here previously, the numbers are worth showcasing again –
Min FG Pts Ast TO
CONLEY 143 33-68 96 31 8
PARKER/MILLS 189 33-77 86 16 11
San Antonio will play hard and smart tonight, the Spurs bringing the kind of veteran cast that I would often look to back in this kind of setting, especially with the game-planning mastery of Popovich. But they are giving up so much ground at one of the key positions on the court that the Game #5 challenge may be far greater than the way the markets are pricing it.
OKLAHOMA CITY/HOUSTON – How ugly might this get if it breaks bad
The notion of an “opportunity missed” is a major one in sports. It can impact the psyche of the team that did not maximize what was in their grasp, while for the handicapper there is the awareness of the realities of various pendulums that govern sporting outcomes. And the instinct is telling me that this could get ugly tonight.
The Thunder are a fragile bunch mentally, and subject to letting go of the rope, as evidenced by 20 regular-season losses in double figures, and then the 118-87 demise on this court in the series opener. But their mental state has been given some excellent rides to work with – even in Game #1 they were only down by three at halftime, and over the next three outings they carried leads of six, seven and four to intermission. That made it easier for them to stay focused, and in this series they can compete when the pace horse. But if they fall behind…
Let’s go to the pendulums of those Game #3/#4 flows, when they had halftime leads at home and could have squared the series. But consider what else they had going for them –
FG 3-pt
HOU 75-168 44.6% 21-70 30.0%
OKC 88-168 52.4% 16-35 45.7%
That is a rather significant advantage in shooting efficiency. And what were the Thunder able to make out of all that? How about a -2 over 96 basketball minutes. That is where those subtle realities of sport come into play – OKC had about as good of a shooting ride over two games as the weaker team could be expected to amass over that length of time, yet weaknesses in other parts of their game turned it into a net scoreboard disadvantage.
That brings the natural question – what happens if the Rockets simply come out and knock down their 3-point shots? And note that was not how Game #1 broke open, with Houston only 10-33 beyond the arc in that one. And the favorite will be bringing the proper mindset, set up well by James Harden - "We got to get off to a good start. The whole series, our second halves have been pretty good, especially defensively. We got to get off to a really good start, offensively, get a good rhythm and carry that for four quarters. Just come out with some urgency. We're at home and it's a close-out game. If that's not enough, I don't know what to tell."
I see the potential for this to break open, Oklahoma City carrying what is defined here often as a “snap factor”, yet even if the Thunder play well it could get away late anyway – they got the money here in Game #2 but did trail by 10 with a little over a minute remaining before a wild late scramble. That puts #706 Houston (8:00 Eastern) into pocket tonight, with -7.5 an easy find in the Tuesday morning trading, and hints that we might even see -7 on the way.
UTAH/LA CLIPPERS – Can the Clippers do anything about Joe Johnson (on things I never expected to be saying during the 2017 playoffs)
Joe Johnson scored 10 points, grabbed seven rebounds and dished four assists in 33 minutes off the bench in his NBA debut. What is significant about that is the debut came on October 30, 2001, Paul Pierce the only other player on the floor that night that is still on an NBA roster. Now Johnson has become a pivotal player in this series, and it is anything but a brief return to glory for a player who was considered past-prime many years ago – there is a real matchup issue in play. The Clippers do not have a natural defensive counter for him at crunch time, nor do they have a way to attack Johnson’s faded defensive skills at the other end of the court.
It is Johnson’s end-game execution that is so important here because it is difficult to envision anything other than close affairs between these two. And what do close games come down to? Which team can execute the best when it matters most. Quin Snyder has made Johnson the catalyst for his end-game offense, and that leaves Doc Rivers with awkward counters. He wants to keep Luc Mbah a Moute on Gordon Hayward, so the options vs. Johnson simply aren’t good, with Marreese Speights too slow to get out on the perimeter to check him, J.J. Redick and Jamal Crawford not big or strong enough, and Wesley Johnson too difficult to have on the floor because of his own offensive limitations. Might the return of Austin Rivers tonight offer an option?
Here is what makes it so difficult. Johnson was always a good one-on-one finisher, possessing a soft touch for a player of his size (6-7/240). But over 47,000 minutes of NBA court time he also added some basketball savvy to the repertoire. Let’s use his words, and those of Chris Paul, to lay that out.
First from Johnson - "I'm just trying to get to a sweet spot. Running pick-and-rolls with guys like Rudy (Gobert), you're not going to get trapped as much because he's going to end up the one catching lobs. I make them kind of get deep inside the paint a lot and make plays for everybody, not just myself." And from Paul, after the Game #4 loss at Salt Lake City - "Joe got going. I don't know how many he hit down that stretch. We got to do better on our defensive rotations. Joe was unbelievable with his pace and how to get to his spots and stuff like that. We just got to make it tougher."
The Jazz have a better end-game than the Clippers right now. Paul has been terrific, but with Blake Griffin out, and Redick having a most difficult time getting loose from the defense of Joe Ingles (only 31 points in 129 minutes, on 10-29 shooting, with as many turnovers as made field goals), there are not many options for the latter stages if it is close. Consider that in the two LAC losses in the series Paul had 52 points, 23 assists and three turnovers, which shows how little has come from the remaining cast.
#707 Utah would rate a look for me at +4, which is unlikely to show, but there may be some opportunity for In-Running should the early game flow be close – the Jazz plus points for the end-game gambit has some appeal.
Baseball Being Baseball
There was some discussion of Dodgers/Giants in yesterday’s thread, and the post-mortem of that one is one of the more interesting endeavors on this Tuesday morning. There were questions about both Matt Cain and Hyun-Jin Ryu leading up to the game, and despite what looked like a 2-1 pitcher’s duel, I am not sure if either hurler has had their concerns answered. Some nights on the West Coast, and in particular at China Basin, that can happen.
Neither Cain’s nor Ryu’s stuff was special. They combined for only six strikeouts over 12 innings of pitching, with Cain’s SWS% down to 4.3, which is Church League Softball. Ryu was a little better at 7.3, but that is also a dangerous neighborhood for a pitcher to live in. But on some cool evenings by the Bay the ball simply doesn’t carry, and Cain walked away with a .118 BABIP, while for Ryu it was .263.
Cain’s season has been a marvel so far, a 2-0/2.42 opening that makes it appear as though a resuscitation is taking place, but FIP charts those some pitches at 4.53, xFIP at 4.95, and SIERA at 4.85. There just isn’t much oomph coming from his stuff, but a pair of home games, and weak road challenges vs. the struggling Padres and Royals offenses, have enabled him to nibble around the strike zone. His outcomes (.212 BABIP and 91.7 LOB%) are unlikely to remain that favorable, which could mean some windows of opportunity being opened up as the season progresses.
In the Sights, Tuesday MLB…
Yes, the Royals have been utterly inept at the plate of late. But I went to the well with Danny Duffy a couple of starts back in this spot on the page, noting a disagreement I apparently have with some folks in the marketplace over his abilities, and now the Tuesday morning drift against him has reached -120, which opens it up for #975 Kansas City (8:05 Eastern) to get in play. Despite how awful the Royals hitters have been, the defense remains solid and this pitching mismatch goes far beyond the price point.
Duffy went into pocket often in 2016 and was a feature topic here, the gist being that some time in the bullpen sharpened his focus – instead of pacing himself and nibbling, which he had done as a starter, he attacked hitters. When he returned to the starting rotation he found he could do the same without losing stamina, and working entirely from the stretch sharpened his control. It has been a 14-3/3.23 run as a starter since that bullpen stint, and if you want to see how much his game has turned around let’s focus on one key category –
Duffy SWS%
2015 – 8.4
2016 – 12.9
2017 – 15.1
If we chart all pitchers that have thrown at least 200 innings over the past two seasons, only Max Scherzer and Noah Syndergaard have a better rate.
Tonight Duffy should get enough support to win because Dylan Covey simply does not bring MLB-ready stuff to the table. Covey was once a great prospect, being drafted one spot behind Chris Sale in 2010, but he opted for the University of San Diego instead because he had to work through Type 1 Diabetes, and avoided Minor League travel while sorting through the health issues. He went back into the draft in 2013, but instead of being the #14 pick he fell down to #131 with Oakland, and didn’t make it to the AA level until 2016, where he only worked 29.1 innings. The White Sox then made him a Rule 5 Draft pick, the A’s leaving him unprotected, which does put Chicago in a bind – either keep him on the roster, or he gets returned to Oakland. Hence why he is starting.
For as positive of a story as Covey could be, the stuff just hasn’t been there. Through two starts he has the rather ugly tag of both his walks (5) and home runs allowed (3) exceeding his strikeouts (2), with an ominously low 5.7 SWS%. In truth it is a “win” for him to be able to stand on a Major League mound, but a pitcher that has never worked at the AAA level may not have the physical tools, or the experience to work around those limitations, to stay on the mound for long.
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