Point Blank – April 14, 2017
NBA Playoffs – Time for the House Party (yes, many of you know what’s coming on the jukebox today)…Some folks don't seem to like Danny Duffy, but some of us do...
There is almost always a positive shifting in the mood when the NBA Playoffs come around, that tournament elevated higher above the level of the regular-season play than any other sport, so you can imagine what it means this particular spring, after the wretched six months the Association has put us through, a point that I need not belabor here.
With the handicapping juices flowing it is now time to roll up the sleeves again, and the methodology throughout the playoffs will be similar to the format used here often - “The Game Inside the Game”, focusing on one key aspect of each matchup that will play a major part in the scoreboard outcome. To help keep those juices flowing it will be some fun stuff from the jukebox, as the J Geils tribute cycle continues. Today it is one that you likely have heard a lot via television commercials or various plug-ins to sporting events, though you might not have known who originated it – “(Ain’t Nothin’ but a) House Party”. I will also continue the process of doing double-shots to show how the music, and the musicians, have held up over the decades. Today it is back to Winterland in 1977, then capping it with an evening from Danbury, Connecticut in 2011. By those later shows the band was often using “Whammer Jammer” to lead directly into House Party, the great Richard “Magic Dick” Salwiz doing what he does best -
One note before the playoff discourses begin – while I have bemoaned the integrity issues of the NBA stat files all season, I will use the official counts for these discussions, so that there need not be any concerns about internal numbers that would not match up to what you see from other sources. Naturally I will explain some of the problems with them as part of the work-around process. Let’s go in the order of the weekend schedule rotation -
INDIANA/CLEVELAND – How much were the Cavaliers just holding back
You know the drill with this one – a veteran team wins a championship and has almost all the same cast returning, so for them the regular season is just a matter of preparing for the playoff run ahead, the key being keeping the players fresh. And it is really easy to say that about these Cavaliers, except for this -
Post-Break W/L Defense PP100
Cavaliers 12-15 111.1 (#29)
That was too bad to fit the usual narratives. Here is how interesting the defense got – when Golden State went with a patchwork lineup in the fourth quarter on Wednesday it almost allowed the Lakers to get out of the #30 slot in this category, but they remained just below the Cavs at 111.2 (and you thought there was no drama on that final evening).
Yes, these numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt. LeBron James sat out five of the 27 games, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love missed several, and Tristan Thompson was out for a week with that thumb injury. But there is still a potential problem along those lines – in what should have truly been a regular-season of slowly gearing up for the playoffs, James was #10 in the NBA in total minutes played, and #1 in MPG when he did play (37.8, over 74 games).
James regular season minutes
2015 2,493
2016 2,709
2017 2,794
Exacerbating that is the fact that the Cavaliers were competing into mid-June in each of those past two campaigns, which makes this season’s workload far more burdensome than it needed to be. They will play harder and better than we have seen since the break, but in this instance I don’t believe it is as simple as flipping the switch. Cleveland’s ride to the Finals began with 4-0 sweeps in the first round each of the past two seasons; this time the path gets tougher.
MILWAUKEE/TORONTO – The Raptors won 10 playoff games last year without Ibaka/Tucker
It is no secret to readers of these pages how much I like Toronto as a value to win the Eastern Conference, and now that the playoffs are here it isn’t just a value equation anymore, but the fact that I believe that they are genuinely the best team in the East right now.
Here is the gist – the Raptors were good enough to win 10 playoff games last spring, but by the end of that run Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan were gassed, both having played over 2,800 minutes during the regular season. Since there was nothing special about the defense or depth, when the stars wore down the rest of the team simply wasn’t good enough.
Now enter Serge Ibaka and P.J. Tucker, who might not create much sizzle individually, except for the fact that they were key pieces that had been missing from the puzzle of what Toronto needed to take another step. And then add the fact that the Lowry/DeRozan tandem comes in at 791 fewer floor minutes than last season because of injuries and getting some games off, and it is a much different portrait.
How best to measure the Ibaka/Tucker impact? Try this -
Toronto Defense PP100 / Rebounding
2016 Full #11 #7
2017 Pre-Break #16 #18
2017 Post-Break #4 #2
The Raptors were the only team after the All Star break to finish in the Top 5 in both Defense and Rebounding, and when you add the offensive skills of Lowry/DeRozan to that mix, you can see the reasons for high expectations. In terms of the first round, the Bucks were #19 defensively for the full season and #24 in rebounding, and in lacking playoff experience simply don’t match up well to the new-look favorite.
MEMPHIS/SAN ANTONIO – Mike Conley wins the PG matchup, but do the Spurs win all other battles
A major talking point here this season has been the growing weakness of San Antonio at PG, at a time in which that position is at a premium, especially in the West. The best way to phrase it is to go back to what has been said earlier – Tony Parker is past-peak, and Patty Mills has already reached a journeyman’s ceiling. So let’s examine how difficult of a path it is going to be by using Real +/-, and switching James Harden from a #2 to a PG, which is a little more natural –
1. Paul +8.1
2. Curry +6.1
3. Westbrook +6.0
5. Harden +4.8
6. Conley +4.1
Five of the top six come from this conference (Kyle Lowry is the missing #4), and Gregg Popovich has to beat them with –
Mills +1.6
Parker -0.8
which will be a challenge. But the Spurs should still get through the first round because of something else that has been a talking point here – David Fizdale’s tinkering with the Memphis rotation after the All Star break. The Grizzlies had been doing well to that point, perhaps even over-achieving, but the HC wanted more, and by trying to get it ended up with less –
W/L PP100 +/-
Pre-Break 34-24 +1.4
Post-Break 9-15 -3.0
If team chemistry is a problem there are few worse opponents to face than the Spurs. And team chemistry raises its head again in the next series…
UTAH/LA CLIPPERS – The Jazz are mostly healthy now, but is that necessarily a good thing
For Utah to go 51-31 this season may be a sign of something special ahead in the years to come, but does it mean anything for these playoffs? The good news for Quin Snyder is that he has almost everyone healthy now; the bad is that the kind of chemistry needed to win playoff games may not be there.
Let’s look at what the Jazz have been through -
MPG DNP
Hayward 34.5 9
Gobert 33.9 1
Hill 31.5 33
Hood 27.0 23
Ingles 24.0 0
Favors 23.7 32
Johnson 23.6 4
Mack 21.9 27
Exum 18.6 16
Diaw 17.6 9
Lyles 16.3 11
Burks 15.5 40
Obviously there is an issue with these numbers – no coach is going to maintain a 12-player rotation at 15.0 mpg or more, but those minute counts are showing how much various pieces had to fill in for the others. Only 13 times was Snyder able to use his preferred starting lineup (for what it’s worth, Utah was 11-2 in those 13), and there was one game in which Gobert was the only true starter on the court at tipoff.
But does having nearly the full cast available necessarily mean an upgrade now? I’m not ready to proclaim that. The Jazz are facing a Clippers team that has had the core group together about as long as any core in the NBA, and it could well be that chemistry becomes the single biggest factor in this matchup, a test that Utah may not be ready to pass just yet. I will have a Series ticket on #808 LA Clippers at -200 or less, putting up a full position to win a half.
ATLANTA/WASHINGTON – Have the Wizards now crossed over their “Wall”
There was a stretch back in the middle of the season in which the Wizards were playing better than anyone else in the East, with a terrific chemistry between a starting cast that has had several seasons to grow together, and seemingly a good assimilation into the Scott Brooks playbook. But there was a problem as the surge unfolded – while the starters were flowing well, there just wasn’t much behind them. It caught up with them –
Wizards PP100 Defense
Pre-Break 105.0 (#9)
Post-Break 110.7 (#27)
The defense wore down badly as the season progressed, and it is easy to see why -
2017 Season Minutes Played
5. John Wall
18. Bradley Beal
25. Otto Porter
30. Marcin Gortat
They were the only team in the NBA to have four players finish in the top 30. But now there comes a twist. While those numbers might make it appear as though this is a worn-down bunch that may not be capable of reaching back to those earlier heights, consider this -
April Minutes
Beal 330 (#17)
Wall 280 (#78)
Gortat 238 (#128)
Porter 196 (#179)
How much does that change things? A team that needed time off for some key cogs got it, while Bojan Bogdanovic and Brandon Jennings were also brought in to add some depth (though losing Ian Mahimni is of consequence).
What happens if Wall has fresh legs again? A player that would have had some MVP mention if this had not been such an extraordinary campaign on that front could be dominant here – there are 71 point guards of 15.0 mpg or more that are tracked on Real +/- Defense (far from being a perfect metric, but it passes the eye test in general), and Dennis Schroeder rates #66.
PORTLAND/GOLDEN STATE – Are the Warriors better set for a run than last year?
To save time and space here, I don’t believe the Trail Blazers will win a game. The weakest front-court of any playoff team lacks the depth and toughness to compete. But here is something that may well matter for the Warriors going forward that you can file off to the side for now –
Curry/Green/Thompson regular-season minutes
2016: 8,174
2017: 7,758
Not chasing history may turn out to matter with a little extra energy in store for this post-season.
CHICAGO/BOSTON – What happens when the underdog has far more end-game experience
You know the usual drill in the playoffs – many of the games are close, but when it gets to be crunch time it is the experience and the savvy of the favorite in those situations that takes over. Now consider how uniquely different this one is.
Dwyane Wade has won at least one playoff series in eight different seasons. Rajon Rondo, who began to be a positive contributor down the stretch, has been a part of teams that have won eight playoff series. Jimmy Butler already has a couple of series wins under his belt. Contrast this with a Boston team that has yet to win a playoff series with the current roster, and Avery Bradley is the only one that has won a playoff road game in a Celtic uniform, that coming back on May 1 of 2013 at New York (though Boston lost the series).
OK, Wade and Rondo are past-peak, and Brad Stevens will out-chalkboard Fred Hoiberg by a wide margin. But what we will get a chance to see in the opening round is how much moxie Boston will have in terms of stepping to a higher level. The Celtics have a cast of good players, and the kind of depth that can lead to a 53-29 over the course of the regular season, but can they step up to make the big plays under pressure when it matters? Their team composure in that late-season home showdown vs. Cleveland, when the Thompson-less Cavaliers ran them out of the TD Garden 114-91, was alarming. That can be what happens when there isn’t a great player around, or a legacy of winning big games under pressure.
Yes, Isaiah Thomas can be a terrific go-to offense player at the end of a close game. But scroll back up to where it was noted that Atlanta’s Schroeder was #66 of 71 point guards defensively, and then note that Thomas rates #71. He takes, but he also gives.
OKLAHOMA CITY/HOUSTON – It isn’t really Westbrook vs. Harden
The billing for this one is classic – Russell Westbrook vs. James Harden in the duel of explosive MVP candidates. And in truth it would be a classic game of H-O-R-S-E if those two were actually guarding each other, neither bringing anything special to the defensive end (Westbrook can guard people but doesn’t always choose to; I am not sure Harden can guard even when he does try).
Instead what may we see, which can matter in terms of both game totals and player props? Two offensive superstars occasionally having a tough go. Westbrook will rarely be stopped because of his extraordinary physical tools, and Harden brings Hall of Fame thought processes when he has the ball. But what if each has to go up against some of the better defenders in the league at their position?
Harden only shot 34.3 percent in four games against the Thunder this season, and while Westbrook averaged 36.3 points in those games, it required 103 field goal attempts, and he was only able to dish 37 assists vs. 24 turnovers. Here is what can matter, going back to Real +/- Defense (again the qualifier being players of 15 mpg or more) -
HOU - Patrick Beverley, #2 Point Guards
OKC - Victor Oladipo, #3 Shooting Guards
OKC - Andre Roberson, #3 Small Forwards
And Houston can even throw Trevor Ariza at Westbrook every once in a while, to force him to get around a bigger defender.
It will be interesting to watch this unfold. Regular-season games don’t necessarily bring insightful reads because these teams are so unique, keyed by the energy from their catalysts, but in a series format I’ll be watching closely just how much impact these defenders can have. Keep in mind that Harden was #3 and Westbrook #8 in minutes played this season – can there be a wearing down effect on either of them by opponents that can guard them more aggressively than they are accustomed to?
Baseball Being Baseball
Here is what the Dodgers did in the 9th inning vs. the Cubs on Wednesday. Chase Utley walked, Yasiel Puig flied out to right field, and with Utley on first and one out, three consecutive batters struck out – Scott Van Slyke, Andrew Toles and Corey Seager. Yet a run scored.
Why were there four outs? Because on the Toles K, which should have ended the inning, the ball got away from catcher Wilson Contreras, who then needed to throw to first to record the out. Since it was a 3-2 pitch Utley was running on the play, and when Contreras threw the ball down the right field line Utley never stopped, making it all the way around from first.
No individual player gets unfairly penalized or rewarded for the sequence, but the Los Angeles offense gets a team credit for scoring a run in an inning in which they were particularly futile at the plate.
In the Sights, Friday MLB…
Somebody out there in the marketplace doesn’t like Danny Duffy. I do, so with -150 having dropped to as low as -123, it will be #924 Kansas City (8:15 Eastern) in play, with -130 or less the value point. On Saturday Dallas Keuchel and the Astros were played from -160 to as high as -190 over Duffy/Royals, before it trickled back to -180 at first pitch. Now there has been similar movement, and it makes me wonder if there are some folks that have refused to do a buy-in on Duffy.
Here is the gist – Duffy was on the verge of having the label of disappointment attached to him when he began 2016 in the bullpen, a left-hander with good stuff that simply was not able to corral it. What happened when he was reduced to being a reliever? His concentration sharpened, and he got more aggressive in attacking hitters, not having to worry about stamina. After being put back into the starting rotation he kept that mindset, while also continuing to work from the stretch, which improved his command without a loss of velocity, and when the 2016 counting was done it was a 12-3/3.51, with career-best counts in K/9 and BB/9. There was another career-best worth mentioning, especially in the context of where it placed him –
2016 SWS%
1. Scherzer 15.3
2. Syndergaard 14.2
3. Fernandez 14.2
4. Pineda 14.1
5. Duffy 12.9
6. Kluber 12.6
That is good company. And guess what – through two starts in 2017, Duffy has elevated that to 17.1. He is only 28, and may just be coming into his own.
J.C. Ramirez is also only 28, but the career arc is much different – he has been with five organizations already (the Red released him last June, back when they were saddled with bullpen issues, which says something), and is getting his first start after 111 appearances of relief mediocrity, a dubious consistency of ERA reading 5.14 and FIP 5.12. There isn’t anything special about his stuff to believe there is an upside lurking around the corner, with too few strikeouts (6.4 K/9) and too many walks (3.4 BB/9) to suggest he merits a starter’s role. But Garrett Richards can’t go, so Ramirez it will be.
There is always the issue, of course, of a journeyman getting pumped with adrenaline for this kind of opportunity, so the investment will be moderate, but this new low price point calls for involvement.
In the Sights, Sunday MLB…
I believe the markets have opened some opportunity this morning, a move to the Angels now making the Royals available at an underdog return, and that will call for #920 Kansas City (2:15 Eastern), the value point on this one being even money or better.
After missing all of 2105 because of injury the Angels were excited to get Tyler Skaggs back in action LY, and there was the electric cycle of him throwing shutouts in his first two return starts, over a combined 12.1 IP. But that may have largely been the adrenaline of the moment – since then it has been a 2-5/6.23, and that includes a couple of uninspiring starts to begin the 2017 campaign. Skaggs has not been commanding the strike zone (4.4 BB/9), and when contact has been made he is not getting enough of it on the ground (24.2 GB%). So with Skaggs scuffling, and being an unlikely candidate to eat innings, it will bring into play an Angel bullpen that I do not expect big things from this season.
Ian Kennedy is who he is, a guy that will throw strikes and churn innings without much sex appeal, and as 1500 MLB innings approaches his 3.94 ERA/4.09 FIP accurately sum him up. But one of his issues has been the gopher ball, which makes Kaufman Field a good fit, and he worked to a comfy 3.41 from this mound in his debut Royals season. With a slight pitchers breeze in from center today he should be comfortable, and with the Soria/Herrera tandem to close it down late this price point does not properly reflect the relative abilities of the teams or pitchers (there is as high as +107 out there right now).
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