Point Blank – March 30, 2017
SC/Gonzaga – The Game Inside the Game…The Rock and Roll Hall of Fame finally says “Yes” (some Steve Howe to help your day glide along is never a bad thing)…It wasn’t what’s up front that counted in Warriors/Spurs…
Now the focus turns squarely to the NCAA Final Four, where each of the matchups will get “The Game Inside the Game” treatment over the next two days, focusing in on one key component that may go a long way towards defining the ultimate scoreboard outcome. And while I will have some Golden State/San Antonio takeaways from last night it is an intriguing post-mortem session across the NBA. The Warriors may have clarified the Western Conference playoffs the last two evenings, especially with the news that Kevin Durant will be working out again soon, but the East became even more of a muddle, the gaps between the top teams and those fighting for the lower seeds not all that wide (does anyone want to have to play the Bucks right now).
And of course there is one other anticipation out there – it will be Tanaka/Archer, Bumgarner/Greinke and Lester/Martinez as the hookups for Sunday’s MLB openers. We may see some shops offering prices later today or early tomorrow.
To help you across this busy cycle the jukebox will be plugged in each of the next two days, and there is a timely request from a reader that absolutely fits here – Yes will be inducted into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame next Friday, and with the recent focus being on some guitar greats from the era it is most fitting that we go to Steve Howe. It will be a double-shot, the electric Howe today and some acoustic background tomorrow, since those studying up for the MLB openers calls for something a bit more pastoral. Here is some vintage work from Howe way back when, showing the creativity and versatility that would allow for a remarkable range across his career, along with a HOF supporting cast on “Yours is no disgrace” –
Now let’s get to work…
SOUTH CAROLINA/GONZAGA – Do the Bulldogs have a weakness against presses, or was it just a lack of experience
The talking point will not be a new one here, though the particular approach is. It is no secret that defense comes front and center in Saturday’s first semi-final, and how about this for a celebration of that end of the court –
2017 Adjusted Defensive Efficiency
1. Gonzaga
2. South Carolina
They do it through different methods, the Bulldogs relying on size and fundamental soundness in the half-court, and the Gamecocks looking to pressure all over the floor. Hence file these categories away as well –
TO% FTA/FGA
Gonzaga #222 #16
South Carolina #4 #334
But now let’s get to what loyal readers know is on the way. Much has been written here about Gonzaga struggling vs. pressure, which led to a ticket with West Virginia last Thursday (I hope you were able to shop it well), the focus on how uncomfortable the Bulldogs became when defenses were extended by BYU and Northwestern late in the season. And those struggles were indeed there vs. the Mountaineers, Gonzaga only scoring .91 per possession and turning the ball over on 23.4% of all trips. But it was just enough to escape with the win, because of the sturdiness of the Bulldogs defense.
Let’s go back to one of the keys from that analysis, which you can click to here. There wasn’t necessarily a declaration being made that Gonzaga would be bad vs. pressure in terms of the team make-up and tactics, but that the Bulldogs simply weren’t prepared well vs. that kind of defense because they saw so little of it in the West Coast Conference. Now that changes. Could there be a better prep for South Carolina than having faced West Virginia so recently, a game in which just about everything was contested all over the court?
That brings likely the key question to this one – were those recent struggles vs. pressure defenses a genuine team weakness, or more a case of a lack of experience, and has that lack of experience now been turned around? It wasn’t just playing a game against West Virginia, but having extended practice time to prepare for what the Mountaineers do, and now there is ample prep time for the tactics of Frank Martin’s defense.
Here is why this matters so much – the Gamecocks score off of their defense, the offense featuring one gifted player in Sindarious Thornwell, but outside of him a gang that can’t shoot straight -
South Carolina 2017 Offense
Adjusted Eff #103
Effective FG% #299
3-Point% #245
2-Point% #294
First note that the raw shooting stats are not quite that bad – those numbers are not schedule adjusted, as efficiency is, but even when you factor in a #28 schedule they are not pretty. In truth you almost want to adjust 2-point shots down even lower, because of how many freebies they get from layups or dunks after turnovers.
So a key to preventing South Carolina from scoring is to think offense first – take care of the ball, get a shot off, and guarantee as many times as possible that your own defense can get back and get set, in order to force the Gamecocks to make shots. So far in this tourney, the opposition has struggled to do that –
Team TOs TO% SC Steals
Marquette 18 25.0 11
Duke 18 24.3 8
Baylor 16 24.2 7
Florida 16 23.2 4
Needless to say, if a team is forcing turnovers on nearly one-fourth of all opponent’s possessions that is special defense, and it has provided some easy transition opportunities. But what if that count gets reduced…
What happens if Gonzaga keeps the turnover count down? The single biggest problem for the South Carolina offense has been scoring against size, which Gonzaga brings. Thornwell has an NBA toughness to get into the paint and either finish or draw a foul, but the Gamecock front-court doesn’t have a player that is comfortable creating his own shot form an offensive move. Hence they can bog down – the same roster that has been so electric in this tournament had their offensive feet in mud in a dismal 64-53 bow-out vs. Alabama in their SEC tourney opener.
I see some opportunity in this collision, and it will lead to #812 Gonzaga/South Carolina Under (6:05 Eastern). The question becomes one of timing – a full ticket can be filled out at 138.5 this morning, but I have not done that yet. This tournament has had an abundance of Overs, which has naturally led to inclinations to play that way across the marketplace, and with heavy recreational traffic coming on Saturday the highest Total may show on game day, especially here in Las Vegas. But I consider the value point to be 138 or better.
With a big part of the last two weeks focused on coping with pressure defenses, Mark Few and his team may go from being inexperienced to now being rather well-versed against that style of defense. There is the size in the back-court to not be overly harassed by traps, and being able to use 6-9 Jonathan Williams as a release man is an effective tool. The Bulldogs won’t be brilliant vs. the press, but they may be adequate, and adequate is enough to turn this game into a grind.
When Gonzaga does break the press the points won’t come easily – South Carolina remains tenacious in the half-court, and even when the Gamecocks don’t come up with steals their extension of the defense reduces the shot clock. The flip side is that when the SC offense has to run sets there are going to be some truly ugly possessions – the Bulldogs held West Virginia and Xavier to 38-122 from the field last weekend, and in the half-court this defense just doesn’t have a weakness.
Tomorrow it will be time for Oregon/North Carolina, but now time to remember the Alamo, and what happened near there on Wednesday.
Item: Getting to the “point” of Warriors/Spurs
The Western Conference playoffs became far less interesting the past two days, Golden State having some dominating stretches in winning at Houston and San Antonio in succession, while the news also appears to be positive on the Kevin Durant front, the prospect of him possibly being ready for the first round of the playoffs.
My biggest takeaway from Wednesday, when the Warriors turned a 15-0 deficit into a 110-83 ride the remainder of the game, had to do with the other side of the equation. There was a take here yesterday about how much Pau Gasol’s stepping up as the playoffs neared could mean, and for Gasol it was another game of high production – 18 points, eight rebounds and five assists over 25:43 of court time. Put him out there with Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge, and it is a front-court that can get you into June. Unless the guards aren’t good enough to at least tread water, and that may be the case.
The Western Conference is loaded with outstanding lead guards, players like Steph Curry, James Harden Russell Westbrook and Chris Paul that can all be MVP level, and there is a major question as to how San Antonio copes, with Tony Parker long past-peak, and Patty Mills having reached his moderate ceiling. How bad was their production last night?
Min Pts FG Ast TO +/-
PARKER 24:00 0 0-4 2 2 -6
MILLS 23:08 6 1-4 0 2 -8
That is a “yikes” level of performance, and it doesn’t measure subpar defense either, the lack of ball pressure a prime reason why the Warriors were able to knock down 51.2 percent of their shots, with 31 assists.
Gregg Popovich is as good as they come at piecing together what he has, and in a different season might be able to gut through with Parker/Mills. But in this particular campaign, against the guards they will be up against in the playoffs, the challenge has become formidable.
For your listening pleasure…
This week’s Final Four Podcast is now up, covering all aspects of what will be happening in Phoenix (I know, technically it is Glendale, but that does not resonate as well). Do not be alarmed by the long run time – there is also a lot of talk about the Raiders coming to Las Vegas at the end, so for those just wanting the focus on the hoops it will be mission accomplished long before then.
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