Point Blank – March 22, 2017
Sweet 16 West – The Game Inside the Game…And time for some more Palmtree MLB to add to the portfolio…
Today the main focus shifts to San Jose and the West Regional and one of the more intriguing talking points from the entire Sweet 16 comes into play – do we have a rare setting in which a #1 seed is facing an uphill battle because of a matchup problem? And is this the time that Chris Mack gets over the Sweet 16 hump, or is it the same story as the previous Xavier trips to this stage under his direction. Let’s get to work...
WEST VIRGINIA/GONZAGA – On the struggles of the Zags when out of their comfort zone
Watching Gonzaga get chased down from behind vs. Northwestern on Saturday was a shocker, and the experience was made more frustrating because it dinged the pocket. The Wildcats weren’t the style or level of team that would be able to come back from a 22-point deficit to make a game of it, but then again neither was Brigham Young supposed to be able to rally from 14 down to win 79-71 at Gonzaga a few weeks prior. There was a common denominator in those games, and it comes front-and-center in this matchup – can Gonzaga handle the ball vs. pressure?
What were the keys to the BYU and Northwestern rallies? They ramped up the pressure on defense and were effective – the Bulldogs had an ugly ratio of 28 turnovers vs. only 19 assists in those games, particularly ugly because they were favored by a collective -31.5. But now here is the rub – the two teams that chased them down, coming up with 20 steals in the process, don’t play good pressure defense -
TO% Steal%
BYU #308 #171
NORTHWESTERN #208 #232
So if a team struggled vs. those two, what happens against –
TO% Steal%
WEST VIRGINIA #1 #3
That brings a rather dramatic matchup into play, both from a full team level, and also individually. Part of the Gonzaga offensive struggles in both tourney games so far was the sub-par play of floor leader Nigel Williams-Goss, who has gone just 10-29 from the field, and 1-7 beyond the arc. For as talented as he is, this is the first post-season go-round for Williams-Goss, and now he takes on a big responsibility against the savvy and toughness of Jevon Carter.
While this is a major step up for Williams-Goss, it is nothing new for Carter, and if we were going to do a strength of schedule rating just based on the opposing PGs he has been up against it would be substantial – three times vs. Monte Morris, two each vs. Frank Mason, Jawun Evans, Manu Lecomte and Jordan Woodard, and single outings vs. London Perrantes and Matt Farrell.
Now let’s go to the flip side of the strength of schedule notion not just in terms of ability, but style. It wasn’t just that the West Coast Conference did not help Gonzaga develop because of overall mediocre play, but in terms of this matchup the lack of pressure defense may also be significant -
TO% Steal%
LOYOLA #25 #23
PACIFIC #297 #344
PEPPERDINE #323 #284
PORTLAND #279 #317
SAINT MARY’S #332 #316
SAN DIEGO #336 #346
SAN FRANCISCO #124 #88
SANTA CLARA #145 #218
Only Loyola-Marymount extended the defense to pressure the ball, and of course the Lions didn’t do it with anywhere near the size, athleticism and depth that Bob Huggins brings from his roster. The Bulldogs are simply not well-versed for what they are about to see.
What makes this matchup factor so important this week is that the markets are dealing the game more on base power ratings, as is their nature at this stage, and I am now seeing some 3.5 show up. That will put this one firmly in pocket, #815 West Virginia (7:35 Eastern) at +3 or better for about two-thirds of a position, and +145 or better for the other third.
XAVIER/ARIZONA – Is Chris Mack once again too short on talent to win in this round?
There will be both good and bad written about Mack across the Sports Mediaverse this week, the positive being that he is in his fourth Sweet 16 in eight seasons as Xavier head coach, which is quite an accomplishment (the Musketeers made the tourney in all but one of those campaigns). The negative is that the runs have ended in this round, and that will bring the usual nonsense into play of Mack not being able to “win the big one”.
Here is why you can ignore that latter notion – on my tracking Xavier has gone 3-0 ATS under Mack in this round, and even traditional sources will call it a 2-0-1 -
2010: L 101-96 as +5 vs. KANSAS STATE in OT
2012: L 75-70 BAYLOR as +6.5
2015: L 60-68 ARIZONA as +10.5
As long-time readers will be aware by now, I track all ATS decisions for Sides and Totals based on the score at the end of regulation play, which is a much more valuable method in terms of understanding the teams going forward. And when you do all of the NCAA tourney counting for Mack it comes out to a substantial 12-3 ATS, which puts him a step ahead of even John Beilein, who we dealt with here yesterday.
Mack’s game plans were good enough in those Sweet 16 losses, but his roster didn’t have the talent to get over the hump against superior competition. And what do we see coming from the Thursday matchup vs. Arizona? Damn if it doesn’t look like the same thing.
This season could have been different. While the Musketeers did not make it to the Sweet 16 last spring it would be hard to fault their 66-63 second-round loss to Wisconsin, when the Musketeers got closed out 9-2 down the stretch after leading 61-57. They were again beaten by a good team, and there was a lot of optimism for this season because the talent was the best it had been – in Myles Davis, Edmond Sumner and Trevon Blueitt there were literally the “Three Musketeers” returning that could lead them to the Final Four. Only Blueitt remains, however, which raises questions about whether this bunch may be nearing their ceiling.
Davis was never a factor this time around, only appearing in a couple of games after dealing with some off-court issues. Sumner was having a terrific season, but it got cut short after because of a torn ACL in his left knee early in game #22 vs. DePaul. There was an ugly Musketeer crash at that moment, an 0-6 SU and ATS demise in which they fell 57 points short of the market projections.
To their credit Mack kept coaching and the team kept competing, pulling it together to get a key win over Butler in the Big East tournament, and then dominating Maryland and Florida State by 46 points in the first two rounds of the Big Dance. But now here comes the reality again in the Sweet 16 – the remaining players simply may not be good enough to handle the Arizona talent.
It would be somewhat criminal from a sporting standpoint for Mack to wake up on Friday morning with an 0-4 in Sweet 16 games, and have the Sports Mediaverse make that too big a part of his resume, but while his team will play hard enough to challenge the pointspread, there may not be enough there to challenge the Wildcats.
As for that Arizona talent, for those that have not been following along all season this might be a good time for a refresher on a tirade from Sean Miller after a sloppy win over Stanford in early February. They’ve gone 10-1 since then, the only loss one vs. UCLA that was avenged by 11 points in the Pac 12 tournament.
Item: Since it’s getting to be about that time…
Now that there aren’t nearly as many basketball teams to be tracking anymore we know that many of you are engrossed in your MLB work, so let’s go to Eric Strasser, author of “Betting Baseball for Profit” and better known and Palmtree around these parts, to finish up his own pre-season shopping list -
Final full season plays for me. I'm not going to write all of these up but this is what I played and I wanted to get them posted. Not all of the numbers remain, but I think most are still gettable other than the Brewers.
MILWAUKEE over 68/68.5
TEXAS under 85.5
SEATTLE over 85.5 (good to 86)
SAN DIEGO under 66.5
NY METS under 87.5/88
TAMPA BAY over 78/78.5
Any pitcher over 17 losses -125
JOSE ABREU over 26.5 HR -110
JASOB DEGROM over 10.5 wins -105
ROBINSON CANO MVP +4600 (.1 unit)
I wasn’t sure if gettable would get past spellchecker but it did. I like the way the word flows, and may have to make it part of the lexicon going forward. Also nice to have a vested interest in watching the Padres late at night, otherwise it was going to be rather painful from a purely baseball standpoint.
About Last Night, NBA Part I…
The recent roller-coast ride of the Memphis Grizzlies has been a lead topic here a few times, David Fizdale trying to find ways to shake up a lethargic lineup, and while it seemed that he found a magic bullet by inserting Vince Carter into the starters group last week, something that paid off with a dramatic win over Milwaukee in which he scored 24 points, including 6-6 from 3-point range, it may be time for a change again.
Carter is capable of the occasional burst off the bench, but doesn’t have the game at the age of 40 to handle a starter’s load. While Memphis was 4-0 SU and ATS with him starting prior to last night’s loss at New Orleans, over the three previous games he had only contributed 20 points and seven rebounds in 88:25 of court time. But then came last night –
Min FG Pts Reb +/-
34:04 2-9 4 2 -27
Carter’s story was a feel-good for a while, but it may be time for Fizdale to go back to the drawing board again.
The flip side of last night’s equation also matters – while I did not expect any particular strides to be made by the Davis/Cousins combination until the Pelicans could get to training camp in October, note that they have shattered the market projects by 62.5 points over their last four home games.
About Last Night, NBA Part II…
I may re-visit this topic tomorrow, when the Clippers play at Dallas, but for now it matters from a review standpoint. One of the questions that came up in yesterday’s thread concerning LAC over LAL was whether the First Half might be a better path instead of Full Game, just in case Doc Rivers got a big lead and backed off. As it turns out it would not have mattered to the portfolio bottom line, but it does matter going forward in terms of tracking the team.
One of the reasons I favored Full Game was a quote from Rivers stating that his team needed some work, still trying to get all of the pieces to fit best now that all hands are on deck. Yet there was once again no need for his starters in the fourth quarter, and note for the second night in a row the final score was misleading – on Monday 97-72 after three quarters vs. New York became a 114-105 final, and last night 108-74 after three quarters got closed up to 133-109.
Now consider this – when they tip-off at Dallas tomorrow, DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin haven’t been on the court in the fourth quarter of a game in over a full week, while Chris Paul got some work in across the final stanza at Denver last Thursday, but sat out the closing 4:24.
The upside here is that there may be a rare level of physical freshness for this bunch, not just Griffin and Paul having used up far less energy than usual because of games missed to injury, but also this late-season breather. The downside is that they will have also gone a while without facing a difficult challenge. There are some interesting components to sort through here.
For your listening pleasure...
The Sweet 16 podcast, along with Brad Powers and Steve Fezzik, is now up -
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@PregamePhd (a work in progress, feedback appreciated)