Point Blank – March 1, 2017
The 2017 NBA axis has been tilted…On the Realities of those Raptors Rallies…Will Brad Stevens make a biblical change in his 4th Quarter rotations (it may no longer be gospel that Isaiah is on the court at crunch time)…
The NBA may be about to get interesting as hell. There will not be enough detailed news coming from the Warriors to get too deep into the Kevin Durant situation this morning, so I will save that for tomorrow as part of the lead-in to their game against the Bulls. Here is what the Warriors have sent out -
Which is why you will see the following unfolding today – as previously planned Golden State will sign Jose Calderon, but then he will be waived almost immediately so that Matt Barnes can be added to the roster.
Durant’s injury naturally brings the potential to be a seismic game changer, especially as the Cavaliers add Deron Williams and Andrew Bogut, who are collectively worth more than the current state of their individual skills would call for. There is a lot of sorting needed so time to get to work, especially with those Wizards/Raptors and Cavaliers/Celtics showcases on tap this evening to focus on some of the key issues, and I will begin with a team I bought an Eastern Conference ticket on not too long ago – just how much should one still believe in Toronto right now?
Item: On the Realities of those Raptors Rallies
I got into the hunt with the Raptors when Serge Ibaka and Anthony Tucker were brought on board, two pieces that will bring a more significant presence to their rotations than the markets were appreciating. In Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan they had the scorers to challenge anyone in the East, now the depth and defense have also been improved.
Then Lowry was lost to a wrist injury, with the projection that the earliest he could return would be the first round of the playoffs. That isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Lowry leads the NBA in minutes per game at 37.7, after finishing second to James Harden in that category LY, and he was worn down come playoff time. Getting a break now will save Lowry the wear and tear of a lot of game minutes, and a wrist injury is also somewhat fortunate in that he can continue to get his conditioning work in.
Then comes what should be a positive boost for the psyche of the team – they have opened the post-break cycle with three straight wins without him. But while his injury is not as worse as it could be, neither are the wins all that positive. DeRozan has been the best player in the NBA since the break, capping those three wins with that late jumper to beat the Knicks on Monday, but now there becomes a question as to what the grind ahead does to his game.
The plus of those wins is the resiliency of the team, rallying after being down 17 vs. Boston, by 12 vs. Portland, and by 17 vs. New York. The negative of those wins is that they were down 17 vs. Boston, 12 vs. Portland and 17 vs. New York. The comeback to beat the Celtics lost luster when Boston got rudely dumped by 114-98 by Atlanta on Monday, and if not for Detroit going 16-35 at the FT line on Sunday, the Celtics could be without a post-break win. Meanwhile the Trail Blazers are heading nowhere at 24-34, and the Knicks would have to elevate to get to nowhere, while also playing without Kristaps Porzingis in that game.
None of that takes away from how good DeRozan has been, with 113 points across those wins. It is how hard he is having to work for his points that may make a difference come playoff time - DeRozan was #9 in minutes-per-game LY and sits at #12 this season. In the post-break cycle it has been 36:58 per game, and a tough 36:58.
Here is the problem – even with Lowry on board DeRozan got a lot of his points off of isolation plays, Toronto posting a 33-24 record into the All Star break and rating #4 in offensive efficiency despite being dead last in assist percentage at 47.2. You can survive that with the ability of Lowry and DeRozan to go one-on-one.
In the post-break the Raptors are still sitting at #6 in PP100, but that assist percentage is down to a frightening 37.4 (for comparion, no one else in the league is below 50.0). Put so much of the ability to overcome that on DeRozan, in particular his ability to get to the FT line, which naturally lowers the assist counts - he has gone 37-41 at the line over those three wins. But while it has been a unique opportunity for DeRozan to step up to a higher level in the short-term, how much of a toll might it take later?
Hence his Tuesday take becomes something worth filing away, and the microscope comes out for that showdown vs. the Wizards tonight - “I don’t think (I need to) score more. I need to be more conscious about my ability to score. I have to be a playmaker out there. As long as I can do that, I can make the guys be better for us. I want to be the guy who makes my teammates better. I want to make teams make a decision on whether they should blitz me or take away the other four guys on the court.”
That sounds like the right mode, but can they make it work? DeRozan had 37 points vs. the Knicks, all other starters 40. Across the three wins he has as many turnovers (9) as assists. And in terms of anything coming easily for the offense, there were only 14 fast break points generated in those three wins.
I think the markets are too high in making Toronto -4 this evening, and the opener of 211 for the Total was wrong, and got corrected quickly by the markets, but I am hesitant to check the box next to the Wizards – the win over Golden State was the kind that can lead to some distraction for the quick turnaround (I was hoping to find a Toronto Team Total Under 107.5, but the early market surge to the full game under took that away).
Item: Meanwhile over in Boston…
As hinted at above, the Celtics have not been in good form since the break, which brings out the microscope tonight because this setting calls for an “all in” by Brad Stevens and his team. A win gets them into the hunt in terms of home court advantage throughout the EC playoffs; a loss takes them to 0-3 in the season series and turns the seeding battle more towards fending off the Raptors and Wizards for #2 than chasing the Cavaliers.
I will not just be looking for how well Boston plays tonight, but also to see the particular rotation now that Avery Bradley is back, and whether what has been a struggling defense can regain traction. Losing Bradley for a long stretch is a big part of why this has happened –
Celtics Defense PP100
2016 100.9 (#4)
2017 106.1 (#18)
Bradley made his return in Monday’s loss to Atlanta, coming up with three steals in 14:58 of court time, but Stevens only played him in the first half. The Hawks rolled 63-51 after intermission.
One of the challenges that Stevens faces is an issue that was made a lead topic here a while back - while Isaiah Thomas has put up some explosive numbers offensively, he remains one of the NBA’s worst defensive players, and even in his gaudy fourth-quarter showings Boston has been a weaker team with him on the court at crunch time. Now that Bradley has a game under his belt, might this be the time that we see him more on the floor in the final stanza, and Thomas less?
There is also a lot to see on the flip side. I believe Williams will be a solid fit for the Cavaliers, especially in working in tandem with Kyle Korver on the second unit, those two having played together for three seasons with the Jazz. It also looks like Bogut will be on the way, though not in time to play tonight, and his defensive presence is something badly needed for a defense that has fallen off just as badly as Boston’s –
Cavaliers Defense PP100
2016 102.3 (#10)
2017 106.5 (#20)
There will be plenty of food for thought spread across the table in this game, but I will be doing that charting with a financial interest only if a +2 appears for Boston.
In the Sights, NCAA…
Tonight is “grind night” for Steve Alford and UCLA. Off of that key revenge win over Arizona, and with a Saturday night send-off for seniors Bryce Alford and Isaac Hamilton, plus the accepted reality of that being the last game in Pauley Pavilion for Lonzo Ball, there is absolutely nothing in tonight’s matchup vs. Washington, a team that Bruins have already handled by 41 on the road, to create a spark. So with the elder Alford having a tight rotation that he needs to keep fresh for what could be a long run ahead (only seven players saw action for more than 10 minutes at Arizona), look for a lethargic second half tonight, helping to set up #570 UCLA/Washington Under (11:00 Eastern), with some 173 out there in the early trading (make 172 the value point).
It helps, of course, that the Bruins have been putting more of a focus into their defense anyway, with Alford moving away form his four-guard starting lineup after losing at USC – since then it has been a 5-2 run to the Under, falling 6.2 per game below the projections. The main goal tonight will be on tightening those defensive rotations in the early stages, and ideally for Alford building a comfortable enough lead to get his key cogs off the floor as much as possible in the second half.
Washington’s Markelle Fultz has not been cleared by the team doctors to play tonight, and the Huskies may hold him out until next week’s conference tourney. That leaves Lorenzo Romar without many options, and a team without confidence, and there is little chance of his game being close enough for any late-game fouling, the final possessions largely being dribble-fests to keep the clock running.
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