Point Blank – February 27, 2017
For KU and Mason is it Bow-out before Blowout…Did Virginia’s offense really break out or was it just a Guy thing…On getting a piece of the Rockets offense before the prices go into orbit…
It will be conference tourney time for some of the lower echelons of the NCAA ladder this week, while the higher rungs reach the end of their regular season schedules, which will bring a lot of handicapping issues into play. The NBA has also begun that final sprint to the playoffs, with plenty of drama at hand in the seeding processes, Toronto getting a pair of wins without Kyle Lowry something that may matter later, and the Pelicans already an even longer shot to make the playoffs after a trio of games with Boogie Cousins, who is already suspended from Wednesday’s game vs. Detroit.
There are a lot of issues to get through today so the jukebox gets plugged in, but this time it would have been that way even if the topics were limited, a rather poignant moment last week that shows some of the magic that can come through great artists, and great art.
Christchurch, New Zealand is one of those far away places that don’t capture the consciousness of the rest of the world often, save for the tragedy of the earthquakes that have caused so much destruction there in recent years, and the city is rarely on the itinerary for major performers on their global tours. But in part because of what the city has gone through, Christchurch was chosen as one of the venues for Bruce Springsteen and The E-Street Band on their Summer down Under tour, and it led to a memorable evening, perhaps no part of it capturing the spirit of the moment better than “My City of Ruins”. Let me set it up, hopefully without becoming too long-winded.
I have written often here about the special places that art can take us, in part because I believe it is a necessity if someone is to survive the vagaries of the bouncing balls that generate the scoreboards we follow here each day. One needs not only an appreciation of the human condition in understanding athletes and their performances, but also of themselves, each of us working around own nuances to navigate those changing tides of both sport, and life.
Music has been one of those outlets for me, being a most fortunate son of the Rock and Roll generation, and from my own vantage point I have not experienced that particular genre taking to a higher level than the Springsteen/E-Street tour of 2012-14 (yes, they basically ended up on the road for 26 months). The summer shows in Europe in 2012 didn’t just go to the highest levels I have heard in Rock and Roll, but equaled the best that I have ever witnessed anyone doing anything. “My City of Ruins” was an integral part of those shows, and it brought many of us something that we weren’t sure of when first placing an album on a turntable way back when – that Rock and Roll was not just a sound for young people, but rather something that could defy any generations or limitations.
Many are doing this, continuing to create great songs that are about the life stages that we all go through (Ian Hunter only gets better with time, though not many are paying proper attention), but I never saw a greater connection between the artist and the community than Springsteen on that tour. It was the first time the band took the stage without Clarence Clemons and Danny Federici, using a five-piece horn section to replace the former, and one of the things that Springsteen learned quickly as those shows unfolded was how important it was for the audience to have the opportunity to say goodbye to two musicians many had been watching on stage for decades, and had developed a relationship with. But it wasn’t just that – it was also art creating a moment in which those in the audience that had suffered losses of their own could find a catharsis in community. Rock and Roll can get you laid for the first time in the back of a car; and can also be there for you more than a generation later when facing mortality, if the art is elevated to the proper level. Springsteen did this with “My City of Ruins”, a gospel moment across so many shows, providing a valuable message to start our week -
There will also be plenty of emotion in Lawrence, Kansas this evening for the final appearances of Frank Mason and Landon Lucas, and many programs will have such settings over the week ahead. They are important to the handicapping, but also a bit tricky…
Item: Kansas may not be covering the spread when Frank Mason and Landon Lucas take their bow
While it is not nearly as important as it once was, Senior Night, or the Last Home Game (I’ll use LHG throughout the week), would seem like an opportune time to back a team. The seniors bring more emotion to the proceedings, the underclassmen go hard to send the veterans out with a win, and fans that have been supporting the same players for so many years pack the building for the final appearance. Except that these days there just aren’t all that many seniors anymore…
There are also some problems with those settings that do occur, however, so why not start this week with a look at one of the most significant. I would have no qualms with anyone voting Mason the Player of the Year, with his end-game resolve getting Kansas over the hump in so many close encounters (11-2 in games decided by seven points or less, both of the defeats coming in overtime). Tonight will mark game #139 and start #107 of his Kansas career, numbers that we will rarely see going forward. Bill Self acknowledges how big of a deal it will be - “I think it’ll be one of the best Senior Nights that we’ve ever had. And we’ve had some great ones. I think there’ll be a lot of emotion in the building.”
And from Mason - “I’m just enjoying before Monday gets here, taking it day by day. Whatever happens Monday, I’m really not ready for it.”
But before getting too excited about the Kansas ATS prospects, note that sometimes there are inhibitors to scoreboard performances in these games, and the Jayhawks bring a few of them.
First note that snior Tyler Self, the coach’s son, will get a spot in the starting lineup, despite having only played 19 minutes all season, with more turnovers (6) than points (5). Second is that crescendo moment that everyone will be looking for, the opportunity for Mason and Lucas to be brought off the court to a standing ovation, can very easily take place with Kansas leading by less than the -13.5 the current markets are trading at. Would it be “mission accomplished” if Kansas led by a dozen with 2:00 remaining? Absolutely, especially given that Self understands how much respect Oklahoma’s Lon Kruger has for the sport – the Sooners would likely not turn up the heat and press hard over the final two minutes if the margin is not in genuine striking distance.
I’ll be isolating more of these settings as the week plays out, but for now what could be one of the most emotional games of all does not leave much of anything that the handicapper can take advantage of. It comes with the territory - sometimes deep dives into the sport only bring conundrums, like trying to determine whether that was really a break-out game from the Virginia offense on Saturday…
Item: Did the Virginia offense really turn a corner, or was it just a Guy thing?
Tony Bennett’s Cavaliers were on an 0-4 SU and ATS run when they headed to Raleigh to play N.C. State on Saturday, having averaged just 50.5 points in regulation across those defeats. Among them was an ugly 65-41 loss to North Carolina in Chapel Hill, the rematch with the Tar Heels now set for this evening.
The quick glance brings the appearance of the Virginia offense finding itself again vs. the Wolfpack in winning 70-55, including a crisp 11-16 from 3-point range. One has to be careful with that. There is the obvious issue of State playing for a lame duck coach and being relatively easy to exploit, but even more important may be where the Virginia points came from. It was a shortened rotation, with Isaiah Wilkins not starting for the first time all season because of strep throat, though he did play 20 minutes off the bench, while Darius Thompson did not play at all because of an undisclosed illness. Many of those minutes were filled by freshman Kyle Guy, who scored 19 points in knocking down 5-7 from 3-point range, and while Guy is indeed a sharp-shooter, there may not be much follow-up tonight from that performance at all.
How much had Guy contributed over the two previous games? 15 floor minutes with no points, missing all five shot attempts. He also did not have a rebound in a 13-minute stint vs. North Carolina, a game in which the Cavaliers were dominated 40-23 on the glass. Listed at 6-3/165, he does not bring much presence yet outside of shooting, which can be enough against the N.C. State’s of the world, but may not leave much place for him on the court tonight.
Hence the difficulty in grading that Saturday win – the offense may not have turned any real corner. As for the health of Wilkins and Thompson, they remain issues. Both the University release and the Charlottesville Daily Progress project Wilkins coming off the bench again, and while naturally that is subject to change if he feels better by tipoff, his absence would mean sending out a four-guard lineup against the best rebounding team in the nation. How good are the Tar Heels on the offensive boards? They are reclaiming 42.6 percent of their missed shots, and no one else in the nation is above 39.4.
Item: Time to start getting a handle on the Rockets orbit now
Although the topic comes up often in the threads, I probably don’t delve into money management nearly enough in the lead topics, and how so much bankroll building is done making small bets at small edges. A good example would be reader “DIRTYDOG1” bringing up Pacific +2 as a notion vs. Loyola-Marymount on Saturday night, one of those games that did bring an edge at the price points (LHG playing a part), but also the level of teams that you can’t fully sink your teeth into. So you make a small play at advantage, and over time those will add up.
This takes us to the current Houston Rockets, and how smaller wagers can be used as a buy-in across a general concept when one can not be too precise about the value meter. This discussion was started back on Thursday when they traveled to New Orleans, some of that focused on the difficulties the Pelicans are going to have in their transition, but also on just how dynamic the Houston offense could become, with Lou Williams having been added.
To backtrack, a team already playing both fast and effectively on offense, #4 in pace and #2 in efficiency at the All Star break, brought on board the NBA’s leading bench scorer in Williams, which combines with Eric Gordon to have the rarity of #1 and #2 in that category now playing for the same team. Would it mean playing even faster, and perhaps even better?
This is where the speculation gets fascinating. If a team really wants to attack Golden State, the best mode might be something that would be suicidal for most of the league, go out and run with the Warriors and try to expose their lack of depth. Houston is the only team that can dare to do that, and the Rockets may now positioned to offer just such a challenge.
So where does the money management aspect come in? By opting to play Houston Team Totals Over form the onset of the new rotation, until the markets find a balance point in the pricing. Yes, the numbers look high, but so far they haven’t been high enough, so small wagers are put into play as part of a sequence.
Admittedly the quality of defense the Rockets has faced since the All-Star break has not been high, but they are out of the gate at a 109.0 pace, compared to 101.7 pre-break, and a 123.2 PP100, compared to 111.5. Now consider the bench, which has generated 133 of the 271 points through those two wins, Williams/Gordon providing 77.
Next let’s focus on what it means for various aspects of James Harden’s game. Not only can he lighten his load of minutes played (at the break he was on pace to lead the league for the third straight season), but he also does not have to score to carry the team, which saves energy when he is on the floor. Since the Western Conference playoffs will bring the likes of Curry/Westbrook/Paul/Conley in the playoffs, you know what that means.
Let’s look at a few of the emerging categories worth tracking, Harden’s minutes played, field goal attempts per 48 minutes, and field goal attempts per assist -
Pre-Break Post-Break
Minutes 36.6 32.2
FGA/48 24.8 17.9
FGA/AST 3.2:1 1:1
Again, it has only been two games, both playing with comfortable leads against bad defenses, so the numbers must be taken with a grain of salt. But since there is logic at play they are also worth scrutiny in terms of projecting the cycle ahead. It means another foray into the marketplace, and while the wager amount remains moderate, I will stay in play until this bunch gets priced properly.
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