Point Blank – December 6, 2016
What a “Bettor Better Know” – NFL #13…The Thrill is Gone for Ron Rivera and Todd Bowles…
With a full one fourth of the NFL regular season remaining there is going to be a lot of discussion about attitudes this week, in this case not instigating it but reacting to what is already out there. One of the prime components in late-season discussion across the betting landscape are those notions that certain teams have “quit” or “packed it in”, which leads to the imaginery handicapping nirvana of finding an easy team to play against.
Sometimes that indeed does happen over the final game or two, but that is ever so rare when there is a lot of season left to be played. It becomes tantamount to focus in on now because of those highly visible debacles in front of the national cameras on Sunday and Monday night, the Panthers and Jets putting up extremely inept performances, and with so many folks watching it brings a prime issue of market perceptions.
With a long read ahead time to set some background on the classic jukebox, and we’ll go to the Tuesday morning feelings for Ron Rivera and Todd Bowles, the former having been to the Super Bowl last season, and the latter going 10-6. This time around “The Thrill is Gone”, so let’s go to B. B. King and a host of masters, from the Crossroads Guitar Festival in Chicago in 2010, blues guitar played about as well as it can ever be played –
I’ll get back to Rivera and Bowles in a moment, but if the talk is to be about attitudes I am going to head to the other end of the spectrum first. Can teams over-achieve by playing with more energy and confidence? Yes, especially the latter element, which winning breeds, by this time of the season feeding off itself. The Chiefs and Raiders are prime examples, but since they go head-to-head on Thursday I will save them for a deeper dive later in the week, although most of you already know one of the key recap drills from KC/Atlanta – don’t you dare allow Albert Wilson’s 55-yard scamper for a TD on a fake punt to get recorded as a running play, for either the Chiefs offense or Falcons defense.
When teams are winning games such notions as productive paranoia can become relevant…
Item: Detroit keeps winning, without getting respect (even in 2016 markets don’t respect a team that can’t run)
Sub-Item: Does productive paranoia mean that you can win without running well
Since that house-cleaning among the assistant coaching staff leading up to the bye week in 2015 the Lions are 14-6 SU and 13-6-1 ATS, getting that many wins despite only having been favored nine times. None of the losses have come by more than seven points, yet a rather average New Orleans teams was sitting out there at -6.5 against them on Sunday.
It would seem that the markets simply don’t respect the Lions much and that would be natural – their overall numbers aren’t special, and in particular they can’t run a lick, which even in 2016 matters a great deal. Detroit is #29 in yards per game on the ground, and #27 in yards per rush. There is some flaw in that thinking, however – the short passing game that has become a fact of life under new OC Jim Bob Cooter extends the running game notions of ball control and down and distance by incorporating a lot of short passes in the mix.
But that is the tactical stuff – the focus now is on the attitudes of the players and coaches to execute those schemes, and the attention to detail to get the most out of what they have each week. That takes us to the rather stoic Jim Caldwell, and an inside look at the foundation the Lions are working from -
“Last week was one of our better weeks of practice. And when you practice the way we practice consistently, you can’t help but get better, I think. And that’s despite all of the shortcomings, injuries and things of that nature we don’t talk about. We just focus on who’s here, what do we have to do, let’s go get it done.
“There’s a multitude of things. Last week, it was we were going to practice fast, we want to stay hungry and make certain that we’re grappling to try the productive-paranoia sort of atmosphere within our practice to try to make certain we don’t leave a stone unturned. And we’re going to be precise.”
Caldwell is taking a page from Jim Collins in his use of “productive paranoia”, and there are some intriguing notions through those thought process, if also rather delicate. The key is to make them tangible, which is what Detroit did last week. Already without DeAndre Levy, the Lions had to face Drew Brees and a talented Saints offense without leading tackler Tahir Whitehead as well, and they took the challenge head-on, which translated to a strong showing by the defensive unit on the field , a rare three-interception game for Brees. Time for more Caldwell -
"That's kind of what we expect from our guys. We're not going to allow any excuse making. Guys have to step up and play. If we have a guy that's injured and we need someone else to step up and play, they gotta do a good job in that area and I think our guys have done that.
"We had different packages to kind of handle certain situations so we had to make some adjustments in those areas, particularly at linebacker. We were hurt a little bit there without Tahir (Whitehead). So we had some of our defensive backs playing a little bit in that area. But they held up. Our guys did a nice job of holding up in that situation."
There is no particular brilliance here, no magic psychology, but instead the fact that the Lions have been winning. When you are winning it is easier to believe in what you are doing, which can mean extra time in the film room during the week, or extra reps with teammates after practice. Winning does that. Losing can do the opposite…
Item: What now for the Panthers and Jets
Had there been a tangible way to measure energy at practice last week, it is likely that the Detroit players would have registered much higher than those from Carolina and NYJ. The Panthers and Jets may have put in as much time on the practice field, but since their earlier efforts had not been rewarded this season there could easily have been a bounce missing from their steps, and far less attention to detail. It showed on the field, both teams performing miserably.
It is the aftermath that becomes a challenge for the handicapper. It is ever so easy to have watched those games and declared the two teams dead for the remainder of the season. Decades of finely grading professional sports tells a different tale – many times a rock bottom, especially when it is a particularly embarrassing one, can mark the turning a pendulum, rather than the settling of a grave stone. Especially when it is still this early in the season.
Here is the gist – the players and coaches are pros. To have a job in the NFL means that a high level of accomplishment has been achieved, which is also a reflection of ability. When you take that down to a personal level you can get a better feel for it – regardless of whether a team can make the playoffs, each player is under the scrutiny of being graded on every play, and those grades meaning $$$ come contract time. Hence while notions of teams giving up become common conversation, the realities can be much different.
What about these two? Carolina may be a fascinating read this week. Having been on the road for an extended time, and also playing as poorly as they did at Seattle, Ron Rivera has chosen to give the Panthers the first two days of this week off - “You are concerned about that, the mental health of the team. We’re disappointed. Our expectations were so high. But this is the situation we’re in and there’s no turning around. We’ve got to go out and do what we’re capable of and make the best of it.”
That may help to clear some heads, but there is also something else worth following – the possible return of Luke Kuechly, Kurt Coleman and Mario Addison to the defense. I will pay particular attention to Kuechly – he is the leader on the field of that unit, and the kind of guy who can get the others to keep playing hard, regardless of the circumstances. The Panthers are definitely under the microscope this week.
As for the Jets, they wake up on Tuesday to face one of the true humiliations there could be in NFL 2016 – they are underdogs to the 49ers. If they compete as professionals, they are still the significantly better team. Will they? It means a week of focusing in on Todd Bowles as he lays out the challenge to his players –
“I’m angry after any loss. I’m angry when I physically get my ass kicked instead of something happening mentally. When you get your ass kicked physically, that’s embarrassing. I don’t think we had a lot of effort. I’ll see the film. I’m sure there are some people who showed up, but for the most part, we got our ass kicked. It’s very troubling.”
Of course as awful as the Jets were, San Francisco has been installed as the favorite despite that rather ugly showing at Chicago…
Item: On grading the games in Chicago and Green Bay
Grading bad weather games is a challenge because the statistics are often extreme. If I credit the Bears defense with allowing six points, 10 first downs and 147 yards it just doesn’t work, that game having too much impact. Yet having watched how futile the 49ers looked, there is the genuine issue that they do deserve some degree of statistical punishment.
Colin Kaepernick and Blaine Gabbert dropped back to pass 21 times, and those plays produced a net of six yards. There were more sacks than completions, a true NFL rarity. After a couple of solid games Kaepernick was benched early, which raises questions again about who will be in charge going forward, more confusion to a team already facing so much.
There was a genuine crash involved, something noted in discussions last week – practicing in Orlando hardly prepared the 49ers for the circumstances, which were not that terrible when you saw the way the Bears ran their offense, Matt Barkley and his teammates having dealt with the conditions in the days leading up to the game. The Chicago side of the box score did not bring any indication of bad weather at all; one might have classified it as normal given the opponent.
Texans/Packers was similar – if you only saw the box score there might not have been any indication of poor conditions, and in truth there weren’t; the heaters beneath Lambeau Field make it playable when it is snowing. So I leave that box score as is, and also the Chicago offense, but I do have to reduce the weighting of the San Francisco offensive side of the Sunday equation substantially; still enough to punish the 49ers, but not so much that it rewards the Bears too much.
And of course it continues the on-going notion of everything one side of an equation does also being a reflection of the other. Which leads us to Cincinnati…
Item: Andy Dalton and the Bengals got 10.7 yards for every drop-back
Sub-Item: The Eagles allowed 10.7 yards for every drop-back
The Cincinnati passing game was superb on Sunday, Dalton throwing for 332 yards without a sack or interception. That gets classified as unexpected, playing without A.J. Green and Giovanni Bernard, which raises a question as to how much was good Bengals offense, and how much bad Eagles defense.
Let’s give Cincy some genuine credit because Dalton was getting the ball downfield to his WRs, Brandon LaFell and Tyler Boyd catching nine passes for 161 yards. But perhaps more of this goes against the Philadelphia defense, which has allowed the following counts over the past two games -
ATT CMP YDS TD SACKS INT
70 53 645 4 0 0
That is dismal, for a unit that was grading out rather well earlier in their first campaign under Jim Schwartz. In particular has been the pass rush, which relies on the guys up front getting there, instead of blitz packages. Hence some reading between the lines becomes necessary in terms of possible scheme changes.
Let’s start with Doug Pederson - "It's disappointing. Obviously we have to continue to put pressure on the quarterback. Sometimes it is hard with just four guys. And that's something we have to look at as a staff and make sure we're doing the right things there. The thing is, the third-down conversions are hurting us. Teams are staying on the field. We have to find a way to make a play and get them off the field.''
And more from DT Fletcher Cox, who will be up to over two months without a sack when Sunday kicks off - “Obviously, we aren't getting to the quarterback the way we should. When teams have success dinking and dunking us, and they see previous teams dinking and dunking, it's a copycat league. Teams are going to do that. They're going to get rid of the ball quick.”
That leads to a key matchup issue to focus on this week, especially if Jordan Reed returns for the Redskins – the one thing that offense does is get the ball out and spread it across a dangerous corps of pass catchers.
Item: Blake Bortles has more career Pick Sixes than Wins
Sub-Item: Don’t let that distract you from the Jaguars defense
Bortles threw Pick Six #11 in Sunday’s loss to Denver, a new record for any NFL QB in the first three seasons of his career, and a count that is also one more than the number of wins he has led the Jaguars to, 10. Jacksonville ownership is going to have a big decision to make in the off-season, especially in light of what is happening on the other side of the ball.
Since that no-show on national television in an ugly loss at Tennessee back in October, the Jacksonville defense has responded by allowing 258.2 yards per game over the last five outings, the NFL’s best in that category across that span. But because of the inept play of the offense, it wasn’t good enough to win any of the games.
This ties directly to those opening notions of pride and effort – this defense is competing hard because there is a sense of individual/group accomplishment, even if it does not show in the standings. From Gus Bradley - “These players are working hard and they’re going for it. Like I told the whole team, I don’t believe in excuses. It’s not alright where we are. But I do know this: They work hard each and every week. And that’s what I anticipate seeing again this week.”
There is something that has been missing, which may have some football bad luck in it, but also some design – despite stifling opponents, there were only two takeaways across those last five games, and they have gone eight games without an interception. Hence, more from Bradley -“When you know you’ve arrived is when a defense starts dictating the outcome of the game. That’s the mark of a really good defense. Right now, we’re not there yet, but the arrow is up. We’re really excited about this group of guys.”
The Jacksonville defense is not likely to be hitting the practice field like a 2-10 team this week, and that unit may continue to improve. But Bortles can only be Bortles.
Now let’s bet some hoops…
In the Sights, NCAA Hoops
There is one of those classic early-season spots that the markets don’t price well tonight, a case of an underdog playing harder than the favorite, and also a reduced home court advantage, and that puts #535 Brown (7:00 Eastern) into play, with some +15 available in the early trading, and this one carrying value at +13 or better.
The perception of this being a cross-town rivalry is not a part of the consciousness of the marketplace, the line being driven by power ratings, but the game does mean something extra to the Brown players, their biggest outside of anything in the Ivy League. It has mattered even more since former Bear star Mike Martin took over as HC, this now being his ninth go-round as either player or coach against the Friars. For a feel on how much the game means note that despite being double-figure underdogs in all four meetings since he took over on the sidelines, it has been a 3-1 ATS that includes two outright upsets. The only ATS failure came last season and you could forgive that one a bit – having been beaten in 2014, NBA-bound Kris Dunn and his Providence teammates brought a little extra focus. Yet even that one was not too far from the price, the Friars winning by 21, as -15.
How much of a road trip is this for the Bears? One mile. That is the distance from campus across the bridge to the Dunkin’ Donuts Center, and it is annually the shortest trip for any lined team to play a road game. They’ll have plenty of fan support, and on the floor there are enough scorers to be able to compete, with senior PG Tavon Blackmon certainly not intimidated by the matchup, having already played 98 career floor minutes vs. the Friars, much of that head-to-head vs. Dunn.
Note that while this is a big deal for Brown, it brings nowhere near the same passion for the Providence players, who just beat Rhode Island on Saturday in their biggest non-conference game. The Friars would be more than happy to just win and move on, and without much depth they will be hard-pressed to build margins this season.
Vegas: Monday with the Review-Journal NFL box score page
December brings more spice to my rotation on the local dining scene, a two-fold combination – the temperatures cooling in the valley that helps to take the taste buds in that direction, and also the way to offset a lot of rich traditional meals around the Holiday season. Though in truth it is never wrong to want some Bun Bo Hue, and when that mood strikes it means time to head to Pho Bosa (3711 South Valley View), another of the local success stories that have been a part of the Monday parade this fall.
What was once Bosa 1 when they first opened on Jones Boulevard about eight years ago is now in their third location, a large space with a full kitchen, the latter being a joy for Vanessa and Moises, who have worked hard to make it happen. The original name was a riff on Bolsa Avenue in Orange County, an area known as Little Saigon, and over time it was found that adding the ubiquitous Pho to the name made for an easier reference for travelers from other parts of the country.
There is a good/bad to that – while the name brings an easy reference to the classic Vietnamese noodle soup, Pho Bosa stretches its legs for much more, particular specializing in “Com Tam”, the broken rice dishes. Because of that there is an authenticity to what they do, and that particularly matters with Bun Bo Hue (Hue pronounced as “Hway”).
Bun Bo Hue is one of the world’s iconic soups, from the city in central Vietnam that was once the capital and is still known as the Imperial City, and when done properly brings one of the broadest spectrums of flavors and textures you will find from any dish – there is the classic Vietnamese balance of spicy/sour/salty/sweet, and it is accomplished by boldly introducing each component, then pulling it off with the deft touch of combining them properly. That does not happen in far too many places, some restaurants merely starting with pho stock and making it spicier. At Pho Bosa they would never think of that.
A proper Bun Bo Hue is the gastronomic delight of a spicy broth, with lemon grass playing a key role, thick round noodles, and an assortment of various proteins that includes something as basic as beef shank, but then also some pig’s knuckles, shrimp cake, oxtail, and a cube or two of pig’s blood. There is an art/science behind those items in the way they add both flavor and texture, a richness imported into the broth, and in particular the mineral taste of the pig’s blood plays well against the vibrancy of the spices. You will also get a plate of lime wedges and various herbs, including such items as perilla and banana blossoms, and you can see from my lunch photo that the first handful from that plate goes into the bowl quickly, more flavors being developed while the broth is steaming.
Bun Bo Hue packs a punch, but in truth the spicier the better because it elevates each of the elements. I play it off of an iced Vietnamese coffee for a nice balance, and it makes for a lunch in which just about every element across the taste buds gets touched.
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