Point Blank – December 5, 2016
What a “Bettor Better Know” – NCAA #14
Once upon a time the first Monday after the end of the regular season was a time to take a deep breath and relax a bit, awaiting a couple of dozen bowl games, with a few of them aligned to produce a National Champion. That isn’t the case anymore, with an absurd bowl layout from the standpoint of the football purist, but one that provides plenty of opportunity for the handicapper. The first of those games kick off in less than two weeks, so the time for power ratings prep is now, as the various participants give us some tells in terms of their excitement levels right now.
The big prize comes later of course, so the week begins with a quick take on the work of The Committee, and on how delicate some of those processes can be. At least it was easy for them at the top, Alabama possibly being as clear of a #1 as this process will ever bring, and I do believe for the AFCA Trophy it will be another year of residing in the Yellowhammer State. To set the background for your Monday reading let’s go back to some classic Lynyrd Skynyrd, Ronnie Van Zant leading the way, live from Oakland in 1977 in what was tragically his last summer on earth -
Item: I don't have much critique of The Committee
I was asked for my own Final Four as part of the weekend thread, and noted that if I was on the committee I would have fudged a bit, and gone for what was best for the sport, which I believe the current field accomplishes. Over time I believe it is better for the Pac 12 to get their conference winner in than a second team from another league, even if the Pac 12 itself is not sending its best team. Do I have Washington #4 on my power ratings? No. But the Huskies are awfully close, and that takes us to a key handicapping point, something that many of us take for granted, yet annually see being misunderstood across the Sports Mediaverse.
If you choose to, you can read tens of thousands of words this morning criticizing The Committee, and when I opened the local Review-Journal the headline atop the sports page was “Playoff panel‘s picks stir debate”. But of course they did – there will always be debate if the debate is voluntary; and the mere fact that any analyst anywhere considers there to be a debate means that de facto there is one. And anyone that wishes to knock off an easy Monday morning column can find reasons why Michigan or Penn State should have been ahead of Washington.
The reality is that for those of us who spend time rating teams every day as a big part of our livelihood, there just are not clear-cut distinctions. I would have four teams within a little more than a point of each other for the #4 spot, and that includes LSU and USC, who weren’t even a part of the discussion. If I had to put them in order it would have been LSU, Michigan, USC and Washington, and if that order got printed out it would naturally lead to “How can you have LSU that far ahead of Washington?” notions. And the answer would be that I don’t have the Tigers that far ahead – there is often just a razor’s edge across clusters of teams, and forcing a ranking order does a disservice to truth.
Note that Penn State was not even in that mix, although the Nittany Lions do lead the next tier. Which hen takes us to one of the next major points – head-to-head is just not as simple as it appears. In this case I can be the opposite of a “homer”, having spent some of the best years of my life living in State College Pennsylvania, and note that for all of the folks that want the platform of “But Penn State won the Big 10 and beat Ohio State head-to-head”, I suggest getting the video of Buckeyes/Nittany Lions, watching it through a few times, and then grade which was the better team on the field in that game. Yet I do have something good to say about State, which I will get to in a moment.
Meanwhile the Crimson Tide really are special, so many playmakers across so many positions, and I do make them the prohibitive favorites, which is hardly rocket science, yet there was some -250 out there yesterday for them to win it all that was a bargain. How about having 25 different players either score a TD or throw a TD pass?
There is a key this time. While past columns around this time of year have noted one flaw in Nick Saban’s defensive designs, the struggles against mobile QBs, a matchup vs. DeShaun Watson or J.T. Barrett in the final game may not be the usual headache – the presence of Jalen Hurts on the practice field every day now allows that defense to be much more comfortable for such a matchup.
Of course Alabama being unbeaten takes some fun away from the usual script that I will lay out on this particular Monday each year in terms of how head-to-head can break down badly, but this season we can still work with #2 Clemson, so here we go: the Tigers lost to Pittsburgh, who lost to Oklahoma State; who lost to Central Michigan; who lost to Kent State; who lost to North Carolina A&T; who lost to North Carolina Central. Hence N.C. Central, which rates #194 on Jeff Sagarin’s ratings, is better than Clemson, right?
And that is pretty much that. The field is set, as are the bowls, so best to skip the debate and get to work.
Item: The NCAA Handicapper might think he can take a few days off now, but…
The current bowl calendar is ridiculous, with far too many teams extending what were in truth lousy seasons. Not all of the games are true rewards, and many of them are made-for-television affairs played at odd times in front of what will be sparse crowds. But for the handicapper that also means opportunity, and instead of this being a slow couple of days, it is time to roll up the sleeves and begin compiling notes on which teams are happy with their slot, and which could care less, the aftermath of their game being set one of the best times to source quotes from players and coaches. That is going to matter in terms of how much energy they bring to their preparation cycle on the practice field, which will also translate over to the game itself once it begins.
You don’t have to focus all that much on New Year’s weekend, and in fact from Wednesday December 28 forward most of the teams will be pretty happy with their lot. Prior to that is a minefield. Here are a few things to work around –
Sub-Item: The not-so-great home field advantage
One of the rewards of a bowl game is for the players to be able to take a trip, but for some teams that perk gets taken away. While there will be talk of a home field advantage for teams like New Mexico and Central Florida, being stuck in your own dorm rooms or apartment can be a bit of a drudgery, especially after finals when campus clears out. They may get the benefit of some extra fans on game-day, but not much else from the bowl experience. I do not include Hawaii on that list because the Warriors might genuinely prefer to stay on the islands than take a trip anywhere else.
In terms of fan support, also be careful in your charting. Does Idaho get a boost by playing in Boise? Perhaps, from alums that live in the city, but the trip from Moscow is 295 miles. So take the time to study some of the trips to either find a possible crowd edge (40 miles from the North Texas campus to Dallas; 167 miles from the Troy campus to Mobile, etc.), or to avoid the trap of the players listlessly hanging around campus.
Sub-Item: When the reward isn’t one
Among the very worst ideas out there are the ESPN games on December 26, all early starts in what will be mostly empty stadiums. That is the sport doing a disservice to the players and coaches, forcing them away from their families at a special time, for venues that are not much of a reward at all. How thrilled will Mississippi State and Miami O. be to have to wake up and play at 11 AM the morning after Christmas? How many players from Maryland and Boston College consider a Christmas weekend in Detroit to be something crossed off their bucket lists? These settings in particular call for extra intention into the attitudes of the players; for some it can be a downer from the start.
That leads to another key – if it isn’t a reward for the players, then it likely won’t be for their fans either. Those early kickoffs from December 26-30 will be in empty stadiums partly because the games are of little consequence, and also because many fans could not attend anyway, being stuck in between Christmas and New Year’s. Hence attitude and motivation being as important as stats and matchups in doing your breakdowns, and there will be much more to come across that front over the weeks ahead.
Now to say something good about Penn State, even though I would not have had the Nittany Lions in the Playoffs...
Item: Penn State won the second half 304-108 this season
I realized over the weekend in conversation that while Nitanny Lion OC Joe Moorhead was discussed often on the weekly NCAA Podcast, there was not a lead topic here. That was my bad. I believe Moorhead might have had a bigger impact than any assistant coach in the nation this season, and the topic headline pretty says it all, his ability adjust as games played out leading to the rather remarkable 304 second half points put up by Penn State, after only scoring 144 prior to intermission.
For those watching closely it was easy to see – the Nittany Lions have good offensive talent, not great, and as such needed to be able to take advantage of what holes a defense had. One of the reasons why I put some Wisconsin -2.5 in pocket last week was that I did not see the fundamentally-sound Badger defense as having much that could be exploited, yet Moorhead’s offense moved the ball at will in the second half. Let’s let QB Trace McSorley sum it up - "With the coaches that we have in this program, they have taught us never to put our head down, never give up, trust in what we're doing. We honestly do believe we're a second-half team."
McSorley himself is a prime example of how they made things happen. He does not have great arm strength, nor much burst as a runner, but became effective both through the air and on the ground because the playbook was gradually being tweaked around his specific skills. In the opener against Kent State, McSorley looked raw and possibly not ready for the job, only going 16-31 for 209 yards vs. a weak opponent. Against Ohio State he looked flat-out overmatched, only completing eight of 23 passes. But by the end of the season look at the development – in those last two wins over Michigan State and Wisconsin it was a sharp 39-54-760 from McSorley, with eight TD passes and no interceptions. The second half of those two games was a resounding 59-3 for the Nittany Lions.
Much was expected from Moorhead, but perhaps not this quickly. He was the OC in 2010 when Connecticut made it to the Fiesta Bowl, a place we will not see that program again long into the future. That led to him taking over the HC job at Fordham, after the Rams had gone 1-11 in 2011, losing the last eight games all by 15 points or more. But Moorhead got them to 6-5 in his first season, then 12-2, 11-3 and 9-3, making the playoffs each time.
What had been a stodgy and uninspired Penn State offense in 2015 became one that broke 86 plays of 20 yards or more this season. Some of that is talent, but I believe even more goes to design, and that is something that will create a conundrum for opposing DCs in the years ahead – it isn’t just a case of film study with the Nittany Lion offense, because Moorhead does so much tweaking not only from game-to-game, but inside of each game as well. So what opponents are seeing on film may bear little resemblance to what will be thrown at them once the game starts.
Now this week we find out how much tweaking Ivin Jasper is going to be able to do, because it is Army/Navy time.
Item: What now for Navy
Sub-Item: Who really has the better set-up this week?
There are plenty of subplots for what annually rates as my favorite of any college football game, and they bring some serious handicapping issues into play. The first starts with the work that Navy OC Jasper has on his hands, having lost key cogs QB Will Worth and RB Toneo Gulley early in Saturday’s loss to Temple.
Worth had a terrific season after replacing injured starter Tago Smith, not only running for 1,198 yards and 25 TDs, but also bringing a passing element previously lacking from the option packages – he threw for 1,397 yards at a profound 11.9 per attempt, generating a passer rating of 179.3. How good was that? While Worth did not have enough attempts to qualify among the national leaders, he would have been #5. Meanwhile Gulley was a team co-captain that brought a tremendous burst – his 43 carries went for 427 yards and four TDs, and his four pass receptions went for 110 yards and another TD.
Now stepping up at QB is sophomore Zach Abey, who hadn’t thrown a pass all season prior to the Temple loss, and against the Owls he was 7-13 with two interceptions and no TDs. Jasper lays it out this way - “He's up for next week in the biggest game of the year and we've got to get him ready to go. I'm not going to let it change the gameplan. We've got to go out and play. We can't play tight. We can't play scared. We've got to go out and play. He's got enough reps in practice to where he knows what's going on and we've got to go out there and just play.”
But is it really that easy? Yes, Navy has been running the same offensive package for a long time, but part of what made the Midshipmen click this season was the ability to tinker the passing game around Worth’s skills. Now there are not only the tactical decisions, but also questions of leadership for Abey, given the special pressure this game brings.
It also brings something else this season, a most unusual schedule cycle. One of the risks Navy took when moving into the American Athletic Conference was that if the team made the AAC title game it was going to change the landscape for the clash with Army. This season that happened, which now brings the following lay-out – the Midshipmen are going to be playing their 13th game, this being the eight straight playing week since their bye, while the Black Knights have not taken the field since November 19, that game not being much more than a scrimmage anyway as they rolled over out-manned Morgan State 60-3.
This is a challenge for the handicapper. Does the Navy schedule bring an element of fatigue into play, or does it mean that Ken Niumatalolo’s team is more in synch, albeit before those key injuries to the offense? Does Army have the benefit of being physically fresher, or does too long of a layoff impact the timing of the players, especially since the Morgan State game did not help all that much? There is a lot of digging to do.
Item: About those Sun Belt late bye weeks
Some of the digging being done last week was also in trying to gauge some awkward schedule lay-outs in the Sun Belt. There were three losing teams that had their bye after Game #11, which created a conundrum in breaking down their returns – did that mean a chance for a battered team to get refreshed and come back with a renewed vigor, or would a losing team just as soon have the season be over, and not come back with anything special?
The markets made a statement, opting to back the team off of a bye in all three games, and while it was a 1-2 for those moves, the two games that drew the most money were never in the hunt, UL-Monroe and Georgia State bringing little energy to their games.
Open Close Score
Georgia Southern +8.5 +7.5 28-24
UL-Monroe +9 +5 3-30
Georgia State +7 +4 12-37
As always there is the caution of reading into small samples, but sometimes there can be messages found. File this one away – neither UL-Monroe or Georgia State scored in the second half, despite facing an unimposing opponent, and that each of those results could have likely been worse, had the favorite chose to keep going (UL-Lafayette and Idaho only scored three points combined in the fourth quarter). Those games brought losing teams that seemed to just want to get off the field in the second half.
One could see a difference from Georgia Southern, and it has to do with the pedigree of the program – the Eagles have four national championships in their background, before stepping up in class, and had earned a bowl bid last year. There may be a genuine pride that will have them going hard to the final whistle each season.
In the Sights, Monday NBA…
The Lakers have played with tremendous energy under Luke Walton, sitting at 10-12 despite so many new faces learning to play together, and the rotations being furthered juggled as injuries come into play. That energy has been a key to their getting points on the board, making more happen with hustle than design, with the half-court offense starting the season at square one. After 22 games that offense is back to square one tonight, and it leads to #720 LA Lakers Team Total Under (10:35 Eastern), with 97 or higher enough value to be in play.
The Lakers just took a four-game road trip without DeAngelo Russell and Nick Young in the back-court, and only averaged 91 ppg. Now it gets even worse without Jose Calderon to run the point, and note that while they did score 100 points at Memphis on Saturday despite Calderon leaving after 8:04 that was a rather fluky result – Louis Williams went off for 40 points in 31:34 of court time, something we are unlikely to see again any time soon. A better reference point for that game was that the Lakers had more turnovers (18) than assists (16).
Now there isn’t much time for Walton to put a game plan together, this being the fifth game on as many different courts in seven nights, the usual routine yesterday of no Sunday practice after coming home from a road trip. It becomes even more problematic because opportunities in the open floor will not be easy to find – the Jazz are #30 in pace, and #4 in defensive efficiency, much of that tied together because they like to be able to set their half-court defense, a natural thing to do when you have Rudy Gobert. By turning this into a grinder they will force the Lakers to run plays, which was not the strength of Walton’s crew even with all hands on deck, and may be a particular weakness tonight.
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