ROCKDEMANSPORTS1 said:
MR CHRISTMAS the WESTGATE SYSTEM is a proven tested system NOW AT 35-18-2 . You want to discredit the puter go ahead but DONT TELL PRE- GAMERS THERE NOT PROVEN WINNING SYSTEMS . I CAN PROVE YOUR SMART ASS WRONG and you know it !!
I wasn't even talking about that. I was talking about your PUTER plays that you put out. If you're actually interested in having a conversation about that, I'll have my smart ass take the time to respond.
"Systems", for the most part, do not win in the long run for one of two reasons:
1) They're just random
2) The market catches up to them
The first one is when you have something like; "Bet on a home dog vs. a divisional opponent after not covering the previous week if his opponent is playing their second straight road game and scored more than 31 points their last game and the game is on MNF. This system is 12-0 the last 10 years." The more variables you thrown into a system, the more likely it is to be random, and the less it will be able to give you any insight going forward.
The other is something like "Bet on all home dogs on MNF". This has very few variables, so it's less likely to be random, but it became well known, so it's now factored into the market. You may find some kind of system that has a good track record, but there is no way to know whether it will continue to win going forward. I can flip a coin a thousand times and be able to pick out some kind of system where it performed well. "Tails was 49-27 when I flipped before 9am". "Heads was 49-27 when I flipped on Friday". I'm sure everyone can see that has no predictive value on what will happen during those times going forward.
In addition, systems NEVER take into consideration the number you are betting with. If your system is "take the Pats off a bye", and you're betting -3.5 when the market is 3, you're paying -110 for a ticket with a true market value of around +123. You have absolutely no chance to win going forward if you're doing that.