Point Blank – October 24, 2016
What a “Bettor Better Know” – NCAA #8…Bob Dylan week continues, because it should…
Did the Playoff landscape take a major jolt this weekend? It is a fascinating question in terms of understanding how the various pieces connect, and as I will delve into in a moment, Ohio State went from being the #2 favorite at one prominent bet shop to win the National Championship to … #2 still, even after that undistinguished loss at Penn State. That means a lot to sort through.
Bob Dylan week is going to continue here because it should, and by focusing on some outstanding covers the jukebox will help you to glide across these long reads with the beauty of his words, but not the occasional harshness of the voice (though there will be one later in the week that he takes the lead mic on). In the process of sorting through TCU/West Virginia there was a quote from Horned Frogs DE Josh Carraway that designated the button that would be pressed today- “I’ve been here a long time. There aren’t a lot of teams that have been able to whup up on TCU like that.”
?If we have a player from Texas talking about a “whup up”, then it means time for a little roadhouse, and also the opportunity to delve into Dylan as songwriter/craftsman, and beyond poet. So how about some classic work from Johnny Winter, in this setting with his brother Edgar and Rick Derringer also on board, for Highway 61 Revisited.
Item: Appreciating the West Virginia Defense (at least somebody in the Big 12 can play some)
And just when we were about to play coroner and certify that defense was officially dead in the Big 12, West Virginia is in the Playoff hunt largely because of an ability to make stops. How real can this get? Non-conference wins over Missouri and Brigham Young are not special, but do rate as being “just good enough” should the Mountaineers sweep through the Big 12. And if their defense keeps playing the way that is has been that may well happen, so time to bring that group front and center. Is it possible in a league that often makes one feel as though they are watching flag football, that Tony Gibson has figured it out?
Gibson has bounced around the landscape, serving as WVU DBs coach from 2001-06, before stints with Rich Rodriguez at both Michigan and Arizona, and a season with Pittsburgh, before coming back to Morgantown to coach the safeties in 2013, and then taking over as DC the past three season.
Let’s start with the market projection tool, comparing the number of points WVU was expected to allow in the three Big 12 games, vs. what actually transpired:
Markets/Scoreboard
Kansas St 26.5 16
Texas Tech 39.5 17
TCU 30 10
Across those 12 quarters they have held to opposition to 52.5 fewer points than the projection, a healthy 17.5 per game. And there were no flukes involved – Kansas State was limited to 17 first downs and 286 yards; Texas Tech 20 and 379; and TCU 18 and 300. Compare that the Mountaineers allowed in Lubbock to what Oklahoma just did, which I will get to in a moment, and there is plenty to see (and note that Saturday’s 34-10 loss by TCU was the worst league defeat for the Horned Frogs since joining the Big 12).
Is this finally someone coming to grips with those Big 12 spread attacks? Let’s look at it from the other side of the ball, a couple of coaches accustomed to being the attackers on offense, First WVU head man Dana Holgorsen - “What we do defensively is hard for me to attack. That’s why we do what we do. It’s good against the spread. ‘Gibby’ does a great job getting those guys motivated and playing hard. That’s the key: Being able to adjust and disguise and get lined up quick against all these up-tempo offenses.”
And now Texas Tech’s Kliff Kingsbury, after his team was “whupped up” on last Saturday - “They don’t allow any easy access throws. They cover you up on all those quick screens. They fly down to take them away. In the run game, they keep a six-man box, and there’s always a free runner coming at you who is a sure tackler. All three of the linebackers they had last year are playing in the NFL. Some of the guys who were in there Saturday will be playing at that level as well.”
Just how good has that defense been by comparison? We’ll head to Oklahoma/Texas Tech’s historic Saturday night in a moment for that, but first to place West Virginia into perspective in the big picture, as well as a few others…
Item: What now, for Ohio State
Last week the lead topic dealt with just how fragile paths to Championships can be, Clemson being far more fortunate than good in escaping vs. N. C. State. The Ohio State path has now been altered, and it was again something outside of football’s usual flow in play. The Buckeyes led 21-14 with 12:00 with remaining, and here was the production over those final dozen minutes:
Plays/Yards/Points
Ohio St 21 81 0
Penn St 9* -11* 10
- Includes 3 kneel-downs for (-13)
Naturally the final three Penn State plays don’t go into my database, even though they will count through all official tracking sources. In this instance their extremity both penalizes the PSU offense far too much, and gives too much reward to the OSU defense (Mike Leach was even worse on Saturday night, which I will get to in a moment). But the gist is a simple one – the Nittany Lions got an improbable 10 points out of the mix, blocking a punt to set up a FG attempt, and then returning that blocked FG for a TD.
But now the intriguing part – here is how the Westgate Superbook adjusted their NCAA Future’s prices after Saturday’s outcomes -
Alabama 8/5
Ohio St 3/1
Michigan 5/1
Louisville 7/1
Washington 7/1
Clemson 8/1
WVU 40/1
What’s going on here? The belief that Ohio State still gets in the mix by sweeping out, which would include beating Michigan (the Westgate has the Buckeyes available for betting at -5 in that head-to-head). But is this correct thinking? Does a 1-loss Big 10 team get the nod above an unbeaten Clemson, Washington or West Virginia? That may well sort itself out quickly, with all three of those unbeaten teams facing genuine road challenges this week, but there is a perverse part of me that hopes they remain unblemished until the committee begins meeting, to cause some squirming.
On the immediate agenda is the fact that Ohio State now joins the “style points parade” with Louisville, which can be a dangerous thing for someone like Urban Meyer. I will be watching closely to see how the markets react this week because there are a couple of genuine notions that add a wrinkle, like Meyer’s own admission that - “Every goal is still alive (but) we’re not a great team right now.”
Plus the fact that next up is a game in which style points might not be all that easy to accumulate anyway…
Item: Northwestern stayed on the gas (though driving into the ditch on occasion)
Time for some follow-up from last Monday, when it was difficult to properly sort through the pacing that Northwestern played at in dumping Michigan State. The question was whether the Wildcats had necessarily sped things up, or if the Spartans just plain stink on defense, and the conclusion was that it was likely a little of both. Now there have been additional post-mortems for both teams, and those answers can be conformed – Northwestern has found another gear on offense, while the Spartans have fallen in a way that was difficult to anticipate, and confounds attempts at a power ratings reconciliation.
The Wildcats went from an unexpected 83 snaps vs. Michigan State to 88 in Saturday’s win over Indiana, some Big 12 tempo in Big 10 country, Clayton Thorson throwing three TD passes for the second straight game. Pat Fitzgerald laid it out this way afterwards - "Without a doubt, (the difference) is the way we've prepared. We really had to change gears with the way we practiced and worked out, a spring-ball type mentality."
But now comes the delicate part in terms of setting a proper rating – this may not have been a case of going faster to take advantage of great talent, but rather using pace to get the most out of limited personnel. The Northwestern offense has made plays more through schemes and designs than ability in those two games, and in particular note that those 88 plays only produced just 408 yards vs. Indiana. For a real, “whoa” moment, the Wildcats had 371 yards in the first half, when the Hoosier defense was on its heels, but only 37 the rest of the way, never getting a snap inside the Indiana 40-yard line.
There are multiple takeaways here. First is that a team with a veteran QB playing fast can move the chains and have some ball control against a young Ohio State defense, which may make it difficult for the Buckeyes to get full game control on Saturday. Second is that there are some reasons to like the 2016 Indiana defense, in particular in-game adjustments that have been far better than in the past.
Which makes for a proper segue to go to Saturday night in Lubbock, when there just wasn’t any defense at all…
Item: It shouldn’t be possible for two teams to gain 854 yards in the same game
The odds of two teams playing a college football game and each of them finishing with exactly 854 yards would be beyond lottery, given the history of the sport. Football game flows can’t have 28.5 yards gained per minute. They just can’t. Patrick Mahomes threw for 734 yards and five TDs and wasn’t even close to having the best QB numbers on the field, Baker Mayfield just shattering through the models with 545 yards and seven TD passes on only 36 attempts, with no interceptions.
There have been multiple takes here in the past about the disaster that has been the Texas Tech defense in the Kliff Kingsbury era – the Red Raiders have already lost 13 games in his 3+ seasons in which they scored 30 points or more. But nothing came close to Saturday’s fiasco, when the Sooners averaged 12 yards per play when two late kneel-downs are extracted (by the way, those went for a -5 yards each; I am not sure what is going on across that front, and we sill aren’t down to Mike Leach yet).
Games like that are not easy for coaches to talk about afterwards. Let’s start with Oklahoma DC Mike Stoops, from a program that once took pride in defense - “I don’t know. We’ll see. We got no choice. We can only go up from here. Just total breakdowns -- technique, guys running post routes wide open. I’ve never seen that in my whole life. Never seen that many guys open before.”
Now let’s set some perspective. Oklahoma allowed 59 points and 854 yards vs. the same offense on the same field in which West Virginia gave up 17 and 379. In fact, through three Big 12 games the Mountaineers have only allowed 43 points and 955 yards. The Sooners topped 43 with 1:47 remaining in the third quarter on Saturday night; the Red Raiders with 9:24 left in the game.
Could Kingsbury offer anything? Not really - “Yeah, just I think the law of averages (says) we could get one (stop) but we didn’t. They scored on every drive except the one they took a knee on at the end. So that’s that. And really didn’t even get them in third down, I don’t think, in the second half. So they did a tremendous job on first and second down making big plays.”
And just image in Samaje Perine had played for Oklahoma?
The question becomes what Tech can do from here, because it is only going to get tougher for that defense, which still has the play the likes of TCU (136 points the last two meetings in the series), Texas (79), Oklahoma State (115) and Baylor (111). The Tech players already had their bye week, so it is quite a physical grind ahead, and how Kingsbury and DC David Gibbs keep that unit willing to at least try to compete will be a major challenge.
Item: UTSA/UTEP went deep into the night, yet…
For more perspective on how unique Oklahoma/Texas Tech was, UTEP and UTSA played five overtimes on Saturday night, and produced 101 points and 972 yards.
Item: About those Washington State’s kneel-downs
Now more about the theme of teams dropping their QBs back further than usual for kneel-down plays out of the victory formation, something that screwed up box scores a bit in the past, but really screwed up a few on Saturday. It has been customary for these plays to lose 2-3 yards when the QB would take the snap from center, which made for some uniformity, and also caused minimal damage if you didn’t sort through. But in the shotgun days you do need to parse those plays carefully out.
Washington State had three such snaps at the end of Saturday night’s win over Arizona State, and they went for a -26 yards. That has substantial impact both across the individual box score, and even the season rushing stats. The Cougars do not deserve that penalty to their offense, and the Sun Devils certainly did not earn the positives those plays add to their defensive charts. But if any coach if going to take even those traditional game-enders and add his own special touch, it would be Leach.
Item: Joe Williams came out of retirement
Washington’s place in the Playoff hunt takers center stage this week with a trip to Utah, the Utes being one of the few teams in the Pac 12 that can match the Huskies in terms of physical play in the trenches. A week ago my narrative would have been “while Utah can hold its own up front, the skill players aren’t there to get over the hump against this class”. The question is whether that is still the narrative now, and the answer is I don’t know, because rating RB Williams is so damn difficult.
Williams ran all over UCLA on Saturday, to the tune of 29 carries for 332 yards and four TDs, the scores including bursts of 64 yards, 55 and 43. That was a Heisman Trophy game, and it would certainly indicate the Utes have a big-time guy that can be a factor this week. The problem is that this is also the Williams that “retired” from football in early September, when his season got off to a slow start, only 22 carries for 75 yards in the first two games, having been demoted down the depth chart after losing a key fumble vs. BYU. Williams said that the sport was not fun anymore, then added -
"Knowing how my body's been these past couple months, where I'm at mentally and physically, I'm not at the point where I can compete at the level I need to for the team and everybody. I feel as though this is the right decision. I'm going to miss it, of course. These guys are my family and I love these boys to death. But it's for the best interests."
Had Williams not re-appeared, his Utah career would have gone into the record books at 553 yards and three TDs. Now in just two games since returning it has been 501 yards and five scores. So of course it begs the question - how real is this? I don’t have an answer. There wasn’t much in the Williams background to suggest this high of a ceiling – he started out at Connecticut in 2012, then had a stint at ASA College in Brooklyn, before heading west. Can there be some magic here? If there is, it can be that because he is already 23 yards old, he brings a physical maturity and toughness that can be a factor. There is also the magic of the rest of the team believing in him, especially as they get presented with the opportunity Saturday brings. This is a terrific human interest story, but also probelmatic handicapping.
And for even more on that front…
Item: The return of Gunner Kiel
The Cincinnati season was on the verge of becoming a big yawn after the Bearcats opened 3-3, decisively losing conference games to Houston, South Florida and Connecticut by a combined 60 points. There would still be the chance to get enough wins for an unexciting bowl trip, but what could possibly happen to get the spirit of the players back into the game during their bye week? Gunner Kiel happened, and much like the Williams story above, it makes for a power ratings challenge.
Kiel was a highly-regarded recruit (several services rated him the #1 QB coming out of high school in 2011) who began his career at Notre Dame, where his late uncle Blair was a star, but never played before transferring to Cincinnati. He exploded on the scene with six TD passes vs. Toledo in his first game as a Bearcat, and in his first two seasons Kiel threw for over 6,000 yards, with 50 TD Passes.
But then the plot twists began. Kiel did not accompany the Bearcats to a bowl game vs. San Diego State last December, an event in which Cincinnati was surprisingly trounced 42-7, showing almost no interest in competing. Then came the somewhat shocking depth chart at the end of spring practice, Kiel down at #3, behind Hayden Moore and Ross Trail. So what happened during the bye week, off of that disappointing 3-3 opening, conference championship hopes already gone? Some of the veteran players went to Tommy Tuberville and asked him to give Kiel another shot. From Tuberville - “This is their football team. They said ‘Coach – we want Gunner to play’. I said so do I. I’m not going to give anyone a starting spot. I said I’ll tell you what we’ll do – we’ll make it very competitive.”
So Tuberville created an open QB battle, letting each of the them work with the first team, something Kiel had not been able to do in a while, and he showed enough spark to get the call vs. East Carolina. Kiel then went out and threw for 348 yards and four TDs, without an interception.
So what happens now? Might this energize the Bearcats to go hard the rest of the way, instead of what could have been a lot of lethargy down the stretch? There may be something to see here. Kiel has NFL size, with the arm strength and the release, if his head is on the right way. This is an opportunity for him to turn around his football life. And the fact that the players took this to Tuberville might indicate the way the Bearcats feel about him. There is a lot of reading between the lines ahead…
Item: When did Marshall become the blundering Herd (time to throw a yellow flag indeed)
I have also been doing a lot of reading between the lines to figure out just what the hell has happened to Marshall, and you can include some odds makers and bookmakers doing the same thing, after one of the biggest NCAA mid-season moves you will ever see took place last week, Charlotte being bet from +17 all the way down to +7.5 vs. the Thundering Herd, before it trickled back up to +8 at kickoff. And the spread was never really in doubt, the 49ers winning outright 27-24.
Marshall entered this season off of campaigns of 10-4, 13-1 and 10-3, all three capped with bowl wins and covers, and it appeared to be business as usual, with Doc Holliday fielding another team that could compete for the CUSA title. But after opening with a meaningless 62-0 rout of Morgan State the Week #2 performance vs. Akron was shockingly bad, so much so that it was one of the lead topics here in that Monday review.
Since then it has been a mess, so much so that adjusting the power ratings has been a major challenge because not all that much had changed on paper – this was not a case of a bunch of injuries wrecking a team. So consider this adjustment – when the Thundering Herd played at Charlotte last season they closed as -17, and rolled 34-10. That means the equivalent of being about -20 on a neutral field, or more than two full TDs above what a neutral field price would have made them vs. the 49ers on Saturday.
Marshall was slightly outplayed in the game, with an Eye Test calling the talent of the teams close to even. But here is what is supposed to happen when the veteran team at home with a winning legacy faces an upstart – they mentally take control when the game pressure builds. What transpired instead? Marshall drove the ball into Charlotte territory on each of the final six possessions, yet failed to score a single point. The favored team at home is not supposed to do that. The Thundering Herd were sloppy, instead of efficient, and that may well be the root cause for the downfall.
Marshall is dead last in penalty yards per game this season, checking in at 94.5. Last season the Herd were #109. In 2014 they were #126 (of 128). Hidden across that recent success is that they were playing a lot of sloppy football, and had enough talent to overcome it. That may well be the starting point for the 2016 difficulties, and of course if penalties are a problem there are all sorts of other discipline issues that show up in subtle ways.
The complete Point Blank Archive
@PregamePhd (a work in progress, feedback appreciated)