Point Blank – October 21, 2016
The Viking DL is creating a Desolation Row…On Understanding Army Football (and why Navy and Air Force are in far different places these days)…
With a lot of focus this week on the quality of play in the OL across the NFL, naturally the microscope is out for the play of the defensive fronts as well, and in particular what aspect of personnel/scheme is the catalyst for the various pass rushes. Since there is a matchup for Sunday that features some of those elements that becomes the lead today, and also some notes on the NCAA front, and why Army should not be viewed the same as Air Force or Navy these days.
The specific focus will be the Minnesota Vikings, not just for playing great defense overall but how they are getting it done, a deep mix up front that even without Sherriff Floyd, who will return soon, has turned the battles in the trenches into a “Desolation Row” for opposing offenses.
So as Bob Dylan week continues, with a likely carry-over into Monday/Tuesday, we go to some of his most deft lyrical dancing, and who better to represent the nuances behind the words than The Grateful Dead, this one from Albany in 1990, Bob Weir singing it like he wrote it, which again is what magical blend of great art and great artists can create -
Now the moon is almost hidden
The stars are beginning to hide
The fortune-telling lady
Has even taken all her things inside
All except for Cain and Abel
And the hunchback of Notre Dame
Everybody is making love
Or else expecting rain
And the Good Samaritan, he’s dressing
He’s getting ready for the show
He’s going to the carnival tonight
On Desolation Row
Item: How many times is Carson Wentz going to get hit this week?
I am going to make this the lead topic because of a unique twist while putting together this week’s NFL Podcast (there is a link to it at the end of today’s sermon) – Minnesota -2.5 was set to be the BEST BET at the end, and while we were in the process of recording the marketplace lit up the board on the Vikings, ending with a painted -3. That was a big half-point to lose, but the logic behind the concept does connect to some notions that were discussed here earlier in the week, so let’s go to those details.
A big focus on the Vikings back in the summer preview was on the experience of the coaching staff, and while some of the emphasis went to the new faces on offense, on the other side of the ball DC George Edwards is in NFL season #19, DL coach Andre Patterson also #19, LB coach Adam Zimmer #11 and secondary coach Jerry Gray #21. That matters, especially as the franchise has done a savvy job of adding quality personnel.
This week the emphasis goes to the DL. The Vikings came into the season believing they had one of the deepest units in the league, and even with Floyd having missed significant time the unit has not skipped a beat. It is not just depth in terms of keeping players fresh, but also in working individual matchups, and this staff is as good as any in the sport at finding those matchup opportunities.
The overall numbers naturally tell the tale – we can go to folks like the Football Outsiders, who rate the defense #2 overall, #2 against the pass and #4 against the run. We can use traditional statistics, which shows them #1 in Yards Per Play (4.4), #1 in percentage of drives that allow points (21.1), tied for #3 in sack percentage (8.7), and a significant but underlooked #2 in penalty yards given away (only 231, compare that to the league average of 355). But let’s focus in on that DL.
Of the 19 Minnesota sacks, 17 have come from the guys up front, #1 in the NFL. It tells us about the athleticism of this group and their ability to finish when they get the opportunity, and is also a tribute to keeping bodies fresh, to have the energy for those finishes. The defense has been on the field for 324 plays, here is how well they have been able to distribute them across the group –
Everson Griffen 300
Brian Robison 291
Linval Joseph 204
Danielle Hunter 200
Tom Johnson 198
Shamar Stephen 153
Shariff Floyd 25*
The Vikings can give starters minutes to seven different players across the four positions, and Justin Trattou can also get on the field every once in a while. That gives a good coaching staff a lot of options to work with.
What makes the matchup important this week is what happened to the Philadelphia OL playing without Lane Johnson at Washington last Sunday. It was an ugly performance in which the Eagles offense only managed six points, 12 first downs and 239 yards, Carson Wentz getting sacked on 17.2 percent of his dropbacks, nearly triple the league average rate. A prime culprit was rookie Halapoulivaati Vaitai, Johnson’s replacement, who was charged with allowing 2.5 sacks. So let’s set some perspective on the OL by going to the folks at Pro Football Focus
Three-fifths of the Eagles’ offensive line is functioning at maximum efficiency. The loss of right tackle Lane Johnson to a 10-game suspension for repeated drug test failures instantly cast uncertainty on the unit, however. Top backup Dennis Kelly was traded in the offseason, leaving a major gaping hole. Rookie fifth-round pick Halapoulivaati Vaitai, certainly could not fill it. The rookie gave up two sacks, a hit, and two hurries in 29 dropbacks, earning a 32.0 overall grade. Jason Kelce’s form is also becoming a concern. The Eagles’ center is having a terrible season, having already committed six penalties, and ranks dead last in our center grades.
Can the Vikings take advantage of that OL? The pieces would seem to be in place. So while the value point on the matchup did get away, the long-term goal should be to get as much focus as possible into some of the trench warfare that will be going on the remainder of the season. There is more than meets the eye to that part of the sport, despite the fact that as more passes than ever get thrown, the Sports Mediaverse focuses more and more on the skill positions.
Meanwhile keep a close eye on the Viking defense – because of the depth up front this is a group that figures to get better, instead of wearing down, as the season progresses.
Item: On understanding Army football
I am going to go deeper into another podcast item for the week, with #315 North Texas (Noon Eastern) posted as a Best Bet against Army, with +18 or better the value point, that one also meriting full "In the Sights..." status. Understanding the football program at West Point is a deep dive topic that would make for a long individual piece, but I will shorten here to get to the heart of the matter.
A little over a year ago I went into some of the details as a lead topic, and the folks in West Point have come a realization that down-grading the schedule was going to be a necessary move. There is a subtle aspect to that which I believe comes into play on Saturday. I am not sure that any football program goes through the rigors of what the players do at Army, which means a lot of concentration needed to academics during football season. As such, the downgrading of the schedule can bring an unexpected impact – the Black Knights may not go all that hard against some of the weaker opponents, using those periods to focus more on their classwork.
In 2015 Army lost outright to Fordham, and barely beat Bucknell (21-14). Two years back it was a loss to Yale. Back in 2012 they literally got stoned 23-3 by Stony Brook. Less than a month ago they lost outright laying -13 to a bad Buffalo team. I believe there is a logic in play – the opportunity to face Air Force, Notre Dame or Navy later will bring a high degree of energy, but by comparison a game such as this week’s vs. North Texas just will not generate much spark. This is the time for extra library work.
What sets this one up in particular is the cycle ahead – next Saturday is a quadruple-revenge setting vs. Wake Forest, made even more bitter because each of the last two defeats was by three points. Then a home game vs. Air Force, before facing Notre Dame in San Antonio. That is a major three-week stretch of “football”, and the anticipation of that can certainly lead to a lesser focus for this Saturday.
It is a much different story at Air Force and Navy these days, where competing in a conference brings an entirely different element to the football programs. Not only are they in conferences, but they are grouped into leagues in which they can be competitive, and that does bring an upside for a good football player that wants to both get a great education, and serve his country.
There is more to the value notion both overall, and specifically for this game, a key being that the markets have not caught down to the Army level of play, with the Black Knights not having a winning ATS season since 2008, going 34-47 since. There is also uncertainty at the crucial FB role in the option packages, with leading rusher Jeff Davidson not having practiced yet this week because of a shoulder injury, while one of the prime back-ups at the position, Darnell Woolfolk, has missed the last two games with a sprained ankle, and has also yet to return to full participation. And there remains the power rating issue of what looked like a dynamic win by the Black Knights at UTEP not really meaning all that much because the Miners did not game plan for it, as noted in the Monday Review from that week.
A n added key is something that the reading-between-the-lines brought during the week – unlike UTEP, North Texas is game planning for the Army option. This is an opportunity game for the Mean Green, who suffered through a lost season in 2015 that included Dan McCarney being fired in mid-October. But many of the same players that suffered through that 1-11 embarassment were also a part of the team that went 9-4 and won a bowl game in 2013, and coming out of their bye week with a realistic chance to be bowl eligible this season has a buzz around the program. The added prep time also meant an opportunity to study the Army designs, and it is something they have accepted, with new HC Seth Littrell talking bout the matchup in terms of how well his team defended Marshall in a 38-21 win in their last game –
“We did a tremendous job scheming up their run game, which is similar to what Army does. Our guys were disciplined enough to be in position and their gaps. When the runner came to them, they made plays. We did a much better job of tackling overall as a defense. It was our most complete game.”
Not enough time to bring that into the Podcast, but there are some items worthy of incorporating into your thought processes, both this week and into the future.
Item: Saturday night showdown in Wrigley
We’ve got a beauty coming up in Chicago on Saturday night, Clayton Kershaw taking the mound to try to stave off elimination for the Dodgers, and a full set of what would ordinarily be “Game 7 Rules” in play for the managers – with every reliever fresh, there could be a lot of maneuvering in the late innings.
In order to make things easier to sort through I will have a separate MLB edition up on Saturday morning, so that this game does not get lost in the shuffle of the weekend football thread. For now I am a little surprised at the range of the current trading, with nothing lower than Los Angeles -129 out there (when asked for a projection from some folks across the counter last night I offered a -123), but I do not see anything to act on. Much more to come on that one tomorrow.
In the Sights, Sunday NFL…
It will be Team Totals leading the ticket this week, as a couple of running themes continues, with #454 Philadelphia Under 17.5 (1:00 Eastern) and #473 New England Over 27.5 (4:25 Eastern) going into pocket.
The substance of the Philadelphia handicap begins with the lead topic from this column, a difficult matchup for Carson Wentz to get into a rhythm against not only a deep and talented Vikings defense, but one that comes in with added prep time to do some tweaking. Making it even more difficult for the Eagles to get points on the board will be the limited opportunities, these two teams #30 (Minny) and #32 (Philly) in SPS, with neither tempo likely to change. The Minnesota game plan is to not give any easy points away with offensive miscues, so on a blustery afternoon that will bring wind gusts that will get into the 20’s, Philadelphia will be hard-pressed to find points.
The weather is much different across the state in Pittsburgh, where Tom Brady will have little win to contend with on an ideal football day, and that means time to step in again with an offense that is the most difficult to game plan for in the NFL, and will only get better by the week. The dynamics of the TE duo has been a topic here multiple times, and here is a recent take fro Bill Belichick that goes to the heart of the matter even more - “The tight end position is, probably after quarterback, the hardest position to play in our offense. That’s the guy who does all the formationing. The running back is usually in the backfield. The receivers are receivers. But the tight ends could be in their tight end location, they could be in the backfield, they could be flexed. They could be in the wide position. To formation the defense, those are the guys you’re going to move. It’s moving the tight ends that changes the defensive deployment.”
The Pittsburgh defense is not well-set to deal with either the talent or the complexity of the Patriots, having to sort through injuries across all levels, at DL, LB and in the secondary. With far fewer weapons available the Dolphins rolled for over 200 yards both running and passing last week, in particular taking advantage of the absence of DE Cam Heyward (here is out again today), and Brady’s ability to tactically exploit weaknesses is second to none.
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