Point Blank – September 16
On NCAA Underdogs with Attitudes…Your personal space may mean more than you think (the Banana Republic days, and memories of weekends with “Sullivan”)…Time to get ahead of the curve on some NFL coaching patterns…
While yesterday’s discourse on the NCAA gridirons focused on some big chalk, this week’s board also brings the opportunity to delve into something else – underdogs that bring a unique pedigree. With so many fascinating notions in play it means a Saturday with a lot of game-watching ahead, so there will also be a detour about what the setting for that can mean over the long run.
Because the reminiscing is going to lead to a long read today I am going to plug the jukebox in to help you along, and there is a classic, written by Steve Goodman but best made known by Jimmy Buffet that is the ideal fit. Buffet has been using this one as the closer across the 2016 tour, the sagely crafted “Banana Republics”, written and sung by folks that know what it feels like to have those grains of sand underfoot. This was a few weeks ago in Houston -
First your learn the native customs
Soon a word of Spanish or two
You know that you cannot trust them
Because they know they can’t trust you
One of my all-time favorite verses from any song as it absolutely nails a sub-culture. I’ll get back to that in a moment, but first some NCAA football…
Item: When underdogs bring both bark and bite
This Saturday brings some fascination across so many fronts, and this is an ideal time to address the pedigree of underdogs, since it is so pertinent on this board, and also an important long-term factor.
You will notice that while trends are not discussed here all that much, when they are it is when there is an aspect of play that has some genuine merit. How coaches perform as underdogs is one of them, and note that when I track it will almost always bring two numbers – how the coach has fared ATS, and also SU in those same games. The second number absolutely matters because it is in the ability to win these games outright that we learn about the savvy to develop strategic game plans when the other team may be better, and also in terms of motivating the players. When a team takes the field believing they are going to win a game, more often than not they will play better than if they go out there just hoping to hang around.
A reason for bringing it into play this week is that there are some extremely high pedigree underdog settings, and that means getting coaches/teams in a role that is a rarity for them. I will isolate them, in rotation order, and note that all trackings are for non-bowl games -
Oregon (+3.5) at Nebraska
The Ducks have only been underdogs eight times across the last 7_ seasons, dating back to the beginning of the Chip Kelly era, and while the overall program may begin to decline under Mark Helfrich, noting the “era” aspect matters because the style of play on the field has not changed all that much. For Helfrich it has been a 4-0 ATS run in the underdog role, with three outright wins, and the Ducks beat the market expectations by 31 points across those games.
Here is an interesting side note, and the concept comes courtesy of Brad Powers, who I have the pleasure of doing the weekly NCAA podcast with (you’ll find a link at the end of today’s sermon). If we begin tracking 2010, Kelly’s second season in Eugene, since the first campaign had a lot of transition going on, Oregon is 14-1 ATS in all games lined in single digits, regardless of whether the favorite or the underdog. Does that tell us something about how the pace and conditioning of the Ducks provides an edge in competitive affairs? I don’t know; it would take much more study, but the fact that the spread was beaten by 167 points across those 15 games calls for that added study to take place.
Michigan State (+8) vs. Notre Dame
The Spartans are 18-8-1 ATS as underdogs under Mark Dantonio, winning 11 of the games outright. It is worth noting that the current fifth-year seniors are 7-1 ATS in the role, five of the successes being outright wins.
Oklahoma (+1.5) vs. Ohio State
Talk about a rarity of the role, the Sooners have not been underdogs on this field since 2000, a span of 90 games. Under Bob Stoops they are 14-7-1 ATS taking points, winning 11 of the games outright, and 2-0 as home underdogs, winning each.
This game brings us to the mindset notion of the settings, which is a significant part of the eventual outcomes – the high pedigree program can feel insulted in this role, and yes in 2016 every player and coach knows what the pointspread is. What is the mood around Norman?
From safety Steven Parker - “Being the underdog, it makes you want to fight harder, it makes you want to practice harder, makes you want to basically prepare more, prepare better.” And TE Mark Andrews - “I think we do well coming in as an underdog, I think it’s going to give us a chip on our shoulder.”
Quotes like that are not difficult to find for these settings, the key being that high level programs can do something positive with that motivation, while lesser weight classes can’t. Not all C teams have the ability to rise up to C+, or to B. Not all B teams have what it takes to get to B+ or A. But those of that A level will almost universally have the ability to get to A+; that is part of what got them to A in the first place.
Mississippi (+11) vs. Alabama
Ole Miss is 12-4 ATS as underdogs under Hugh Freeze, winning eight of the games outright. The Rebels failed the first time in the home dog role under Freeze, but have captured the last six, five of them being outright wins. Yet expect this line to keep climbing because of the double-revenge aspect to Nick Saban and Alabama, something that the marketplace will find irresistible. What matters here is that there really are two sides to the equation – the Crimson Tide are not in full control of the proceedings because this is an underdog of talent and pedigree, and the fact that they have beaten ‘Bama in each of the last two seasons brings a different element to the practice field in preparation.
Will these games be going into pocket? Only at the right prices. This is an instance in which the long-term handicapping lesson is more important than the individual games. Learn to recognize when an underdog is going to play without intimidation against a superior opponent, and you will find some outstanding value opportunities. What these games also provide are those shopping list opportunities – would I take a +4 with Oregon, +10 with Michigan State, +3 with Oklahoma or +13 with Mississippi? Yes. By getting the board into focus those decisions become easier to make, and by using the Pedigrees of Underdogs as a part of your arsenal that can help to set the focus.
Item: On those notions of space (Remembering “Sullivan”)
As promised from the Wednesday thread I will go off track from the direct betting boards for a moment, to answer a question about how to maintain the proper energy through these long and adventurous days and sports cycles. For me the personal workspace has an awful lot to do with it, and that is something that many of you may be able to tweak as well.
As noted in that thread, I would not trade my office for any in Las Vegas, and there is a backstory that is fun to tell. It has to do with “Sullivan”, in this instance the name not being changed to protect the innocent, but rather the guilty.
Back in the late 90’s I was hired by a racing organization based out of Puerto Rico to develop Sports Books into their OTB parlors as they grew across Latin America (their host country being the lone place on their map where sports betting was illegal). Out of convenience Panama City became the best place for a second home, and I kept a great apartment on the waterfront there for four years, terrific views of the ships lining up to enter the Pacific entrance of the Canal. Because the local race track was also getting a slot machine concession I was also hired by a casino group to oversee part of that development, and that led to the relationship with a gentleman I will refer to as Sullivan.
Sullivan is rather notorious in U.S. history, a solider in the Robert Vesco den of financial iniquity, and life changed for him when he has a major player in Watergate, his involvement being such that the Nixon administration had to get him out of the country quickly, and he never returned. Sullivan became a player across the Caribbean on a few fronts, and evolved into being a power broker in Panama. Because he was going to have a piece of the casino group for getting their paperwork rubber stamped, a relationship was struck, though not one that I would ever put the label of “friendship” on. Business is business.
Sullivan had a beach house about two hours west of Panama City, and that became a weekend getaway. The house sat up on a bluff overlooking the Pacific, and the main living area was what would ordinarily have been a barbecue pit. There was a tile floor, thatched roof, and what was built to be the fire-pit instead was the mounting for a large screen television, a satellite dish tucked back around the house. With comfortable furniture in place it became an all-day room, the house only used for sleeping at night, and the evenings were filled with his vodka-enhanced stories of many sordid adventures, some of them perhaps even true.
While by that time of life Sullivan was largely a used-up reprobate, I came to really enjoy that space, working on a laptop with the breezes blowing. So when the right house became available in Las Vegas, there was an attempt to recreate the concept; a notion of working al fresco much of the time (though that obviously does not happen in the summer heat here).
There will be no pictures of the space as I attempt to keep a notion of sanctuary in play, but we knocked an old and sturdy house around pretty good. The office is on the second floor, looking out over the golf course at the Las Vegas Country Club, most of a wall knocked out for double French doors that open to a balcony overlooking the course. The desk, an over-sized oak drafting table that I have had for 27 years, sits right at those doors, facing directly south, and many days are spent working open air with a terrific back-drop. Early mornings are not a problem here, beginning with wonderful light to motivate.
The interior took a lot of thought – the house was purchased from a designer, and part of the sale price was for her to help with the remodel. She brought in an absolute ace of a contractor, someone who could envision things and also make it happen. He lived in that very room while the remodel was taking place, to get a better feel for what we were trying to accomplish. The end result has been a tremendous fit to my lifestyle – while the frenzy of a football weekend is going on, there is the soothing notion of having a cathedral ceiling of banana tree bark with bamboo accents, and one entire wall made of custom shelving with bamboo, including the area for video monitors that allow them to be angled based upon where I happen to be in the room (when not at the desk games are watched from a sturdy old mission chair).
And that is that. The question from Wednesday provided the opportunity to think fondly back to those rather murky times in Panama, which all things considered brings a lot of good memories. Sullivan’s son was manager of the TGIFriday in the Marbella neighborhood of the city, and there was a “Pirate’s Table” in a back corner in which Sullivan and other ex-pats ruled; a place where we came and went as we pleased, with no check ever appearing. Perhaps one in five of the stories told from that table were true, but they were all interesting; Pre 9/11 the country was a haven for corrupt economic refugees, and still is to a lesser degree. But of all things I brought away from those years, the design for the workspace in my home was the most important.
And enough reminiscing; there is some more football to bet, after one more brief detour…
Item: Down the Stretch with the Cubs -200 Pool
It is crunch time now, the Cubs sitting on 41 as the day begins, and the anticipation of what someone has already called a “Spring Training” lineup for this afternoon will leave it there for a day. There are six folks still alive, with Saul Goodman owning the 41 but needing a perfect ride the rest of the way.
In the Sights, Sunday NFL…
One of the classic axioms in this endeavor is that the best time to bet on a trend is right as it is first happening. That may sound whimsical but there are some real foundations of logic, and that helps build into #284 Oakland/Atlanta Under (4:25 Eastern), with nothing lower than 49 out there this morning, and a legit opportunity for a shopper to find 49.5. I believe we can get ahead of the game with each of the coaches, and two defenses that will not be top tier, but will be better than they were in 2015, with value extending down to 48.
Dan Quinn and Jack Del Rio are defense-first guys, and one usually does not find the 49 range when that is the case. But they are transitioning teams from their predecessors, and markets can be slow to adjust because some of the past data still looks “fresh”. With both teams playing Over last week, there is even less reason to believe any kind of change is taking place. Here is where you can put your focus – Quinn had his team play Under to a 7-1 tune on the road in his first season, and in terms of pace the Falcons went from being #6 in SPS to #26. In the 2016 opener they were again at #26. Meanwhile for Del Rio the chance to control a game as a favorite was rare in 2015, but the Raiders did play 3-0-1 Under when favored. He also slowed things down dramatically, a team #8 in SPS in 2014 falling to #17, and much like the Falcons the 2016 opener was right at the 2015 level, again #17.
The Atlanta defense will get better this year because Quinn has brought in players that will fit his style. It will not be a good defense, but it has a chance to elevate to being near average, and this is enough in this range. Meanwhile there is an interesting upside in Oakland if the talent scouts have been correct, with nine first or second round draft picks in the starting lineup, and a couple of former first-rounders in reserves. The Raiders won’t be a good defense, but they can perhaps be a tick better than average, and that is also enough in this range.
We don’t see 49’s often with lower-tier tempo, but that shows the carry-over in reputation for these franchises. Quinn and Del Rio want to play it a different way, so this is a good timing point to take advantage.
In the Sights, NFL “Market Basket”…
Of all items to get marked down to the sale bin come Sunday morning, I did not expect #276 Carolina (1:00 Eastern) to be available with 13 as a win number now in several key precincts. When the week began I thought that a 13-point Panther victory would be a point spread loser, and the prospect of a 14 only being a push. With those numbers open it is time to get into play.
There will not be a worse scheduling dynamic for any team all season than what the 49ers have to go through here, not just traveling West to East across the time zones off of a Monday night game, but off of a Monday game that kicked off nearly two full hours later than usual. As noted here in the past, I believe the most physically challenging game for most teams is week #2, largely because there is not much contact in training camps these days, and the starters do not play extensively in the pre-season games. As such, the first week of real contact takes a toll, and to have the short recovery period exacerbated by travel makes this an extremely arduous setting.
This is not new for the 49ers, who had a similar lay-out to begin 2015, winning a Monday home game to open and then getting trampled 43-18 by the Steelers the ensuing Sunday, a game that was 29-3 heading into the fourth quarter. Now not only will Chip Kelly’s team be leg weary and ill-prepared for the particulars of this matchup, but it will also be a hungry and focused Carolina team they are running into. Yet the price point has become fair – San Francisco lost nine games by 14 points or more in 2015, and over the second half of the season the 49ers are +14 at Seattle, +6.5 at Chicago, +2.5 at Cleveland and +9 at Detroit. In that context the currently market offering for this one does qualify as a “bargain”.
For your listening pleasure (though not as easy on the ears as Buffet) -
Here are this week's podcasts for the NCAA -
And NFL -
The Point Blank 2016 NFL Team by Team Previews
The complete Point Blank Archive
@PregamePhd (a work in progress, feedback appreciated)