Point Blank – May 26
Will the Thunder keep Truckin’ in Oakland (and did the Warriors ever think their long trip would get this strange, turned from bowling ball to pin)…Jose Fernandez tops the Fantasy board today, and the MLB portfolio as well…
So who thought it would come to this, the Warriors facing elimination already in Game 5 at home? And this happening vs. a formerly erratic bunch that just a little over a month ago lost a playoff game outright at home to Dallas, despite being favored by -14 at tipoff. But as any serious followers of sport know, reality is a moving target – when we aim our financial arrows towards those scoreboard bullseye’s it is not just about adjusting for changing winds impacting the arrow’s flight, but the fact that the targets themselves are almost constantly shifting.
I believe there is a slight break in that process tonight – instead of being forced to earn our way by predicting basketball, there has been some help from the betting markets themselves. We can harken back to Spurs/Thunder Game 6, when the set-up here was “San Antonio can only be a road favorite in a parallel basketball universe”. Game 5 in Oakland brings elements of the same, from a market perspective.
With so much to sort through in this most unique matchup it is time to get to the Classic Jukebox for some background again, and as long as the Warriors remain alive the focus goes to the iconic music scene the Bay area became in the early days of Rock and Roll. The irony tonight is that what could have been held back as a theme song for them now plays to the other side – it is OKC that has been Truckin’, and Golden State caught on the wrong end of some of the lyrics.
Among the most legendary musical moments from the Bay area were the New Year’s Eve shows by the Grateful Dead at Winterland, some of them chaotic and musically sloppy, but perhaps in the moment that was as meant to be (talk about time and place...). For this one let’s go back to 1977 turning into 1978, and while the ending cuts off a bit abruptly, we are ever so fortunate this has survived at all over those many years -
Set up, like a bowlin' pin.
Knocked down, it gets to wearin' thin.
They just won't let you be, oh no.
Who would have thought the closing of that verse would have applied to the Warriors in this year’s playoffs?
Thunder/Warriors #5 – What may appear to have been hallucinations now have significant degrees of reality attached
Let’s go right to the market perceptions, and work from there. Golden State is mostly -7.5 right now, and trading back-and-forth at that level makes a general assumption that the Warriors are the superior team, several points beyond the home court advantage. This is despite the fact that the Thunder have out-scored them by 31 points across the first four games, evenly split at 96 minutes on each court. So time to sort through some of what can be a cannabis fog to get to pertinent realities inside of those numbers.
How about starting with the +/- for the Golden State key cogs in those last two defeats at Oklahoma City –
Minutes +/- Per 48
Green 69:29 -73 -50.4
Curry 68:44 -58 -40.4
Thompson 53:24 -55 -49.5
Rather shocking, aren’t they. Prior to tipoff on Sunday, the projections would have been deemed almost mathematically impossible. How much would you have bet if you were offered a prop that two of those big three would be out-scored by at least a point-per-minute across the two games?
Had it happened once it could be understood, especially in the bizarre 2016 playoffs, where blowouts have been so common. As great as the Thunder have been, they have suffered losses by 32 and 27 themselves. But it has now happened twice. I did not expect the second, seeing some elements of crescendo in Game 3 that I thought might not repeat, while also expecting to see some Golden State poise in fighting off the ropes. That absolutely did not happen on Tuesday night, and there are particular elements inside of that which demand focus.
Item – The Thunder won Game 1 at Golden State with Durant/Westbrook shooting 33 percent
Sub-Item – The Thunder won Game 4 by 24 at home with Durant/Westbrook shooting 39.2 percent
I believe this is the most substantive of the hallucinations. Had you been told prior to the opener that Durant/Westbrook would shoot 17-51, what is the projected outcome? Certainly not OKC winning the game. Yet the Thunder won, and exceeded the point spread by 13.5. Golden State closed -1.5 for Game 4, so what is the game projection if Durant/Westbrook shoot under 40 percent? Certainly not the Thunder shattering that point spread by 22.5.
This of course begs a key question – what would have happened in the opener if the two superstars shot better, and just how bad might Game 4 have been? If OKC shatters the market perceptions when the superstars shoot under 40 percent, it matters.
That leads to a key fundamental appreciation of what has happened in this series – this is not a case of some major pendulums swinging in one direction that could now reverse. Instead it is about a matchup of just where these teams are right now. The gap in shooting has not been all that wide, 45.6 percent for OKC to 44.4 for GS, but the Thunder are +27 on the boards, +6 in steals, +14 in blocked shots and +5 in turnover margin. Those are difficult categories for the Warriors to turn, because…
Item – Small-ball brings realities
I will save some of this for a more general post-mortem when the playoffs are over, but as noted here in the past, notions of placing Golden State among the ranks of the all-time great teams have to factor in the current state of the NBA. The Warriors play small-ball brilliantly, but have also had the bonus of that tactic being a terrific tool at a current low-ebb of overall play, especially in terms of talented big men. There have not been many teams the past two seasons that could realistically challenge what Steph Curry and the gang have done. OKC can, and the one thing that has been evident in this series is that the Warriors have simply looked small.
The Thunder are just a little bigger across the board, but they are bigger while also being just as quick. Curry has struggled to find a shooting rhythm both beyond the arc, and in finishing near the basket, because the Thunder defenders are connected just a bit more than he is accustomed to, which has altered his rhythm. Meanwhile Green has simply been awful the last two games (2-16 from the field with 10 turnovers) because he is accustomed to either being too physical for smaller and quicker players, or two quick for bigger and more physical opponents. OKC does not offer him either matchup, Green instead having to work against bigger players that are also as athletic as he is. And at least in recent weeks, bring as much fight to the ring.
Item – And so…
Part of what leads to the notion of bringing up “fight to the ring” is this great image captured from Game 4, Curry looking dazed, his mouthpiece dangling, much like a fighter on his way to the corner after he had been knocked battered into the ropes in the previous round by a bigger and stronger opponent. It is the sort of daze the Warriors as a team have been in – this has not been a case of them failing in the moment so much as the other side simply beating them. Focus on this for a moment.
The Thunder have teased greatness in the past because of the natural abilities of their superstars, but those stars not always bringing the team commitment and grit that goes beyond personal statistics, and leads to championships. We have been seeing a change in that regard over this past cycle. Durant has had three blocked shots in each of the last two games. He only averaged 1.2 blocks per game during the regular season, and only had three in the entire San Antonio series. Meanwhile Westbrook has 15 steals in the series, 3.8 per game, nearly double his average from the regular season. When those two bring that kind of full-court effort, this is a difficult team to beat, and naturally an even more difficult team to punch out.
Does Steve Kerr have some tactical options? Not a hell of a lot – he has to rely on his team doing what they do, and doing it at a very high level. Curry is capable of explosions, as we saw in Game 2. But I believe there is something to be said for the Warriors choosing to not practice yesterday, Kerr’s take being – “We don’t need to be on the court today. This is a day to get refreshed.” His playbook may not have any counters left, so it all comes down to basketball execution. That makes the financial decision a little #719 Oklahoma City at +7 or better, the betting markets sitting in the wrong place for the most current of realities. The Warriors are capable of rising up and playing a special game, but the investment comfort is in knowing that it will indeed take a special game by them to lose this ticket, which means solid percentages in play.
About Last Night…
The Angels and Rangers produced 24 runs on 32 hits in a game in which Mike Trout/Albert Pujols/Prince Fielder went 0-13 with five strikeouts. Just another day on the diamonds…
In the Sights…
I think Jose Fernandez is “getting it”. His raw stuff is simply ridiculous, having struck out 35.9 percent of all batters faced so far, and note that only six pitchers have finished at higher than 30 percent over the past six seasons, the highest being 33.8. Over his last three starts it has been 31 strikeouts vs. only 12 hits allowed, a 3-0/0.90 outcome buoyed by a brilliant 41.3 percent K rate, and the fact that Fernandez has won back-to-back road games absolutely matters, with his Home/Away splits something that will continue to correct. So with the markets again not pricing this series properly, getting him in this range calls for #963 Miami First Five Innings this afternoon (1:10 Eastern), even money showing early, and now even an underdog return in some key precincts, the announcement of Giancarlo Stanton sitting out again causing more impact than it should (as noted yesterday his current slump has been so horrific, the latest stretch being 3-28 with 18 strikeouts, that sitting him down should not cost anything in terms of line adjustment).
I will stay with the early stretches here because Fernandez can be particularly effective against a lineup that lacks experience against him (only three Rays starters have faced him, going 2-11 with three strikeouts), yet there is also the issue that because Tampa will swing and miss so much (#27 in MLB in strikeouts at 24.8 percent), the Fernandez pitch count will grow to the point at which seven innings might be his max. With David Phelps and A. J. Ramos both working out of the Marlins bullpen last night, facing a quick turnaround before this early start calls for eliminating the latter stages.
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