Point Blank – May 24
Reacting to an NBA Acid Trip (Steve Kerr does not need to look for White Rabbits to pull out of a hat, just keep it calm)… What do we do with Harvey/Strasburg this time…You just gotta love Ichiro…
For all of the great discussion in the post-column threads during these NBA playoffs, I do not have to search back through them very hard to know that there hasn’t been any speculation at all presented bout how great a Russell Westbrook/Kyle Lowry one-on-one might be in the Finals. What would have been a waste of time to ponder, because of the lone slot it seemed to occupy on the playoff roulette wheel, has now entered the realm of possibility, the Thunder advancing to this stage because they are awfully good, the Raptors still alive because Tyrron Lue and the Cavaliers are rather fragile.
Unexpected results are a benefit to the savvy handicapper because chaos can shake betting markets from their foundations. I believe it already has disrupted the modeling for Game 4 in Oklahoma City this evening, bettors around the globe having witnessed basketball’s version of an acid trip on Sunday night, with so many psychedelic aspects of the Thunder’s improbable demolition of what some just a week ago were willing to call the NBA’s best team ever.
If one of the all-time great teams can indeed be losing 117-80 after three quarters, it is a welcome to the head-trip of sport, showing the range of possibilities that exist. Narrowing possibility into probability now becomes the task, and it has led to the dream jukebox pairing that I was not not sure would match up in these playoffs, but now has. So with any Golden State game day focus on the iconic Rock and Roll that was born in the Bay area some of you can probably guess what is coming next – if the task is to sort through a basketball game that resembled an LSD dreamscape, cue Grace Slick and what by then had become Jefferson Starship, live from Winterland in 1975 -
When logic and proportion
Have fallen sloppy dead
And the White Knight is talking backwards
And the Red Queen’s off with her head
Yes, that is the Sunday night that was. But just how much of that relates to the Tuesday that will be? The betting markets may still be trippin’…
Warriors/Thunder #4 – Golden State does not have to beat the Game #3 OKC team (we may never see the likes of that bunch again)
If there was enough time and space it would be fun to run through the lyrics of “White Rabbit” and connect them up to the various basketball subplots of Game 3 (only a hookah-smoking caterpillar would have Andre Roberson making as many 3-point shots as Steph Curry, in less than half the attempts). But there are better ways to spend the time as numbers continue to flash across the board. It is interpretation that matters.
The markets have made theirs. Let’s call Golden State -2.5 the most common closer for Game 3, although there was a fair amount of -3 out there. If one of the greatest teams in history is -2.5, and loses, they became an almost hallucinogenic dream of the Zig Zag crowd, the rare chance to bet on the pedigree of such a great team to respond. That would ordinarily mean at least -3, but more likely -3.5, for Game 4 (when the Warriors lost as -2 at Cleveland in Game 3 last June, they were -4 on the same court two days later). Instead Pinnacle and many key precincts are at -1.5 as I write this, a full basket lower. Did the extreme of Sunday’s result cause that kind of distortion? Instead of betting Zig Zag, they are using the rolling papers.
It can be understood, because markets will consistently attach the most weight to what they saw last. But how much do you attach to that surrealistic pillow of an outcome? Consider this table -
Warriors “+/- Per 48” in Game 3
Curry -63.0
Thompson -81.3
Barnes -18.0
Green -64.9
Bogut -36.8
In other words, at the rate the scoreboard was recording Klay Thompson’s minutes on the court, had the full game been played that way OKC would have won by 81 points. Not even Ken Kesey ever had something strong enough to induce that. So what does one do with the result? Come down from the trip and assess the realities.
Billy Donovan and Kevin Durant should be credited with having made a savvy adjustment on offense. In the Friday column leading up to the game it was noted how much the Warrior defense had disrupted Durant’s flow, to the point at which he was averaging a turnover for every 6:13 of court time in give games against them this season. But with two additional days off between Games 2-3 there was ample time for film study, and the Thunder spacing was much better. Durant was significantly calmer with the ball, correctly visualizing the passing lanes when a shot was not available, and he went on to score more than a point per minute (33 in 32:14), while only turning the ball over once.
Some of that spacing came from a Donovan gamble, a small lineup with Serge Ibaka at the #5 slot, a grouping that had only played for 51 minutes all season. That helped to set the spacing, and create the best offensive rhythm either team has had in this series. The Thunder used that rhythm to make half of their FG attempts (46-92), and were aggressive in going to the basket, creating 37 FT attempts, of which 33 were made.
Beyond that, it was an example of a pendulum breaking away and crashing into a wall. Roberson and Dion Waiters were improbably effective, while the Warriors were shooting a miserable 10-33 from 3-point range, and for all the talk about Draymond Green’s attempt to raise the voice of Steven Adams an octave or two, he had a simply awful game, going 1-9 from the field, with only four rebounds in 31:49, and more turnovers (4) than assists (3).
So what does it all mean going forward? Perhaps not that much, despite those Sunday visions of a ten-foot Alice. The task for each team is to stay on an even keel and not have those hallucinations in play once the dream is over. It isn’t just Golden State needing to react with calm and poise, but also for OKC to not get too carried away from that game flow, and remain grounded to the fundamentals of the sport. The Thunder are getting a little better at that, but it is still a weakness.
Will the Warrior confidence be shaken by Sunday’s game flow? I do not believe it will at all – there is a collective team psyche that has been built too strong for that, especially because it is through team play that they have been so successful. Will Steve Kerr have the proper handle to keep them calm, and stay within the flow of who they are? He is on what I believe are the proper talking points –
"You have to move the ball. You have to be patient, especially against their length and athleticism. The quick shots against this team, there's two problems. One is that their length and athleticism, they're probably going to be able to challenge a quick shot because you haven't made them move at all. And then two, you're vulnerable in transition. We always walk a fine line with this team between bad shot and 'all right we can make that, we've got Steph and Klay'. And part of who we are is we're explosive. I don't necessarily want to make 10 passes every possession. If we can get one pass and a good shot, that's great."
It helps towards keeping the calm in that aspects of this setting are not new – the Warriors were down 2-1 in the playoffs twice last year, and had to recoup on the road for Game 4. In those games they handled the Grizzlies and Cavaliers by 30.5 ATS. This Oklahoma City team is far better than those previous opponents, but one need not ask the Warriors to crush the pointspread to cash a ticket, so that becomes relative. At -1.5 I will feed my head with some #715 Golden State in pocket. Yes, OKC just turned in one of the best performances in the history of the NBA playoffs. But that is not the Thunder team I expect to see tonight; they will be good, but the play they exhibited in Game 3 can turn out to be counter-productive to their concentration level, and may have distorted the marketplace.
Item: Matt Harvey vs. Stephen Strasburg Round #2
One of the on-going laments regarding the sharpness of the current MLB marketplace is that the windows of opportunity are so tight. Once upon a time a Play On or Play Against pitcher could keep you in the hunt for a few weeks, now it is often reduced to whatever breeze can blow through in two starts, and possibly a third (those Play On notions for David Price have worked over his last two games, but now look at the absurdity of the Tuesday tariff). That comes front and center tonight when Matt Harvey and Stephen Strasburg have their rematch, after the Nationals dominated the Mets 9-1 in this hookup at CitiField on Thursday. Washington was “In the Sights…” for that one, and while the elements have not changed all that much, the markets have gone far beyond the change in venue in adjusting the price point.
Let’s update the Harvey chart after a game in which his defense did let him down a bit, but he also allowed 10 of the 19 batters he faced to reach base via either a hit or walk -
K/9 BB/9 GB% SWS% ERA FIP
Career 9.3 2.0 45.0 12.0 2.76 2.72
2015 8.9 1.8 46.0 11.6 2.71 3.05
2016 8.0 2.8 39.6 10.7 5.77 3.62
He is down in every category, including velocity, with his fastball averaging 1.2 mph lower than 2015. As noted last Thursday, this is perhaps even more of a mental issue than a physical one, so it may take something good happening on the field before he makes a turn; he may not have the confidence to induce it. That naturally means a desire to stay in play, the question is whether there is enough opportunity, and it is the other side of the equation that allows for it.
Stephen Strasburg is at the opposite end of the pitching spectrum of Harvey, not only throwing the ball well, but because the rewards have been there, growing in confidence. Yes, it is special when there is the alignment of ERA at 2.80, FIP at 2.29 and SIERA at 2.78. But when that also correlates to the team being 9-0 across your starts, with a +37 run differential, it adds to the swagger. Dating back to last season the Nationals are 16-1 in the last 17 Strasburg starts, with a +64 run differential in those games. The Play-Against/Play-On is indeed visible to all here, but the nature of it leaves just enough of a window cracked open for #952 Washington Run Line (7:05 Eastern), with -1.5 +135 available. That is not a bargain, but provides just enough to stay in play with a concept that can carry forward a bit longer.
In the Sights…
There is one more pitch worth a swing early on the Tuesday board, and it was something alluded to yesterday in noting the impact of the Rays losing both Logan Forsythe and Kevin Kiermaier at the same time – one of the better defensive teams in the league can’t help but be less effective with the glovework. Since Jake Odorizzi needs defensive help to be successful, that matters this today, and for you early birds some #976 Miami Team Total Over (12:05 Eastern) fits into the pocket.
Odorizzi shows all signs of being a dependable journeyman, which is not a bad thing, unless you have higher aspirations. His K/9 (6.9) and GB% (37.7) just won’t get a pitcher much higher. Some have thought they detected upside, but that had more to do with the defense behind him, a .278 BABIP shaving some runs off of his average offerings. Now there is a little lesser defense, and the fact that his first pitch of the game will go to Ichiro Suzuki allows me to talk about just how terrific this last cycle has been, Ichiro raking to a 10-13 tune over the last three games, and showing enough spark to not merely be a novelty in a season in which the Marlins were not sure they could get him enough at-bats to reach 3,000 hits. Ichrio won’t maintain this current surge for long, but he does show enough spark to maintain a legit pursuit of that goal.
We don’t need fireworks here, just Miami grinding away at an average starter and below average bullpen.
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