Point Blank – May 2
The Cynics Guide to NBA Playoff Power Ratings (Everybody Knows the Portland/Golden State set-up was wrong, cue Leonard Cohen)…The Hawks can guard plays, but can they guard players...I thought Kawhi Leonard guarded Russell Westbrook pretty well (though Russ won’t admit it)…Johnny comes marching home, to the GABP…
In a better world, Portland and Golden State would not have played yesterday. It was yet another shameless exercise from a league that I thought might at some point slowly rebound from the ethical malaise of the David Stern years, when $$$ consistently outweighed the integrity of the competition at playoff time, but no, not yet. In making the Trail Blazers open that series on the road less than 36 hours after they were leaving the Moda Center on Friday night the league again blatantly chose to put one of its members at a significant disadvantage, and it certainly showed on the court – a team both physically tired, and mentally unprepared, fell down by 20 points in the first quarter, and was never in the hunt.
I bring it up here because it is not merely a rant against an injustice of sport, but because it is something that we have to deal with from a handicapping standpoint, in terms of adjusting power ratings. There is also the accompanying lesson in cynicism, and if we need a seminar on that subject let’s add a dignity to it by working from the top down, the prescient wisdom of Leonard Cohen with “Everybody Knows”, this version live from 1988 -
In some ways Cohen has handled the song even better on late-career tours, adding an added layer of interpretive sophistication that experience brings (you can find a particularly good version on “Live in London” from his 2008 tour), but Cohen is not one that has needed hindsight – he has been rather adept at seeing the world as it is, to a degree that precious few ever reach. Cohen is not cynical, instead highly observant, and for one with such skillful vision our behaviors do indeed paint a portrait best filtered through a somewhat jaundiced eye. For many, he has been the crack in the bell that lets the light in.
Portland did not have a practice in between beating the Clippers and facing the Warriors, Terry Stotts opting to have his team rest and watch some film (he was rather diplomatic about it – “With a 12:30 game, it's going to be pretty simple basketball, pretty simple preparation. As the series goes along, both teams will make adjustments. But they've had some time to think about us. It's going to be a challenge, obviously, but we'll watch a lot of video tonight and tomorrow, have a meeting tomorrow and be ready to tip it up on Sunday”). Could the Hawks and Cavaliers have opened on Sunday instead, giving Atlanta and Portland almost equal hours between rounds? Yes. But that is not the worst. The Trail Blazers and Warriors will quickly meet again on Tuesday, and then guess when Game 3 is? Not until Saturday, the series taking three days off. It is rather comical, but it is also real.
So how do we deal with the end result? When one player out-scores the opposing team in the first quarter (Klay Thompson 18 Portland 17), you know there is an integrity lacking to the proceedings. I downgraded the Trail Blazers a full basket for the setting, but note that they do not get those points automatically returned for Tuesday – now there is the extension of playing six consecutive playoff games with only one day off in between, and three trips in the span.
More on that tomorrow, for now time to head to the Monday board, and the “Game Inside the Game”…
Hawks/Cavaliers #1 – The Hawks can guard plays, but can they guard players?
The Atlanta defense has been a topic here several times over the past couple of months, and let’s run some key numbers again because they matter to each of tonight’s matchups –
Regular Season Defense (PP100)
1. San Antonio 96.6
2. Atlanta 98.8
Post-All Star Break
1. Atlanta 96.8
2. San Antonio 99.3
In both categories the two teams were the only ones in the league under 100. And it is no surprise that they come from the same direction – Gregg Popovich setting a high standard with the Spurs, and Atlanta’s Mike Budenholzer having apprenticed under Pops for 18 seasons, the last 16 as an assistant (he served as video coordinator the first two), and learning many of the tricks to the trade.
Budenholzer’s Hawks play terrific technical defense, and that was a prime topic during the Boston series, when the Celtics were held to 91.3 PP100. There were a couple of games in Boston in which Isaiah Thomas was able to beat them off of great individual play, but Budenholzer adjusted by trapping Thomas, and in the final two games the Celtics could only manage 83 and 92 in a pair of one-sided losses.
But how much does that change now? Stopping Cleveland is not a matter of tactics, but instead talent – the Cavaliers have three individual options that are among the best offensive players at their position in the NBA, and defenses that gamble to stop either James, Love or Irving can find themselves leaving J. R. Smith open for 3-point attempts, which was the “pick your poison” option chosen by Stan Van Gundy. Smith made 17-33 triples in that 4-0 sweep of the Pistons.
During that post-All Star break run in which the Hawks were the league’s best defense (by a wide margin) they faced the Cavaliers twice, going 0-2 SU and ATS and allowing 104.2 PP100. Extend it back to last year’s playoffs and it has been an 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS tally in the matchup. Now add one more layer – in getting swept in the playoffs last May there was still the presence of DeMarre Carroll to guard James, with his role now falling to Kent Bazemore. In those two recent Cleveland wins James scored 63 points, making 25-42 shots.
Even with Carroll available last May they often double-teamed James, and let’s let Kyle Korver set the stage for how that worked out - “That’s what we tried to do in the series last year, and he just found every shooter. They 3-pointed us to death. It’s a totally different scenario. He and Kyrie are both going to have the ball in their hands a lot. They are both great in one-one-one situations. They are both great in pick-and-roll. We have to give them the proper respect that they deserve, but they have a ton of great shooting.”
As for Bazemore, his take on this challenge is rather open as well - “You can’t go in humble. You have to make yourself angry. You have to do whatever it takes to accept that challenge because he’s (James) a freight train. He brings it. He comes with everything he has. You have to do the same to hang in there.”
The Hawk defense may be smart enough, but is it talented enough?
Thunder/Spurs #2 – Can Russell Westbrook find his way (and welcome to the new Spurs World Order, perhaps as Pops envisioned it all along)
There were a couple of unexpected moves from Popovich on Saturday, and both helped to break Game 1 of the series wide open – he used Kawhi Leonard on Westbrook early, and also had his offense pushing the pace much more than during the regular season. Now Billy Donovan needs to counter, and the adjustments will not come easily.
First there is Westbrook, who never looked comfortable in going 5-19 from the field, the Thunder an abysmal -29 over the 29:41 that he played. And Westbrook looked even less comfortable afterwards. Was he going to give Leonard a professional salute, and mentally get ready for Game 2? No. When asked what Leonard did to bother him he offered - “Nothing really. A lot of the shots I missed at the basket against the bigs. I was able to get to my spots and I just missed some layups. They do a good job of helping. Most of the time it's the help-side defender. Me personally, I never look at the guy in front of me to see what's the next move.”
Here is the potential danger zone – will Westbrook focus too much on winning his one-on-one matchup, because his ego has been insulted, instead of doing what it will take for the Thunder to have a better chance to win the game as a team? That matters, so be on the lookout for it in the early stages.
There there is the other side of the court, where San Antonio was not just more effective on offense than would have been projected, but also playing at a higher gear. The Spurs were #27 in the NBA in fast break points per game this season at 10.4, but already had 15 by halftime on Saturday, pushing the pace vs. an often unorganized OKC defense (make sure you note that one reason the Thunder are vulnerable to this is the fact that Westbrook often drives to the basket when the floor is not balanced, leaving them a step behind in terms of getting back on defense).
Of course whether it was via fast break or half-court sets the big offensive key was LaMarcus Aldridge, who was remarkably efficient in scoring 38 points in just 29:32 of court time, and the particular enjoyment Tim Duncan and others got from that is also a significant handicapping issue as well
Is this an “old” team? How about 90 of the 124 San Antonio points coming from players that are 30 or younger. Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobli only took 12 shots the entire game. The efficiency is one thing, but was this pacing something that Popovich was planning on throughout the season? With the NBA’s deepest bench, it certainly is a way to maximize opportunities. That absolutely bears watching as the early flow unfolds tonight.
As for the marketplace, Zig Zag was rendered mute by the Saturday result, the line actually going up a full point, and the Total increased by 2.5, and the handicapping conundrum is the opposite of Atlanta/Cleveland. The Hawks are smart enough, but perhaps not talented enough, while the Thunder have the talent, but may not bring the discipline or smarts.
Item: When Johnny comes marching home
Johnny Cueto’s splits have been written about here several times since he was dealt by the Reds last summer, and the notion of whether he was really a “Home/Away” guy, or instead someone that simply loved pitching in the Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati, where he sports a career 48-22/2.91. What I have found significant is a big gap in strikeout rates – an 8.1 K/9 from this mound vs. a 6.9 at all others, Cueto showing a swagger here despite it not being a pitcher’s park, and this is over a significant sample size. So is there something special about his return to that mound this evening? He is pretty open about it, which you can read here.
That matters, because his early form has been good, the best control rates of his career (1.2 BB/9), and the overall confidence of a 4-1/2.65 with a good team behind him. That leaves a door open against the Reds, because Brandon Finnegan, one of the players the Royals sent to Cincinnati for their short-term leave of Cueto, is struggling too much with his control to work deeply into games. This may not be a short-term issue – Finnegan did not show the ability to throw strikes at AAA last year (4.9 BB/9), and he has already issued 15 free passes across his first 28 innings this season. It is a particular problem tonight because Cingrani, Cotham, Ohlendorf and Wood are all carrying fatigue ratings from the Cincy bullpen, and yet there has been early money to the Reds, that line dropping down into the mid-140’s (-145 at CRIS and clones). It now means that there is something that we can do with it…
In the Sights, MLB…
Want to visualize what a consistent decline looks like?
FIP SIERA
2010 3.06 3.13
2011 3.20 3.66
2012 3.75 4.09
2013 3.82 4.14
2014 4.19 4.18
2015 4.81 4.88
2016 5.51 5.74
That is how a couple of pitching metrics trace the arc of Jered Waver over the last seven campaigns, and those early season “Rate Stats” that I use often are in full alignment for Weaver’s 2016 work – his K/9, GB% and SWS% are all at career worst rates, while his BB/9 is his second-worst since 2009. Yet Weaver has been able to somehow turn that into a 3-0/3.86 in the pitching forms, and that means decent value to step in tonight. So to maximize the opportunities, let’s call it a #953 San Francisco/#968 Milwaukee parlay (7:10 Eastern). You can find as low as -145 and -105 in the same shops to combo it up this morning.
First, let’s give Weaver a due credit – he has out-pitched some of those metrics through a particular style, being able to get a lot of fly ball outs in favorable West Coast ballparks, and does indeed bring a high level of guile. He just does not have the stuff to succeed anywhere else, and we do not have to look at advanced metrics to note his road difficulties the past two seasons – a simple 4-10/5.79 tells the tale. And with Garrett Richards and Matt Shoemaker only lasting 6.1 innings the last two days at Texas, the Angel bullpen behind Weaver brings causes for concern.
Meanwhile Jimmy Nelson has opened 3-2/3.16, his GB% improving for the third straight season, and while he does not have the kind of ceiling that will likely make the All Star break anything but an annual vacation, he shows the stuff to be a solid MLB starter, and be taking that July vacation well into the future. Combined with a bullpen that did not have to tax itself with yesterday's big working margin, and it is enough to hold in check an Angel offense that has opened .239/.307/.366, which may already be an accurate reflection of what this bunch is going to be this season.
Chicago Cubs 200 Prop (May 2): 7
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