Point Blank – February 12
Why I am actually playing the f’ing NBA All Star Game…Pitchers and Catchers report next week…
How is that for a headline? Perhaps preventative medicine, which might cause anyone with a lick of common sense to think twice before clicking the link, but for those of you that did, you can adapt the label of being a curiosity seeker, so that you do not have to feel too badly about yourself.
First, is a notion that does get discussed here rather regularly, the idea being the fact that the oddsmakers are forced to price All Star games, and the stores deal them, means that there can be the occasional opening. Yes, they are fraught with the bankroll peril of randomness being higher, and that is why the edges need to be even stronger before taking the plunge. And for something like the NBA All Star game, which is played with such a high notion of entertaining the fans in mind, one must be aware that long stretches of the game will feature alley-oop passes for dunks against matador defenses.
But there has been a recurring them to the recent games as well – when the fourth quarter sets in, the players do buckle down and go for the win. There is pride and ego involved. With at least that shred of integrity in play, there can be some seriousness to the handicap, and this season there is a handicap to be found.
In yesterday’s post-thread discussion the question was brought up of whether the oddsmakers would properly assess what I think is a significant talent gap between the rosters this season, with an early line of West -6.5 out there that I thought a bit short. But when the numbers began to settle out it instead dropped to -5, and that is the price point at which I believe there is enough to be in play. So let’s get to it, beginning with the starting lineups -
East West
LeBron James Kobe Bryant
Paul George Kevin Durant
Carmelo Anthony Kawhi Leonard
Dwayne Wade Russell Westbrook
Kyle Lowry Stephen Curry
No, Kobe does not belong on current form. but it is his competitive drive in wanting to win his final appearance that can matter, especially as the other members of the West recognize that, and the West wins the other four positions. When you go to the bench I believe the advantage gets even stronger -
East West
DeMaro DeRozan Draymond Green
Paul Millsap James Harden
Andre Drummond Chris Paul
Chris Bosh Klay Thompson
Isaiah Thomas Anthony Davis
Pau Gasol DeMarcus Cousins
John Wall* LaMarcus Aldridge
I put an * next to Wall because I am not sure he will play, after injuring his ankle at Milwaukee on Thursday. Consider him “Probable” for now. If you were drafting a team from the available bench players, might at least the first four guys picked all come from the West?
And then there is the coaching –
East West
Tyronn Lue Gregg Popovich
Although their impact is a bit limited for such an event, to call this the biggest coaching mismatch in the modern history of the All Star game would not be an over-statement. It also matters that this will be the third time in six years for Popovich to be on the West sidelines, winning those last two, and in 2013 his roster included Bryant, Paul, Durant, Aldridge, Harden and Westbrook, and 2011 had Bryant, Paul, Durant and Westbrook. He knows these guys, and Pops even seems to bring some enthusiasm to go through it all again - "Well, everybody looks forward to the All-Star break for a variety of reasons. But in my case, it's a pretty awesome feeling to know that you're going to be in the locker room with some of the best athletes in the world, and it's pretty humbling. So it's kind of cool."
So what really matters here? These games are ultimately decided by which side can better get into their flow, with so many players having to mesh their games with guys they are not familiar with. That means the play of the point guards is essential, especially in this matchup, which lacks dominating big men. That is where I see such an edge for the West, with Curry, Westbrook and Paul all better than any of the East PGs.
There is an additional factor in play, and one that is a prime factor when breaking down college football All Star games – the teamwork considerations. If you find a QB that is working with one of his own WRs, there is an advantage that can matter. The East will have a natural when Lowry and DeRozan are on the floor, something that will also be boosted by the fans in Toronto. But other than that there is only Wade/Bosh. For the West it can be much different – what if Popovich decides to use Curry/Thompson/Green together for some stretches, which will bring a chemistry that the East could struggle to match up against? Of course there is also Durant/Westbrook as well, plus Popovich having Leonard and Aldridge to help the others grasp bits of the San Antonio playbook.
So the West has better starters. The West has far better reserves. The West has more groups of players that are accustomed to working together, and the West has the vastly superior coach, both overall and in terms of being familiar with the processes of this weekend. I think -5 is short for this matchup, so the weekend begins by going “In the Sights…” with something ordinarily off the radar, #841 Western Conference on Sunday night (8:00 Eastern).
About Last Night…
To update from yesterday’s lead, Jason Kidd once again went with Miles Plumlee and O. J. Mayor in the Milwaukee starting lineup, and Michael Carter-Williams and Greg Monroe off the bench, and for the second straight game it led to a Bucks victory, taking them to the All Star break with a little momentum, and still within striking distance of making a run for a playoff berth (their schedule is loaded with home games the rest of the way). But will this necessarily remain the pattern going forward?
The Bucks actually fell behind 27-18 after one quarter, and neither Plumlee nor Mayor were effective. Monroe once again came up being in the reserve role, while actually playing starter’s minutes (33:01), and there are mismatches to be found when he comes off the bench. But for as effective as the reserves are in the new rotation, does Kidd run a risk of digging first quarter holes, as was the case last night? It was 14-6 Washington when Monroe first entered the game, and 16-9 when Carter-Williams made his first appearance. In Tuesday’s win over Boston, Milwaukee trailed 8-4 before Carter-Williams took the floor, and 11-6 when Monroe took off his warmups. The end results have worked, but might these opening salvos cause Kidd to perhaps re-think the rotation?
Pitchers and Catchers report next week…
There is nothing wrong with doing a little product endorsement, especially since the goal is to help the reader, while getting no residual benefits from the recommendation. As such, with many of you getting a little free time over the next week without daily NBA, it can be an opportunity to begin your processes for the 2016 MLB season. I cannot think of a better way to get started than the 2016 Baseball Prospectus,
which is an invaluable tool. Not only is the depth of the insight such that you can get far ahead of the game, but the staff also makes it a breezy read, which is unusual for a tome of this size.
In the Sights, Saturday NCAA…
The timing is not very good for Tad Boyle and his Colorado Buffaloes for today’s early tipoff – key inside cog Josh Scott is hampered by a sprained ankle and has not practiced all week, which will limit him even if he does play, while Tre-Shaun Fletcher sprained an ankle in practice on Wednesday and was only able to play six minutes vs. Washington State on Thursday night, and may not be able to contribute. With those two hobbled the rest of that Thursday game vs. Washington State did not set Colorado up well at all for this quick turnaround, and that helps to get #535 Washington (2:00 Eastern) into play.
Instead of getting an easy win over the Pac 12’s weakest team the Buffaloes were pushed to the limit, needing a three-pointer from George King to get the game to overtime, before they finally escaped 88-81 after two extra periods. Now already facing the shortest recovery cycle for any league game this season, just 40 hours from tipoff to tipoff, the toll of Thursday’s game, especially at the Boulder altitude, should prove to be a significant one. Wesley Gordon (45 minutes), Xavier Talton (44), King (41) and Thomas Akyaziki (38) all played their season-highs in minutes, while Josh Fortune (32) matched his. That toll basically made Friday a wasted day in terms of being able to put in a practice sessions to prepare for Washington, and it was a session this team could have used – even with getting 18 points and 12 rebounds from Scott they were easily handled 95-83 at Seattle in the first meeting, a game in which the Huskies led by as many as 22 points before coasting home.
I have written several times about one of the keys to Washington being ahead of schedule this season – while it is a rotation dominated by freshmen, the fact that so many of those players came from winning high school programs led Lorenzo Romar to believe they would assimilate better, and they have. The Huskies picked up conference road wins at Washington State, UCLA and Arizona State to build confidence for this kind of setting, and note how well they competed at Utah on Wednesday – for a road dog to cover on a night in which the home team goes 10-17 from 3-point range says a lot about their abilities. The fact that the Huskies get an extra day to prepare for this setting is major, and the energy that they bring to the court is the ideal tool to play into what will be tired Colorado legs. I would take the +3.5 that is commonly available (CRIS and clones show +4) for about 70 percent of the ticket, and +150 for the remainder, with no surprise if Washington grabs the scoreboard outright.
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