Point Blank – February 8
What a “Bettor Better Know” – Weekend Hoops
The Hoops weekend that was, and some key considerations you can place into your portfolio for the games ahead, in order to find edges now that the markets turn their full focus to the hardwoods. I will reminisce a bit about Super Bowl 50 tomorrow, although it turned out to be a game devoid of many talking points. Denver’s defense was great, Carolina’s defense was very good, and that was pretty much that.
Item: On Louisville, and the penalties for those Cardinal sins
Sub-Item: Shed no tears for Damion Lee and Trey Lewis
Sub-Sub-Item: And where will Ricky be coaching next season?
I was not shocked by Louisville’s self-imposed penalties on Friday – it was a savvy administration trying to pre-empt the NCAA, to hopefully lessen what is to come. What I was surprised by was the timing, because now those Cardinal signs become a talking point, perhaps ad-nauseam, when they face Duke in front of the ESPN cameras tonight. One might have thought that they would have delayed until the middle of this week, to not have those issues become such a focal point this evening.
So let’s sort through it. With several topics ahead the Monday jukebox will power up to help the ride, today reaching back from some classic old Steely Dan, “Rikki Don’t Lose that Number”, as Mr. Pitino may have to look into his rolodex while planning out his future -
We hear you're leaving, that's ok
I thought our little wild time had just begun
First, despite the portrayals of how emotional the players were in the aftermath of Friday’s announcement, with a particular focus on Damion Lee and Trey Lewis from the Louisville media, you do not need to feel all that sorry for them. How about this from Tim Sullivan of the Louisville Courier - “Denied a last shot at an NCAA tournament, the two graduate transfer guards will end their college careers as martyrs to a system in which punishment does not always fit the crime and rarely reaches the real criminals.”
Martyrs? Lee and Lewis are basketball mercenaries, graduate transfers from Drexel and Cleveland State that were taking advantage of an unfortunate NCAA loophole. Pitino’s take in the off-season was “I’m going into the one-and-done mode. I never thought that I would do that.” And why did he? Because this year’s young team not only did not have a senior, but the only juniors on the roster are Mangok Mathiang and David Levitch. And that is where the ugliness of the University decision comes in – they basically hung Lee and Lewis out to dry, knowing that all other players could play in tournaments in the future, unless the NCAA sanctions are severe, which they may well be. Lee and Lewis were indeed used by Louisville, but that is also because they were using Louisville in the first place.
As for Pitino, his public proclamations throughout this have consistently rung hollow. A micro-manager throughout his career has continued to claim no knowledge of the wrongdoing, but if that does prove to be the case he is left with a rather awkward admission – lack of institutional control. The NCAA likes that one, and may well use it. I can find little sincerity from Pitino’s Friday comment of “It comes as a complete shock to me” after the post-season ban was handed down. How in the hell can it be a shock, given all that has been bandied about in recent months? If this all indeed happened on his watch, and it was his failure to manage Andre McGee and others that led to the self-imposed and likely NCAA sanctions, then Pitno’s punishment should be severe. Might it be enough for him to pack a suitcase? It well could be, although the degree of the infractions might make future employers a bit skittish (he would be welcome at UNLV, one program that would not be overly bothered by the transgressions, but I am not sure how many others).
I will at least give Pinto credit for this bit of perspective, after things settled down a bit – “The system is broken, there’s no question about it. Now, if this team were responsible for this, then they don’t deserve to play in the tournament. But if you’re on Wall Street and your corporation does something wrong, the SEC comes in and fines you. My opinion is the school should be fined $10 million. They shouldn’t be allowed to collect any money from the tournament. The coach should have to take a hit in his salary, 20% or 50% or whatever.”
As for the immediate handicapping aspect, the Cardinals played with a fair amount of energy to easily dispose of Boston College on Saturday, even with Lee sitting out to rest an injured knee, but the short-handed Eagles also did not put up much fight. Tonight that changes. The Cameron Crazies have been given carte blanche to come up with some witticisms that I am actually looking forward to hearing. But for now I have not altered the Louisville power rating at all, in the belief that the players having a chip on their shoulder may negate the damages brought by the loss of their tourney hopes. They are still alive to win the ACC regular-season crown, and as long as that carrot dangles, they do have something to shoot for.
There is a flip side tonight that also matters, and time to update a chart that was the lead topic last Tuesday, in detailing the Duke lack of depth -
Duke ACC games:
SU ATS ATS Margin
1 day off` 0-2 0-2 -20.5
2+ days off 6-2 5-3 -2
The top six players in the Duke rotation turned in 196 of the 200 floor minutes on Saturday, scoring 86 of the 88 points, and grabbing 28 of the 29 rebounds. Even if Louisville was vulnerable tonight, the Blue Devils have not handled these short turnarounds well, and might not take full advantage.
Item: Tyler Ulis played 38 minutes on Saturday
Another topic that was discussed at length last week in terms of NCAA fatigue remains under a prime watch. Once again Ulis was terrific for Kentucky in that rout of Florida, 18 points on 7-12 shooting, 11 assists vs. only two turnovers, with four rebounds and two steals. But despite the Wildcats leading by 18 at halftime, and stretching the margin to 26 in the second half, Ulis was on the court for 38 minutes. This is bordering on coaching malpractice by John Calipari – when your key cog is 5-9/160, there has to be some realization of the toll that heavy workload can take, especially if you hope to still be playing in April. It was the 13th time over the last 16 games that Ulis has gone at least 38 minutes, and it was inexcusable to not find some time for him to sit out with Saturday’s lead being as big as it was.
Coaching malpractice is also an emerging issue in Cleveland…
Item: Cleveland got out-scored 112-76 in the 3rd Quarter over four games last week
Sub-Item: LeBron James made two 3-pointers vs. New Orleans
OK, so it perhaps can be excused to dismiss David Blatt if he had indeed lost the Cleveland locker room – sometimes relationships get beyond repair, and it means time to move on. But what if Tyronn Lue simply is not ready? While the player/coach bonds may be a little better, what if his X’s and O’s acumen is not nearly good enough to take the Cavaliers to where they believe they can go?
This was brought up as a column topic a couple of times last week, and over the course of those four games it did not add up well – the halftime adjustments by the opposing coaches were so much better, leading to a -36 deficit for Cleveland in the third quarter of those games. Down the stretch against Boston on Friday it got particularly ugly, the Cavaliers breaking down badly on defense as the Celtics rallied to win outright.
This is not something that necessarily gets all that much better the rest of the way – Lue is basically learning on the job, all the while various pieces to the puzzle are still trying to be fitted into place. So far he has had the benefit of being a double-figure favorite in four of his nine games, and while the raw talent can still overwhelm some teams, when games require tactical finesse, as was the case vs. Boston, there may continue to be problems. That will not be the case this week, as they host the Kings and Lakers before the All Star break (more on the Sacramento problems in a moment), which means that the markets may not be fully noticing the issues, which is something the shrewd handicapper can be ready to exploit when play resumes.
Of course Lue also faces a particular problem on offense that is becoming more ominous now that the Cavaliers are 50 games into the schedule – the eruption when LeBron James made a 3-pointer with 10:37 left in the third quarter of Saturday’s 99-84 win over New Orleans must be noted. That ended an 0-18 streak for James beyond the arc, dating back to January 25 vs. Minnesota, and over his last 10 games he has gone 4-33 from long range. It continues a pattern of alarming decline -
James 3-point shooting
2013: 40.6
2014: 37.9
2015: 35.4
2016: 26.7
Of players that have taken at least 150 3-pointers this season, James is dead last. The next worst happens to be Kobe Bryant at 27.7 percent. It is understandable for Bryant to still be hoisting those shots given the Laker circumstances, but at some point Cleveland either needs to get better production from James on those attempts, or get those shots out of the playbook.
As for Cleveland’s Monday opponent, how much will the Sacramento playbook be changing in the days ahead?
Item: Do the Kings even listen to George Karl anymore?
Sacramento limps into Cleveland on a 1-7 SU and ATS slide in which the Kings have been beaten four times outright as favorites, and have basically stopped acknowledging that guarding the other team is a part of the game – they have allowed 112 points or more in regulation in six of those eight outings, and in their current 0-2 SU and ATS road trip they allowed 128 at both Brooklyn and Boston, on a frightening 55.9 percent shooting. All this, of course, while rumors run across the Sports Mediaverse that Karl will be on his way out. You can read a good take on that here, and the timing may be just ahead if a move is going to take place, with the All Star break providing a natural transition point.
Although Karl has maintained a professional dignity throughout this, one gets the suspicion that he might not mind the banishment, instead of having to sort through a roster of talented but erratic players that just might not fit all that well under the best of circumstances. It is a difficult handicap in Cleveland tonight because the Kings may be without Rudy Gay and Ben McLemore again, while the Cavaliers likely get Kevin Love back, but probably not Matthew Dellavedova, but if one of Lue’s goals with Cleveland was to get the Cavaliers into a faster pace, this is one night on which the opposition will extend the invitation. It may not be Karl necessarily doing it, but the Sacramento players deciding on their own, not paying much heed to game plans on this trip (they have allowed a shocking 79 first-quarter points across those two games, Boston’s Sunday 46 being the NBA season-high).
Item: Bulls have lost nine games that they led by five points or more in the 4th Quarter
Lue is not the only one having to learn the role of being an NBA Head Coach on the fly, you can also look to Billy Donovan in Oklahoma City and Fred Hoiberg in Chicago. Hoiberg in particular deserves a focus today, for while if you only looked at the final score of the Bulls losing 112-105 at Minnesota on Saturday, a defeat that does not look all that alarming considering that Jimmy Butler did not play, the way it laid out continues an ominous pattern.
Chicago led the Timberwolves 105-100 with 2:30 remaining, and got closed out 12-0 the rest of the way. Being without Butler can explain some of that, as does having to play a back-to-back coming out of Denver, which indeed taxed a depleted roster. You could see that in terms of effort – there were eight available rebounds over the final 4:30 of play, and Minnesota got all of them. But that defeat also added another notch to an unfortunate table that is tarnishing Hoiberg’s first NBA campaign – it marked the ninth time already this season the Bulls have lost a game in which they led by five points or more in the fourth quarter.
Some of that must indeed be blamed on the injuries that have not only left Chicago short-handed, but have inhibited the ability to develop much chemistry. But do not fully excuse the failures because of that – even with those personnel issues they were good enough to have those leads in the first place. Hoiberg’s tactical end-games have left a lot to be desired.
Item: Pittsburgh has lost four of the last seven ACC games by 13 or more (two at home)
Once upon a time the notion of a Jamie Dixon team losing badly was almost unheard of, as was losing at all at home. In the first nine years after the opening of the Peterson Events Center the Panthers lost 12 games; they have now lost 12 over the last three seasons alone. It just so happens that those three seasons came after they joined the ACC, and after Saturday’s lackluster loss to Virginia there is some perspective being developed. The Panthers just are not that “street tough” anymore.
It isn’t as though the ACC is more difficult than the Big East, but it has been a transition in a different aspect – Dixon competed well in the Big East because he did a masterful job of recruiting the New York metro area. The Panthers developed a brand of playing physical hard-nosed basketball, and that region supplied a lot of players that not only fit the protoype, but relished going to Pittsburgh – you were not leaving home to play at Pittsburgh, but instead offered the opportunity to play in front of friends and family on conference trips to Seton Hall and St. John’s, and also the annual pilgrimage to Madison Square Garden for the conference tourney. The pipeline got built, and it was strong, but it may not be there anymore.
Dixon only has one roster player from that target territory now, junior guard Chris Jones, from Teaneck, New Jersey. Is that showing the impact of the conference switch on the recruiting? Do players form that urban area have a lesser interest in the ACC because of the geographical realities involved? This is going to be interesting to follow along, because in losing four of the last seven ACC games by 13 points or more, there is indeed a visible talent gap, and whereas a Dixon team could often be counted on to make up for a talent gap by playing with grit, it also means the particular character of those players on the roster is changing as well.
And then there was the flip side of Saturday’s equation…
Item: Virginia’s win at Wake Forest ignited the Cavaliers
Sub-Item: Wake Forest’s loss to Virginia snuffed out the Deacons flame
Of course some of Pittsburgh looking so bad on Saturday was how well Tony Bennett’s Cavaliers played. They were a feature topic in a Monday review a month ago, noting their disappointing opening to ACC play, outright losses in the chalk role vs. Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech and Florida State. They were headed for another two weeks ago, trailing 70-63 at Wake Forest with 0:15 remaining, but in a rather miraculous scramble three different players hit triples on the final three possessions, including a banked prayer by Darius Thompson at the buzzer, and combined with some awful FT shooting by the Deacons the final became 72-21.
The aftermath of moments like that can be huge, and in this case it was. Virginia ignited, the Cavaliers routing Louisville by 16 and then Pittsburgh by 14 on the road, getting back to the kind of basketball they were capable of. That often happens when a good team gets a break, so be on the look-out for it.
It is the other side of the equation where the impact can be even greater, and in this case it certainly has been. Wake Forest has gone on an 0-3 SU and ATS slide since then, falling to the spread by a collective 42.5 points, each game under-performing the market expectations in double figures. What has been particularly alarming is an unwillingness to compete much at all in the second half after falling behind - in those three games the Deacons have been trounced 149-105 after intermission.
The following, from senior Devin Thomas after Saturday’s awful second half vs. Florida State, shows exactly what the Eye Test was seeing - "It’s both ends, it’s everybody. We’re all just worried about ourselves. Now we’re in the point now where we were playing well – we started off 8-2 – coach only had to coach X’s and O’s. Now we’re not playing well and now he has to coach effort and energy. You can’t coach that really. I probably would have quit if I had to coach effort and energy every day. I don’t know how you’re supposed to coach that. I don’t think anyone in this whole world knows how to coach effort and energy. That’s where we’re at right now.”
It indeed is not easy to coach effort and energy, which makes the remainder of this season a major challenge for Danny Manning, and also for the serious handicapper in terms of power ratings - the earlier positive Wake results do not mean all that much anymore.
In the Sights…
There is an axiom that can lead to the occasional kill spot on the betting boards, and it is a simple one “Most truly awful teams are even worse than they appear to be, but they get the scoreboard benefit of the opposition rarely going all out against them.” It makes a great deal of sense, particularly in college basketball, where the long season calls for teams to take the occasional night off. Big East teams have been doing that against St. John’s this season, the Red Storm opening 0-11 as Chris Mullin tries to cobble together a patchwork roster, but they are a somewhat respectable 5-6 ATS because few opponents have gone out of their way for the rout. I believe that changes tonight, with #522 Georgetown (7:00 Eastern) bringing a different mind-set to the table, so we can take advantage of those misleading Red Storm results, the Monday markets obliging by reducing -15.5 down to -14.
John Thompson is fielding a good Hoya team this season, but the schedule has been a difficult one, facing Maryland, Wisconsin, Duke and Syracuse before Big East play began, and then taking a trip to Connecticut in the middle of the league schedule. That has left them under-rated at 13-11, and off of three straight league losses there is absolutely no looking past this setting, especially since they do not play again until Saturday. It is time to not just get a “W”, but also the return of some missing swagger.
Note that there is not much market adjustment at all for the swing in home courts from the 93-73 Georgetown win at Madison Square Garden earlier, when the Hoyas closed at -9, and led by as many as 28 points. It shows the lull that can happen to the betting markets, believing in those St. John’s final scores, despite the fact that many nights the results could have been much worse had the opposition cared (which really was the case in the first meeting between these two). Now that limited Red Storm rotation has to play in a “two in three” Big East setting for the first time, after being pummeled by 33 vs. Butler on Saturday, which leaves them ripe to be blown out, on a night in which Thompson and the Hoyas may well be looking for just that kind of result.
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