Point Blank – January 18
What a “Bettor Better Know” – MLK Day/Weekend Hoops…With a little Sam Moore to guide you along the way…If someone asks “Tennis Anyone?” you might want to just say no…
The basketball weekend that was, along with a look at the Monday that will be, filing away some key items that can lead to some value over the betting boards ahead…
Item: MLK Day, those Monday matinees, and the shifting sands in the Totals hour glass
The NBA’s idea to play a lot of afternoon tipoffs on Martin Luther King Day is a reasonable marketing tool, trying to take advantage of the fact that many businesses and schools are closed. It mostly leads to sparse crowds, however, and that means some antiseptic environments, which combined with the sluggish legs that the players bring to the starting times, can lead to some ugly basketball. As such, note that the Under’s in these games continue to slowly grind away – since 2008 it has been a 38-28* run in that direction in regulation play (there was an OT that reversed an outcome) in the MLK afternoon tipoff’s.
OK, so when you see that * you know that there is going to be a caution forthcoming, and there will be. But as we set this particular day up, let’s have the appropriate musical background for your reading, from the one and only Sam Moore, “They Killed a King” -
While early starts in general can be a nuisance in this league, there are also teams that may fare even worse because of the tipoff time. There are a pair from the Western Conference forced to tipoff early on the East Coast, Portland and Utah, although while the Trail Blazers have at least been in the Eastern time zone for several days, it is not easy to statistically prove that they were actually at Philadelphia on Saturday. The Jazz might have an added degree of vulnerability, having whipped the Lakers at home on Saturday night, and then making the long trek to Charlotte, for a game that will begin a little after noon on their body clocks.
But, here it comes…
* - Before you get too excited about those prospects, take a look at the early trading and you can see the market anticipation – Utah/Charlotte has dropped from 190 to 186, and Portland/Washington from 214.5 to 211.5. Hence the continuing insistence on sorting through trends carefully – all it takes is a little market tweaking and something that has seemingly been strong over a fair sample has the rate of return significantly diminished, or taken away entirely. That may well be the case here. In another year or two, I may even wake up on this day looking to fade the adjustments and play an Over or two. But even if you can’t profit from the day games, the NBA still brings something special this evening...
Item: The best basketball will be played tonight
Now here it comes, Warriors/Cavaliers Round #2, a game that will be played at a playoff level of intensity because both sides need for it to be that way. For as brilliant as the Golden State opening to this season was, the Warriors find themselves only precariously ahead of the Spurs for the Western Conference #1 seed, while for Cleveland there is a major psychological need to be able to get a win vs. this nemesis.
The first question is whether Round #1, the 89-83 Warrior grinder of a win on Christmas Day means much of anything, and I am not attaching much weight to it. It was only Kyrie Irving’s third game of the season, and he was just 4-15 from the field, missing all six 3-point attempts. And as for the Cavaliers finally facing Golden State with Kevin Love on the court, he was 5-16, including an 0-5 collar from long range. So how could Cleveland still be competitive on the scoreboard with those turning in that 0-11 beyond the arc? Because the Warriors did not shoot well either, just 5-18 from long range. Ultimately there is not much to attach to that one, especially since the lineups have changed, David Blatt now giving Tristan Thompson the starting nod at #5, with Timofey Mozgov coming off the bench.
The Cavaliers have only played two home games since them, just finishing a stretch in which 10 of 12 were on the road, but for this setting they have had the bonus of a couple of days to prepare, including a Sunday practice to put in a game plan. Meanwhile the Warriors will be on their ninth straight court change, with this being their seventh game on as many different courts, including all four time zones, in the last 11 days. It is rare to see them in an underdog role, but while the home team is positioned to bring their “A” game tonight, the scheduling sequence will make it a real test for Golden State. Cleveland was deemed worthy of a slice of pizza for an added entertainment root at San Antonio on Thursday night, and at -3 or less there would be nothing wrong with another slice on the Cavs tonight, but nothing more than that. At -2, should it show, you can add some toppings to it.
Item: Do the Heat have their heads in the right place?
One team that will not play today is Miami, and that may be a good thing – the Heat badly need a day off. There was not much left in the tank at Oklahoma City last night, which can be excused somewhat for a group that was playing the last leg of six straight on the road, over three time zones. But do not allow physical fatigue to let them off the hook in your ratings.
Take a look at how the Heat were talking about themselves several days before getting to Oklahoma City, after a 16-point lead against the Clippers turned into a 14-point defeat. From Chris Bosh - "It's unacceptable. Our mentality right now is really, really bad and we have to fix it. It’s the same thing that we have been saying, been talking about: game-to-game focus. … We are unrealistic right now if we think this is the effort and focus we are going to bring day to day. We’re mistaken.” And from Dwayne Wade - “Guys have to want it. If we don’t, this could be awful. We could lose a lot of ballgames this month and see ourselves outside the playoff picture in no time.”
?The reason I bring this up is that it was not really the end of a road trip at Oklahoma City on Sunday, but merely another leg through a long grind. The Heat only return home for one game, vs. Milwaukee tomorrow, then are back out on the road for five straight, and eight of their next nine, in an overall stretch that will call for 18 consecutive court changes. Problems are often fixed at home on the practice floor, but unless the All Star break is counted, they do not get consecutive days off at home until March 15 and 16.
Injuries have played a significant part in the recent struggles, and saving this past week from being a complete disaster was gutting out a close win at Denver without Wade and Goran Dragic. They were also without Dragic’s back-up, Beno Udrih, on Sunday night. If their mental state is as fragile as the key cogs say that it is, they bear watching closely through a schedule stretch does not offer them many opportunities to make corrections. Erik Spoelstra laid it out solemnly after last night’s defeat – “We needed to be able to show stability in the midst of a storm.” The Heat didn’t.
Item: It is time to buy North Carolina futures
I am usually not one for Futures, with the vig in those markets such that attempts to find genuine value rarely bring anything substantial in return. Having said that, if you can find 7-1 or better on the Tar Heels to win the National Championship, I believe that is worth an investment. The frustrating part from this past Saturday is that the evidence of their upside showed through a losing ticket, but there is a lot to like going forward.
Here is how it lays out – there simply are no great teams this season, one of those interludes in the “One-and-Done” era that is going to happen every so often. No young team is going to raise up to the level that Kentucky and Duke did last year. The best to this point have been Oklahoma and Kansas, but as written several times, this is more because they had circumstances that would get them out of the gate well (the experience for the Sooners, and that extended off-season development through the University Games in Korea for the Jayhawks). These are good teams that may already be playing near their peak, and may not get better, while the difficulty of the Big 12 campaign will also cause some wear and tear. There are no major powers in the Big 10, SEC or Pac 12; meanwhile Carolina’s competition is the ACC is as weak as it has been in quite some time, with Duke and Virginia both falling below expectations.
So the window is open. Here is what enables the Tar Heels to climb through it – not only was the depth expected to be solid, but having Marcus Paige miss six games, and Kennedy Meeks, seven gave Roy Williams even more opportunity to develop the others. It showed on Saturday, despite their failure to get the money vs. N. C. State. Paige had one of the worst games of his career, going 1-9 from the field, including 0-6 from 3-point range, and only had three assists. Leading scorer Brice Johnson also contributed little, just six points and two rebounds in an outing reduced by foul trouble. Yet with the two key cogs having dismal performances, they still beat N. C. State by a dozen. That speaks volumes about their upside, and one of the other benefits of Paige and Meeks missing time with injuries is that they will be fresher come tournament time than many of the players they will be up against.
And part of the rest of the ACC being weaker than it has been in quite some time will be on display tonight…
Item: The Syracuse lack of depth shows, even in blowouts
Sub-Item: The Orange are still about as deep as Duke
When Jim Boeheim returned to the sidelines last week, in assessing the general state of his team, and in particular how many minutes Mike Gbinjie was having to play, he made the kind of comment one can expect from the veteran coach, who has learned to color his points well - "He's not coming off the floor. He can lay an egg. He can have a heart attack out there. He's not coming off the floor.''
It was easy to understand that when Syracuse was stepping up against superior competition, opening 0-4 in ACC play, but the lack of depth behind Gbinjie was more apparent in back-to-back comfortable wins, when the Orange dominated Boston College and Wake Forest by a combined 50 points. Gbinjie had to go 39 minutes vs. the Eagles, then 36 vs. the Demon Deacons, taking his count to 232 over six ACC games. Just how awful is this bench when the lead never dipped below 20 points over the final 6:54 vs. BC last Wednesday, and Gbinjie could still only leave the floor for a single minute?
Ordinarily this is something that could be exploited when playing back-to-back road games in a Saturday/Monday cycle, especially when that second leg is at Duke, this time a seemingly angry Blue Devil bunch off of being beaten 99-95 by Notre Dame at Cameron Indoor Stadium on Saturday. But Mike Krzyzewski faces major issues in terms of depth himself this season, with the Blue Devils being limited to basically a six-man rotation right now. They got worn down badly on defense in allowing Notre Dame to out-score them 50-41 after intermission on Saturday, and that was after a halftime leading turned into a defeat at Clemson on Wednesday.
The Duke bench produced two points and two rebounds vs. Notre Dame. That was all. While there will usually be images of past greatness running through the minds of bettors as they think about that program, this is a limited bunch that just does not have the kind of upside usually seen in those uniforms. Perhaps it is best made evident by focusing on games in which the opposition has been good enough to put up a battle – in six settings this season in which the line was under double digits, the Blue Devils are 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS. In three of the four outright losses the Blue Devils were favored.
Item: The Ohio State roster brings skill, but what about will?
For the precociously young Buckeyes to open 4-2 in Big 10 play could be viewed as a success – they won the three times they were favored, and pulled one upset of the three underdog opportunities. There is also another way to look at it – when they were in the lead, or at least in the hunt, they competed well. When they lost contact they lost their focus, not showing much heart to compete, or to even try to keep developing. Last Sunday they took a hard early punch from Indiana and never got in the game, falling by 25 points as +6, and then this past Saturday they were mauled 100-65 at Maryland, trailing by as many as 44 points in the process.
That marked the worst loss ever for a Thad Matta team, and there are not many contenders for that dubious honor, because Matta’s squads have consistently brought some mental toughness and basketball sophistication. But it is not easy to create that with a roster that does not have a senior, only one junior in Marc Loving, and the rest filled out by freshmen and sophomores. Here is the way that Maryland’s Melo Trimble succinctly reviewed them after Saturday’s blowout - “I could tell they’re not mature yet. They just let the game get away. They started putting their heads down, not being coachable, and when teams get like that, that’s when we’re supposed to take advantage.”
When I read that from Trimble, especially the “not being coachable”, just about every handicapping alarm that can sound went off. It is indeed possible that with such a big roster turnover Matta may have a group that is physically gifted, but lacks a maturity to play well together and develop. And when you begin hearing the following from the Ohio State players, it adds fuel to that fire. First from Keita Bates-Diop – “We’ve got a lot to work on. Consistency, playing harder, effort, all the little things you don’t need talent for, we’re not bringing.” And Jae’Sean Tate - “We’ve got to come with a better mindset. If that’s preparing the night before or a couple days before, we’ve got to get that mindset and focus. We’ve got to have the mindset to come out and fight from tip to finish.”
Ohio State will still power-rate well based on reputation, the 4-2 in the Big 10, plus that non-conference win over Kentucky (which does not actually mean all that much anymore). But the Buckeyes may not be where those ratings suggest they are.
Item: So you want to bet the Australian Open?
I don’t dabble much in tennis, unless offered some good info by someone that does. But for those of you all geared up to bet the Australian Open, here is a cautionary tale about what you may be getting into.
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